Updated Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds: The Final Stretch

At the start of the 2024-25 season, the concept of participating in playoff hockey was a long shot for the Montreal Canadiens.

However, once the team acquired defenceman Alexandre Carrier, not to mention Patrik Laine’s excellence on the powerplay, things started to improve. If we’re being perfectly honest, Lane Hutson’s presence has been the most important add to the lineup, and it doesn’t hurt that Nick Suzuki is playing the best hockey of his career.

Add a few crucial wins to the mix, including the team’s 6-3 win over the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday, and suddenly the Canadiens find themselves in the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference.

Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds

Of course, their grasp on that final spot is tenuous at best. The Rangers are one point behind, the New York Islanders, Detroit Red Wings, and Columbus Blue Jackets are three points back.

That being said, the Rangers, Blue Jackets, and Red Wings have all played more games than the Canadiens, while the Islanders have played the same number (67), giving the Habs the inside track in the playoff race.

Different outlets will suggest different odds. For example, Money Puck is saying the Canadiens have a 31 percent chance to make the playoffs. Hockey Reference is a little more bullish on Montreal’s playoff hopes, which are currently 49.5 percent on their site.

For this article, we will use Sportlogic’s odds, as they more or less split the difference.

According to Mike Kelly, Montreal’s playoff odds are in the 43 percent range. That may not sound great, but once we compare their odds to the teams chasing the Habs, the outlook suddenly looks much better.

Playoff odds… pic.twitter.com/3il4F3NcVS

— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) March 19, 2025

Strength of Schedule

With fewer than 20 games left on the docket for every NHL team, the remaining strength schedule will come into play in a major way. For example, the Senators have the easiest strength of schedule (32nd) in the league, which means their playoff spot is essentially guaranteed from a statistical standpoint. According to Sportlogic, Ottawa’s playoff odds are above 90 percent.

As for the Habs and the teams chasing them, the strength of schedule is as follows:

Detroit Red Wings: 1st

New York Islanders: 4th

Columbus Blue Jackets: 9th

New York Rangers: 12th

Montreal Canadiens: 19th

As you can see, the Canadiens have a mid-pack strength of schedule (SOS), which leans on the easy side since it ranks 19 out of 32. Making the playoffs won’t be a picnic, but the remaining schedule clearly favours the Habs.

The Red Wings have the most difficult SOS, with the Islanders not too far behind. The Blue Jackets have a top 10 SOS, while the Rangers are just outside the top 10.

In other words, even though the Habs don’t have the easiest SOS, compared to teams attempting to catch them in the standings, it’s quite the boon.

Remaining Opponents

Of the 15 remaining games on the docket for the Montreal Canadiens, seven are against teams currently in a playoff spot: Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes (x2), Florida Panthers (x2), Ottawa Senators, and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Eight are against teams currently on the outside looking in: New York Islanders, St-Louis Blues, Philadelphia Flyers (x2), Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks.

Seeing as the remaining games against quality teams include a pair of double headers, Montreal’s playoff chances may come down to how well they play against the Hurricanes and Panthers. The good news is the Canadiens have fared quite well against the defending Stanley Cup Champions, as evidenced by their recent 3-1 win on Saturday.

There are also a few important matchups against non-playoff teams, most notably Thursday’s game against the Islanders, one of the teams that can still catch the Habs.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

All things considered, even though the team’s odds are somewhere in the 45 percent range, the Montreal Canadiens are in a fantastic position in regard to potential playoff hockey, especially compared to their counterparts.

It goes to show that Kent Hughes’ decision not to move out spare parts in exchange for mediocre picks was the right move. Sure, they could have disrupted the team chemistry and morale for a late second-round pick, but there’s no value there from an experience standpoint.

MUST READ: Canadiens Walk The Trade Deadline, Reward Team For Encouraging Results

Participating in meaningful hockey down the stretch, however, does wonders when it comes to growing as a team and learning to win, two things every rebuilding franchise hopes to establish.

All Montreal Canadiens Strength of Schedule information via Tankathon.