Canadiens Analysis
Canadiens Mythbusting – Nick Suzuki Is A Number One Centre
Even though Montreal Canadiens captain Nick Suzuki has done a fantastic job dragging his team into the playoff race this season, the same question continues to muddy the waters in regard to the 25-year-old forward’s impact.
Is Suzuki a No.1 centre in the NHL?
Logically, there are 32 No.1 centres in the NHL, which means yes, Suzuki is in fact a No.1 centre by definition.
But let’s take it a step further.
Montreal Canadiens Analysis – Nick Suzuki’s Production
The first thing we’ll evaluate is Suzuki’s production this season.
Raw production totals may not move the needle for some analysts, and we’ll get into the finer details a little later in this article, but you’d have a hard time suggesting Suzuki is better than 31 other centres if he could not provide more offence than his counterparts.
With that in mind, as it stands, Nick Suzuki has 71 all-situation points this season. That’s good for 9th among centres.
But what about his even-strength production? Suzuki has 37 ES points this season, good for 13th among centres.
If we break it down further, his 13 ES goals place him in a tie with Nathan MacKinnon for 33rd among centres, while his 24 ES assists rank 7th.
Therefore, we can safely say that yes, Suzuki is clearly a No.1 centre when discussing his production. You could even argue he’s in the top half of the cutoff, but we’re not here to make that argument, at least not yet. That being said, it would be an easier argument to support than suggesting he’s not a No.1 centre, but I digress.
Nick Suzuki’s Impact On Underlying Numbers
Production is great, but as we all know, there’s a lot more to hockey than just producing.
To get a better idea of his impact on the team’s underlying numbers, we’re going to take a look at a metric I haven’t used very often on this site.
Goals Above Replacement (GAR) keeps a bevy of statistics in mind in an attempt to establish a better overview of a certain player’s impact. For a detailed breakdown, make sure to visit Evolving Hockey’s GAR primer.
The top two centres in the league in GAR happen to play on the same team, which is a hell of a spoiler, but you probably already knew Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are excellent centres.
As it stands, Nick Suzuki ranks 10th overall in the entire league when it comes to his GAR. That’s not just centres, that’s every player in the NHL.
If we isolate the top NHL centres, Suzuki ends up as the fifth-best centre in the league.
Leon Draisaitl – 24.9
Connor McDavid – 20.6
Tim Stutzle – 17.3
Aliaksei Protas – 17.1
Nick Suzuki – 16.9
Sam Reinhart – 16.7
Nathan MacKinnon – 16.6
Gab Vilardi – 16.3
Jack Eichel – 16.2
John Tavares – 15.8
Expected Goals Above Replacement
To take it a step further, we can check out his xGAR, which is the expected goals above replacement. This metric will let you know whether a player’s GAR is sustainable or not.
Suzuki’s xGAR (16.2) is currently 23rd in the entire league, including all positions.
To put a fine point on his impressive impact, Suzuki is tied for 13th among centres. There’s very little discrepancy between his expected and actual GAR, meaning that this isn’t based on luck.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Even if we ignore Suzuki’s fantastic endurance, not to mention his penchant for never missing a game, it’s quite clear that he’s not just a top forward in the league.
It shouldn’t even be a discussion at this point.
Based on the facts, you could probably put together a solid argument to suggest he’s among the top 15 centres in the league, but that’s a topic for another day.
Hockey analysis tends to be rather slow in its application, and out-of-town outlets haven’t been paying close attention to Suzuki’s form in recent years, which explains why many are not ready to admit Suzuki is a No.1 centre.
We should note that Nick Kypreos is far from the only person to suggest Suzuki is not among the league’s best centres, and Justin Bourne did go on to suggest Suzuki is a No.1 centre, something that was not clearly represented in the tweet below. He concluded Suzuki is a top 15 centre, which is what our analysis confirmed.
Nick Kypreos: “When the Habs contend for the Stanley Cup, I’m not even sure Nick Suzuki is a #1 centre for me.”
Justin Bourne: “Yeah you’re probably right…He’s probably the 25th best centre in the league or something you know?”
Nick Suzuki is 8th in points among NHL centres. pic.twitter.com/v8Fmrhv6Cb
— /r/Habs (@HabsOnReddit) March 20, 2025
But once you toss those tired narratives aside and focus on the facts, the truth becomes rather clear.
Some will attempt to denigrate his impact by saying he would not be able to have as much success on a better team, but that suggestion flies in the face of logic. If Suzuki can be a No.1 centre on a bad or mediocre team, he can clearly do the same on a team that would provide him with better teammates. Playing on the mediocre team is much harder than playing for a Stanley Cup contender.
There’s absolutely no grey area in this particular discussion
Nick Suzuki is clearly a No.1 centre in the NHL.
All Montreal Canadiens and Nick Suzuki statistics via Evolving Hockey.
BEST PLAYER ON A UPCOMING TEAM
clearly a top 10 center in this league… and he has had to do it without having a legit 2C ever behind him, so he has tougher match-ups rgularly than almost any other 1C in the league…. his leadership, 200 foot game, along with his production and being our iron man , make it clear to anyone that watches him play.
Who would ever listen to Nick Kypreos? He was an idiot as a player, and he still is one. He has zero credibility as a sports commentator. Suzuki is definitely a #1 centre.
Let’s just say Kypreos is not the only one that holds that opinion, but he’s a big enough name that he won’t get upset if I point out that his opinion is dated.
Nice read – thanks Marc. Yup Suzuki is under the radar. He just seems to get better and better on a very deceptive path.
Not large in height but wins most body contact/ puck battles, not the fastest skater but efficient in movement/ path to the puck. Think his hands, his shot and his vision/ passing are clearly elite. And while he, like most of the young Canadiens, can miss a defensive coverage this does not happen because of laziness, it happens because a good play/ player beat him. The good news is he learns from those plays.
Think Bergeron won a couple of Cups before media types recognized him. And i am “okay” with a few Toronto media missing the mark if Suzuki has Bergeron’s experience in the game. And shoould we be surprised – Toronto media has been analyzing Leafs since 1967 – not much help to them.
Suzuki’s the real deal and it will be exciting to see how Demidov, Hage fit in the next 12-24 months. Still need a few RHD to step up and Gulhe needs another year to build his strength and hopefully stay healthy.
Mix in 1-2 “surprises” and this team caan take another 5-7 steps up the league standings regardless of what happens this year.
And it should be noted that he was a significant candidate for team Canada behind Sid, Nate and Connor, who might be the top 3 centers in the nhl over the past 25 years. Rarified air to be in that discussion. He has entered his prime and he will have the best surrounding cast of his tenure in the years ahead. I would not bet against a 100 point ceiling.
Don’t be shocked if he makes the Canadian Olympic team.
I am one of the wromgish people who for several years viewed Suzuki as an excellent second line center. I admit that I was wrong now, as Nick is certainly an excellent number one center.
Most of the Toronto media types have zero clue about hockey,including idiot Kypreos. They have nothing good to say about the Habs at all, even if it’s obvious. These clowns will soon be talking about a Habs cup win, while the maple laffs continue to bow out in the first round . You heard it here first?