Canadiens Analysis: Lessons From The NHL’s Final Four

While the Montreal Canadiens prepare to take the next step in their rebuild, the four remaining teams in the Stanley Cup playoffs offer some important insight as to what it takes to win in the NHL.

We’ve already established a team should have strong underlying numbers if they hope to qualify for springtime hockey. Of course, there are always exceptions to every rule, and this season the exception comes in the form of the New York Rangers.

They were not one of the top teams according to their possession metrics, and they continue to struggle to maintain strong numbers in the playoffs. They’re currently controlling less than 45 percent of the shots and 46 percent of the expected goals.

However, they’ve produced some of the best goaltending numbers, as evidenced by their 93.2 percent team save percentage. As we noted in the previous article, they also have some of the best special teams in the league. Combined with their elite goaltending, the great special teams’ play is enough to keep them well above water despite the poor underlying numbers at 5v5.

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It’s a lot more difficult to win via special teams and goaltending, as those stats tend to be less sustainable than strong 5v5 play, but it’s a good reminder that there are no ironclad rules to follow when it comes to building a winning team in the NHL.

Some guidelines should be respected, to a certain extent.

For example, some teams rely on high draft picks to build a Stanley Cup-contending team. Teams such as the Edmonton Oilers were handed two of the best players in the league via the Draft (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl), and that has certainly given them a strong foundation on which to build upon.

But we also have to remember that Draisaitl and McDavid were drafted in 2014 and 2015, respectively. This means that despite being handed a gift from the hockey gods as a recompense for their incompetence during the regular season, the Oilers are yet to reach a point in the playoffs that would suggest they have capitalized on their once-in-a-lifetime advantage.

The same can be said about the Toronto Maple Leafs. They were gifted one of the best players in the league in Auston Matthews, but they’ve achieved roughly as much playoff success as that rotting bag of kale you bought months ago thinking you were going to start eating healthier.

Some teams achieved success via the Draft.

The Chicago Blackhawks are a perfect example.

But once again, we have to remember the Hawks last won a Stanley Cup in 2015.

Chasing the Stanley Cup ‘meta’ is a fool’s quest. By the time you catch up to the teams that won years ago by following the same blueprint, a new meta will be in place.

Essentially, if you spend all your time chasing, you will have very low odds of leading the pack.

Montreal Canadiens Draft Value In Context

We’re not going to suggest drafting among the top 5 is a bad thing, but it does not guarantee playoff success.

Take a look at the Dallas Stars and the Florida Panthers’ draft record in recent years and you’ll quickly realize they built their teams via strong drafting beyond the top 5, not to mention timely trades and crucial free-agency signings.

The Panthers have only drafted in the top 10 twice in the last 10 years (Aaron Ekblad – first overall in 2014, Owen Tippett – 10th overall in 2017). For the record, Sasha Barkov was drafted second overall in 2014, just missing out on the arbitrary 10-year cut-off we put into place.

But none of those players are the ones leading the charge for the Panthers.

Carter Verhaeghe, currently second in team scoring, signed as a free agent.

Matthew Tkachuk, one of the most dominant playoff forwards and the team’s current leading scorer, was acquired in the trade that sent Jonathan Huberdeau to the Calgary Flames.

As for the Stars, they’ve had some excellent draft hauls, but you’d be hard-pressed to argue they were given an easier path to the Stanley Cup due to their draft positions.

Miro Heiskanen was drafted third overall in 2017, but key players such as Wyatt Johnston (23rd overall, 2021), Roope Hintz (49th overall, 2015), Jason Robertson (39th overall, 2017), and Logan Stankoven (47th overall, 2021) were chosen much later.

The Stars insulated their strong drafts by acquiring players such as Tyler Seguin and Evgeni Dadonov for pennies on the dollar in the NHL’s trade market, a lot like the Vegas Golden Knights did prior to winning the Stanley Cup last season.

⭐️ WHAT A PASS, WHAT A GOAL ⭐️

The @DallasStars have tied it here in the third period! #StanleyCup

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Brass Tacks

Simply put, there are no guarantees in professional sports. And there are no perfect teams to emulate.

But given that the Montreal Canadiens are set to draft in the top 5 for the third consecutive season, it stands to reason that compared to most successful NHL teams, the Habs have already received a significant boost via the NHL’s Entry Draft.

The Draft can no longer be considered the only saviour of this franchise. At least not when discussing Juraj Slafkovsky, David Reinbacher, and whoever they’ll pick fifth overall at the 2024 Draft. Those picks have to hit, but Kent Hughes and Co. cannot rest on their laurels with three top prospects in the fold.

It will take smart trades, quality mid-round drafting (voir: Lane Hutson), strong underlying numbers, some luck, and a few shrewd free-agent signings to push the Montreal Canadiens to the next level.

And most importantly, it will take time.

Perhaps more time than some are anticipating at this point in the rebuild.