Updated Canadiens Playoff Odds: Habs Control Their Destiny

There are just 13 games left on the docket for the Montreal Canadiens, and while they still hold onto the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, the situation is far from comfortable.

Both the New York Islanders and the New York Rangers are just one point back of the Habs, while the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Detroit Red Wings are still very much in the mix.

Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds

Fortunately for the Habs, they have games in hand compared to all the teams that are chasing them. The Islanders, Red Wings, and Blue Jackets have played one additional game, while the Rangers have played two additional games.

The last time we discussed the team’s playoff odds, Money Puck suggested the Canadiens only had 31 percent chances to make the playoffs. Those odds have improved significantly, with the Habs currently owning a 49 percent chance of qualifying for springtime hockey.

Here’s how their odds stack up compared to the teams below them in the playoff race:

Montreal Canadiens – 49%

New York Rangers – 24.2%

New York Islanders – 23.8%

Columbus Blue Jackets – 9.4%

Detroit Red Wings – 7.1%

Strength of Schedule

The Habs have a significant advantage over their counterparts, and much of it has to do with the remaining strength of schedule (SOS).

The Canadiens only have 13 games left to play this season, therefore the remaining schedule will be one of the most important factors in their quest for playoff hockey. They’re also dealing with the easiest strength of schedule of all remaining teams, while the Red Wings, Islanders, and Blue Jackets are among the top 10 teams when it comes to the quality of the opponents they’ll face.

The strength of schedule for the teams competing for the Eastern Conference Wild Card spot is as follows:

Detroit Red Wings: 1st

New York Islanders: 4th

Columbus Blue Jackets: 8th

New York Rangers: 15th

Montreal Canadiens: 23rd

The Canadiens having a much easier SOS doesn’t guarantee playoff hockey, but it does suggest they have the inside track compared to the other Eastern Conference teams.

Remaining Opponents

Of the 13 remaining games, seven will feature teams that are currently in a playoff position. It’s worth noting the Habs will face the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers twice. Montreal has done much better than expected when facing the Panthers and Hurricanes this year. They’re yet to lose against the defending Stanley Cup champions, while their last game against the Hurricanes resulted in a 4-0 win.

Playoff Opponents: Blues, Hurricanes x2, Florida Panthers x2, Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs.

Non-Playoff Opponents: Philadelphia Flyers (x2), Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Even though the Canadiens only collected two points in their recent overtime and shootout losses, they’re still in an excellent position to make the playoffs.

49% may not seem like a comfortable number, but in this case we have to keep the odds from competing teams in mind. No team comes close to matching Montreal’s odds, with the New York clubs clocking in at roughly 25%.

This means the Canadiens essentially control their own playoff destiny, a rare sentence for a team that undertook a complete rebuild just a few years ago.

All Montreal Canadiens Strength of Schedule information via Tankathon.