Canadiens: Guhle Set To Return, Hutson And Struble Thriving

Montreal Canadiens defenceman Kaiden Guhle is nearing a return to play, connoting a change in pairings is inevitable. Martin St-Louis will not keep one of his most trusted defencemen on the sidelines, even if the Habs have played quite well in his absence.

However, St-Louis struck gold when he paired Lane Hutson with Jayden Struble, and he’d be wise to avoid breaking up one of the best pairings the team has had since the rebuild began.

To give you a better idea of how well Struble has played now that he’s no longer paired with David Savard, we can simply take a look at the underlying numbers from the first pairing.

ON TOPIC: Finding A Role For Jayden Struble Means Keeping Him Away From Savard

Lane Hutson and Jayden Struble Statistics

With Hutson and Struble on the ice, the Canadiens have controlled 54.5 percent of the shots (CF%), an excellent result when we consider the team average is just 47.8 percent.

Their elite performances seem sustainable, as they’ve also managed to control almost 58 percent of the expected goals. The Canadiens team average is 47.2 percent.

But what about high-danger chances? It’s been a significant issue for the Canadiens since the start of the rebuild.

Well, Hutson and Struble bucked the trend there, too. They control 56.1 percent of the high-danger chances while they’re on the ice, while the team average is 46.1 percent.

And finally, let’s take a look at a very simple metric: goal share.

Strong underlying numbers are great, but at the end of the day, a good pairing will control the goals.

With that in mind, the Hutson and Struble pairing has controlled over 58 percent of the goals, compared to the team average of 46.4 percent.

Simply put, when those two are on the ice, the Habs hold a tremendous advantage in every single important metric. When they’re not, the Habs struggle to control the play.

Montreal Canadiens Options For Kaiden Guhle’s Return

While the first pairing thrived, the second pairing of Mike Matheson and Alexandre Carrier struggled mightily. That’s what happens when you end up absorbing a lot of the hellish minutes left behind due to Guhle’s injury.

If we base our decision on the previously established numbers, pairing Guhle with Carrier seems to be the best bet. While together, those two held an edge in all the aforementioned statistical categories, whereas Carrier and Matheson have produced below-replacement stats in Guhle’s absence.

That being said, Matheson and Guhle controlled almost 55 percent of the shots when they were paired together earlier in the year, giving St-Louis two decent options for a pairing including Guhle.

By replacing either Carrier or Matheson on the second pairing, the Habs would also be able to improve their third pairing, which is currently Arber Xhekaj and David Savard.

We’ve been over this a hundred times, and I’m starting to feel bad for pointing it out, but the obvious choice from a statistical standpoint would lead to Savard watching the game from the press box, as he’s yet to establish positive possession numbers alongside any of the current members of the defence. Xhekaj, on the other hand, has produced above-average stats alongside Hutson and Struble, demonstrating that he still has the potential to positively contribute to the playoff push.

Seeing as the current Eastern Conference playoff situation leaves the Canadiens with very little margin for error, it’s time to put emotions aside and use the best possible players in the final 13 games of the season.

Given his recent play alongside Hutson, it would be a shame, not to mention a mistake, to remove Struble from the top pairing.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted. Via Natural Stat Trick.