Canadiens Prospect Report: Oliver Kapanen’s Potential Impact

Much was made of Montreal Canadiens prospect Oliver Kapanen’s performance at the 2024-25 training camp.

And while the stats during his time in the NHL don’t quite correlate to the perception from most fans, the decision to loan him to Timra IK in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) has paid dividends for the Habs.

After putting together a very respectable D+3 season that saw him score 14 goals and 20 assists in 51 games, not to mention a point-per-game pace in the Liiga playoffs, the 21-year-old Finn has maintained his momentum during his D+4 season, to the tune of 12 goals and 13 assists in 26 games. Of course, not all leagues are created equal, which is why his current production taking place in the SHL is much more impressive than his time in Finland (Liiga).

He’s serving as Timra IK’s top-line centre, connoting that he’s receiving the exact type of usage you want to see from a top prospect, including a healthy number of powerplay opportunities. It doesn’t hurt that his father is the team’s general manager, but based on his production, you’d be hard-pressed to argue this is a case of classic hockey nepotism.

Regardless, the question becomes what type of player will Kapanen be if he makes it to the the NHL?

Projecting Oliver Kapanen’s Future

With 0.96 points per game, Kapanen is currently the 6th most productive Under-22 SHL player in the last 20 years. He’s scoring at the exact same pace as William Nylander did in 2014-15, however, it’s important to note that Nylander was just 18 years old at the time.

A better comparison would probably be Linus Omark, a player who ended up playing parts of three seasons in the NHL, producing 32 points in 79 games. He also spent 75 games in the AHL, where he ended up producing 76 points. Omark had 55 points in 53 games as a 21-year-old, a higher scoring pace than we’ve seen from Kapanen.

Carl Soderberg also had similar stats during his 21-year-old season in the SHL, producing 31 points in 30 games while playing for Malmö way back in 2006-07. Soderberg ended up playing almost 600 games in the NHL, scoring 297 points in the process.

With that in mind, Kapanen clearly has what it takes to make it to the NHL, and seeing as the Canadiens are hungry to add young, talented players to the mix, there’s clearly a future for him in Montreal, but we should probably temper our expectations a little.

Kapanen was a late second-round pick (64th overall in 2021), which means if he even makes it to the NHL in a permanent capacity, he’s already defied the odds.

Potential Impact With Canadiens

His scoring pace in the SHL suggests that his potential lines up with third-line production in the NHL, with a slight chance it can elevate to second-line production, but we also have to be mindful of the type of goals he’s scoring.

Just as Lane Hutson’s goals in the NCAA were never going to translate perfectly to the NHL due to the quality of goaltenders in the college ranks, I’m not convinced Kapanen would be able to maintain his goal-scoring in the NHL, at least not to the point that he’s doing it in Sweden.

Many of them are high-quality goals, either a breakaway or a great scoring chance on the powerplay, and that won’t immediately be the case in the NHL, where he will have to work his way up the ladder before being considered for powerplay usage.

However, a health number of his goals are of the ‘garbage’ variety, in that he makes his way to the net and capitalizes on a great pass or a second-chance opportunity. Personally, I don’t label those as garbage goals, because they require anticipation, a nose for the net, and a penchant for taking abuse from opposing defenders.

I’m sure Steve Shutt would agree.

Sure, it’s fun to see players beat goals with a clean shot off the rush, but most players don’t necessarily have that ability, making rebound goals their best opportunity to shine.

In that vein, if Kapanen can continue to drive to the net once he’s in the NHL, there’s a chance he will quickly end up becoming a favourite of head coach Martin St-Louis, much like Emil Heineman before him. It’s unlikely to lead to top-six usage, at least not at first, but again, that’s par for the course when we consider when Kapanen was drafted.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics via Elite Prospects. All Montreal Canadiens videos via Hab Prospect Videos.