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Finding A Role For Canadiens Defenceman Jayden Struble

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Montreal Canadiens Jayden Struble

The Montreal Canadiens decided to send 23-year-old defenceman Jayden Struble to the Laval Rocket, a conditioning stint that allows him to spend 14 days in the AHL.



While in Laval, Struble will still receive NHL pay, his salary will continue to impact the Canadiens’ salary cap, and the assignment does not change the fact that he counts against the 23-player roster limit.

The intent behind the assignment is unclear, though it could serve a few purposes. If the Canadiens are working on a trade to move David Savard, getting Struble back up to game speed is an important step. After all, you can’t expect a young defenceman to immediately find his rhythm after spending a significant stretch in the press box.

The AHL assignment will also allow scouts from various teams observe Struble in action while being given heavy minutes, and will bolster the Rocket’s blue line, albeit temporarily.

Finding A Job In Montreal

Much like Arber Xhekaj in previous stretches, Jayden Struble has been relegated to an auxiliary defenceman due to the perception that the good does not outweigh the bad when he’s on the ice.

And while I’ll readily admit Struble did not particularly look great during his sporadic usage by the Habs this year, we have to remember our eyes are dirty liars.

Okay, to be more accurate, there’s too much information to process while watching a hockey game, which is why our brains use shortcuts. Think of it this way, how many events take place between whistles? We’re talking about a handful of hits, dozens of passes, and many shots, not to mention other key plays, such as controlled exits and board battles, among others.

One night could include many hundreds, if not thousands of micro-events that combine to produce a single hockey game.

To compensate for the information overload, our brains delve into cognitive bias that’s called ‘availability heuristic’.

The availability heuristic occurs when we judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily we can recall similar events. If we can vividly remember instances of that event, we deem it to be more common than it actually is.

For example, it’s very easy to remember every time a bad defensive read leads to a goal against, but we probably won’t remember much if the play does not result in the puck ending up in the back of the net.

That’s why I will go out of my way to defend the players who perhaps aren’t being analyzed properly due to the perception that they’re a negative-impact player. I’m not addicted to defending the underdog, as some have suggested, I’m just duty-bound to present factual information whenever an opinion-based narrative takes over. In that sense, it’s the players who are providing me with all the ammo necessary to properly evaluate the situation.

It was certainly the case for Xhekaj in the past, and it has also surfaced while discussing Struble’s results this season.

Simply put, things aren’t as bad as many have suggested.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

To get a better idea of how Struble has played this year without relying on mental shortcuts, we can take a look at his results with Savard and Xhekaj.

It’s quite clear that Struble has produced much better underlying numbers alongside Xhekaj, compared to his time with Savard. Their share of shots (CF%) is significantly better, as is their expected goals (xGF%). Their high-danger scoring chances are slightly lower, but not enough to compensate for other discrepancies.

montreal canadiens arber xhekaj struble

But what about Xhekaj’s numbers? Well, the same phenomenon occurs. Xhekaj is much better playing with Struble than he is with Savard, and it’s not a particularly close race.

montreal canadiens arber xhekaj stats

So we’ve established the best potential third pairing would feature both Xhekaj and Struble, but perhaps it’s just a matter of those two not playing up to snuff whenever they’re paired with Savard.

If we examine the stats from the other defencemen who have spent at least 30 minutes of 5v5 ice time with Savard, it becomes quite clear that neither Xhekaj nor Struble is the issue.

Remember, you want to hit close to 50 percent in this key metrics. Anything above 50 percent is generally considered good. If a player is nearing 40 percent in these stats, they’re well below replacement level. If they’re hitting below 40 percent, they’re acting as a significant anchor in regard to any potential positive results.

Lane Hutson did manage to improve Savard’s stats, to a certain extent, but not even the super rookie could salvage the situation.

montreal canadiens savard

 

To drive the point home, we can check out Hutson’s stats with and without Savard.

