Canadiens Analysis
Montreal Canadiens Maintain Surprising NHL Draft Pick Value
The 2025 NHL Entry Draft is scheduled for Friday, June 27, giving the Montreal Canadiens a little over a week to establish the best game plan for the hectic weekend.
There are relatively healthy odds the Canadiens may engage in a trade discussion that involves one or both of their first-round selections, but in the meantime we can discuss the pre-draft value of their picks.
ON TOPIC: Canadiens Draft Discussion – Moving Up, The Value Of Trading Both First-Round Picks
Montreal Canadiens Pre-Draft Pick Value
Before we get going, it’s important to remember that pre-draft value is determined via a draft-pick value chart, and as per usual, we’ll turn to one of the godfathers of hockey data analysis, Michael Schucker.
Schuckers’ draft-pick value chart essentially assigns a value to every pick based on previous drafts.
For example, the first overall pick is given a value of 917, whereas the 32nd overall pick is just 246, demonstrating the significant discrepancy in value for first-round picks. To help visualize the situation, think of it as a reverse Richter magnitude scale, with the value quickly dropping once we’re midway through the first round.
We also have to remember that the overall value is thrown out the window once a player is chosen, putting pressure on scouts to make the right selection.
With that in mind, seeing as the Montreal Canadiens possess two first-round picks, not to mention a pair of second-round picks and a trio of third-round picks, their pre-draft pick value heading into the 2025 NHL Entry Draft is the second highest since 2012, and comes close to rivalling the pre-draft pick value from 2022, when they owned the first overall pick.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Even though the numbers suggest 2025 could be one of the best drafts in recent team history, we have to acknowledge the Habs own a high quantity of draft picks, but lack the overall quality of the previous three years when they drafted 1st (Juraj Slafkovsky, 2022), 5th (David Reinbacher, 2023), and 5th overall (Ivan Demidov, 2024).
MUST READ: Canadiens 2025 NHL Draft Targets – The Smooth Skating Logan Hensler
Most general managers would rather fewer picks with higher value, but the Canadiens have reached a point where they won’t be in the running for top-five picks anymore, and if we’re being perfectly honest, the fact that they picked in the top-five in three consecutive seasons connotes the NHL’s Draft Lottery has been kind to the rebuild.
Additionally, maintaining a strong pre-draft value is very difficult for any team that qualifies for the playoffs, which should mitigate some of the concern regarding the loss of high-value picks.
Montreal Canadiens pre-draft pick value via Michael Schuckers.Â
2025 draft probably has slightly lower value for the first 5 picks as there is great volatility amongst the players available. For example I have seen Roger McQueen rated anywhere from 5 the 21st for example, so it possible 2 players Montreal rates in the top ten could be available at 16 & 17.
By forgetting to mention the 2025 Calder trophy winner, Lane Hutson, was drafted in 2022, you sort of lost a lot of credibility in this article. In a redraft, lane would go no lower than second overall.
This isn’t an article about re-drafts, though. It’s about pre-draft value. As stated in the article, once the actual draft begins, all bets are off, and pre-draft value is irrelevant. Thus, Lane Hutson’s fantastic ascension to the NHL really doesn’t have anything to do with an article discussing pre-draft value.
the difference is you have PROVEN to have no credibility….or reading skill.
I’ve used this value chart in the past, but I find it’s flawed. If you look at the combined value of picks #16 & #17 (413 + 395) it equals 808, which is equivalent to about the 3rd to 4th overall pick. There isn’t a GM anywhere that would make that trade.
It’s more than just pick value in that case. Teams don’t trade 3rd overall picks. Or any top 5 picks. It’s very rare, especially since Milbury was fired.
The pick value does hold relatively well when cross-referenced with actual draft-day trades.
For this article I kept using Schuckers’ since that’s the chart I’ve been using for the last 5 years when I update the pre-draft value piece, but there are absolutely newer models out there. I linked them relatively recently, in the first-round pick value article.
Exactly, that’s why I feel the values assigned to picks don’t quite show the real value. Those upper end of the draft picks should have much higher values to show their unlikeliness of getting traded, or more realistically demonstrate the monster haul it would take to acquire them. As it stands, the gap between picks is too narrow in my opinion.
I’ll switch to a more recent model next year, probably Dom’s, and update all the old draft values.
No worries. It wasn’t meant as an indictment, it was just something that stood out to me when I’ve used that specific chart in the past to estimate what it would take to move up to get in a position I felt we could grab certain players I liked. This year, I was using it to see if we could get into Roger McQueen territory, but it just doesn’t vibe with what I thought the reality would be.
Lol “since Millbury was fired” 🤣 it funny cause it’s so true
we passed on Bossy back in the day ( Napier ) , l got the same feel about Carbonneau , hope we can grab him
I think Carbonneau (and his killer shot) will be gonzo before 16. Might not be a bad thing due to questions about character.