Habs Prospect Report: Kapanen Thriving, More Mesar Adversity

There was some very good news on the Montreal Canadiens prospect front, as Oliver Kapanen has continued his excellent play for Timra (SHL).

The 21-year-old forward scored the game-winning goal versus Frolunda on Tuesday, not to mention an assist on the game-tying goal. This pushes his season totals to 14 goals and 16 assists in 30 games, representing a very encouraging scoring pace, as he’s currently playing against professionals who tend to have a lot more experience under their belt.

#GoHabsGo Oliver Kapanen’s 14th goal and 30th point in 30 games. Kapanen has a goal and assist in the first period. #Habs pic.twitter.com/0IGO7MfFXE

— Patrik Bexell (@Zeb_Habs) February 25, 2025

That’s not to say Kapanen is void of professional experience. He actually took part in his first pro game for Kalpa (Liiga) in 2021-22, however, the SHL represents a significant uptick in quality of competition, with some arguing the overall quality of players and teams is superior to that found in the AHL.

I’d push back on that idea to a certain extent. I believe select SHL teams could beat some AHL teams, but depending on the situation in the NHL, I’d argue the talent level from individuals is usually higher in when discussing the American Hockey League.

Regardless, we do know that Kapanen is thriving in a high-quality league, and that’s exactly what you want to see from a prospect who is expected to earn a roster spot next season.

By using NHL Equivalency (NHLe), we can get a better idea of the type of offence Kapanen could produce with the Montreal Canadiens. With 30 points in 30 games, Kapanen’s NHLe is 49 points during an 82-game NHL season. We do have to remember Kapanen is currently playing on the top line with Timra, and is enjoying a heavy dose of powerplay usage, which won’t be the case in his first year with the Habs. Even with those mitigating factors in place, I’d still argue Kapanen’s production in the SHL is worthy of praise.

In fact, I’ll go as far as saying I didn’t properly evaluate Kapanen’s offensive potential, at least not initially. I was also underwhelmed with his play during his 12-game audition with the Habs this season. While everyone else seemed to be gushing over his excellent play, I genuinely did not see a player who was ready to take the biggest step in his career, and his underlying numbers were flat-out awful.

Perhaps he wasn’t ready, but I do have to admit that I did not expect him to maintain a point-per-game pace in the SHL.

It remains to be seen what type of player he will become for the Canadiens, but suffice it to say the 2024-25 SHL campaign has been an eye-opener, with Kapanen climbing over a few other prospects when it comes to NHL aspirations.

Another Difficult Chapter

While Kapanen has enjoyed a surge in his NHL potential, the same cannot be said about Filip Mesar. They’re both 21 years old, which means time is running out when it comes to the development angle.

At some point, you need to see evidence that a prospect is gearing up to improve in the near future, and that hasn’t been the case for Mesar.

He is about six months younger than Kapanen, therefore, he should be given a little longer runway.

Considering how things are going in the AHL, he’ll need it.

After starting the year with five points in his first four games, Mesar was forced to miss two months of action due to a lower-body injury. His production crumbled from that point on, as he only managed four points in the following 21 games once he returned to play.

And now, Mesar is facing yet another long period of inaction, as he has once again been sidelined with a lower-body injury. The expected recovery time is six weeks, placing his return toward mid-April. If he does recover in the expected time frame, he’ll have an opportunity to play a handful of games before the AHL season ends. Thankfully, the Laval Rocket are a dominant team, therefore there’s definitely going to be playoff hockey in the mix, giving Mesar yet another chance to find his rhythm in what has been a disappointing year.

That being said, it’s a little too early to declare this Montreal Canadiens prospect a bust. But it’s only normal to be concerned about his play.

The good news is that he’s on the first year of his entry-level contract, connoting that he has some time left to carve out a top-six roster spot in the AHL, and then proceed to prove he has what it takes to play in the NHL.

To do that, he’ll have to convince Rocket head coach Pascal Vincent that he deserves a promotion from the third line. And to do that, he’ll have to produce much more than he has this season, plain and simple.

It may sound harsh, but Mesar has not lived up to his draft position, and that’s a label that he will carry until he manages to turn things around. His current level of engagement, not to mention his lack of consistency, doesn’t past muster in the AHL, putting his long-term future with the Montreal Canadiens in doubt.

L’attaquant Filip Mešár (haut du corps) sera tenu à l’écart du jeu pour une période pouvant aller jusqu’à six semaines.

Le défenseur Noel Hoefenmayer (bas du corps) sera tenu à l’écart du jeu pour quatre à six semaines.

Forward Filip Mešár (upper-body) will be out for up to six… pic.twitter.com/GBsUhKU2DF

— Rocket de Laval (@RocketLaval) February 25, 2025