While paired with Savard, Hutson only managed to control 39 percent of the shots, 40 percent of the expected goals, and 39 percent of the high-danger chances, one of the main reasons why so many outside the Montreal market criticized Hutson’s early play. They weren’t watching the games, and simply assumed he was playing poorly.

Without Savard, Hutson is sitting at a 52.4 percent of the shots (CF%), 49.6 percent of the expected goals (xGF%), and 48 percent of the high-danger chances (HDCF%), a much healthier situation that still has room for improvement, but clearly indicates the early results were a roster issue, not an individual issue from Hutson.

Essentially, the time Hutson spent with Savard yielded the worst possible results for a player who has shown he can produce solid stats alongside almost anyone else in the Montreal Canadiens lineup.

For the record, Hutson produced great numbers alongside both Struble and Xhekaj, though the ice time was limited.

Montreal Canadiens Roster Decisions Moving Forward

While I hold no illusions as to the value of having a solid veteran in the locker room, and Savard certainly fits that bill, the facts point to the Canadiens being a better team with both Struble and Xhekaj in the mix, leaving Savard as the odd-man out.

With the addition of Alexandre Carrier to the lineup, the Habs have vastly improved both their first and second pairings, and if their intent is to given Struble enough time in the AHL to find his rhythm, so he can be a viable option in the NHL, they will go a long way in shoring up their entire defensive setup.

MUST READ: How The Alexandre Carrier Trade Improved Lane Hutson’s Statistics


All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.

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Tyrone

So… we shouldn’t expect much back in a trade of Savard by the deadline this year. Other teams will be well aware of these numbers as well.

Tyrone

I agree, but the playoffs are results based, so mentoring inexperienced players isn’t that needed. I think we missed our window to cash in on him when he was the most valuable. I’m thinking we might get a 3rd for him, unless GMs get silly scrambling at the TDL.

Greg

Agreed. Hughes got greedy last year, expecting a 1st for Savard. He didn’t get it then, and if he gets even a 2nd this deadline, I would be surprised. I don’t think Savard gets dealt if we are in/close to a playoff spot, especially if the offers for him are less than a 2nd. Even the chance of a playoff berth means he needs to be replaced, and that could be much more costly than what we’d get in return.

Tyrone

I can see him getting dealt if the return is more than what it would cost us to replace him with a younger player. I guess it’ll totally depend on how “in the mix” we are. Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make. I just wish we had traded him last year (or the year before that even).

Mike Barnes

He’s still a right shot d-man, which is a commodity and his locker room presence would be important to any team.
Since the Habs are short on right shot d, I don’t see any reason to panic and trade him now and it certainly doesn’t seem Hughes is in any hurry.
Besides, there’s no guarantee trading him last year would’ve brought any great value. If there was, don’t you think Hughes would’ve?
I don’t get the panic in moving Savard. If he was playing that poorly, I believe Marty would bench him or HE would’ve been the one traded for Carrier.
This falls under the category of “blown out of proportion”

Tyrone

I’m certainly not panicking. I just didn’t want the guy anymore and give his spot to a kid. Btw, there’s no way Nashville would have wanted Savard for Carrier. We might have wanted to do that, but it takes 2 to tango and the Preds would not want to trade for an older, slower guy vs just keeping Carrier.

Tony

Very good analysis, Marc. I think Mr. Struble just needs to bide his time, like Arber did.

Greg

I think after watching the team with only 1 right shooting defenceman playing in November and early December, that would’ve been enough for most, but you want to play 5 lefties after Savard is traded (if he is.) The team was atrocious with 5 Ls and 1 R. We need at least 2 righties back there, that should be clear. Struble is a serviceable 7th d at this point, but that’s all. This makes me wonder why Pezzetta, who was a healthy scratches over 30 games in a row didn’t get the same conditioning stint. Probably because MSL has an obvious bias against players like him and Xhekaj. Instead, Pezzetta was thrown to the wolves, MSL had him on the 2nd line some shifts despite playing him under 8 minutes a game. Why the guy has not demanded a trade i cannot say, but he deserves better from the coach, and certainly the team.

Last edited 17 days ago by Greg