Canadiens Analysis
Canadiens Draft: Value Of Trading Both First-Round Picks
With 12 picks in their draft cupboard, the Montreal Canadiens could be very busy prior to the 2025 NHL Entry Draft.
Most fans expect the team to pull off a trade, either to acquire an NHL-ready player as they did when they traded for Alex Newhook in 2023, or to move up in the first round as they did when they dealt a few picks to ensure they could draft Michael Hage 21st overall in 2024.
We’ve already discussed the potential cost to move up at the draft.
Simply put, it’s not as expensive as you’d expect.
MUST READ: Establishing The Cost Of Moving Up At The 2025 NHL Entry Draft
But what if we decided to eschew the established framework for a potential draft-day trade?
Moving Multiple Montreal Canadiens Draft Picks
A proposal by Sportlogiq and RDS analyst Billy Bertrand immediately piqued my curiosity.
He wanted to know what kind of value the Canadiens could come up with if they bundled both their first-round picks with a few mid-round picks.
Trading both firsts in a move up would be the most intriguing option to me. How far would they be able to go up with 16, 17, and maybe a few of their abundance of mid round picks if needed?
— Billy P. Bertrand (@BillypBertrand) May 23, 2025
My initial reaction erred on the side of caution. NHL teams rarely, if ever, package multiple first-round picks, especially if they’re attempting to move up in the draft. That type of deal usually centres on acquiring players who are expected to make an immediate impact in the NHL. For example, the Seattle Kraken traded Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for a pair of first-round picks (2026, 2027). I may be forgetting other examples, but it’s one of the few recent trades involving multiple first-round picks that comes to mind.
In other words, what we’re about to discuss is new territory in the NHL, mainly since we’re including two picks from the very same draft.
Moving more than one first-round pick does happen in other leagues, such as the NBA, but it should be noted that basketball teams tend to focus on five starters, whereas NHL teams need a little more depth to fill in the ranks.
Dreaming Big – Moving Multiple First-Round Picks
The Montreal Canadiens have an overabundance of prospects and draft picks, making this type of trade logical from an asset management standpoint.
If we return to the Perri pick chart to determine the value of Montreal’s picks, we get the following value for their first, second, and third-round picks.
16th overall: 23.51
17th overall: 22.18
41st overall: 7.04
49th overall: 5.19
79th overall: 2.03
81st overall: 1.92
82nd overall: 1.87
Total value: 63.74
According to Perri’s chart, the equivalent value in the first round would land the third-overall pick (62.07).
However, you’d be hard-pressed to convince an NHL team that they should move out of the top three in any draft, even if it projects to be a weak class.
If we trim the fat a little and focus on the 16th, 17th, and 41st overall picks, we get a slightly more realistic trade value of 52.23, which is the equivalent value to the fifth overall pick (50.13).
Again, I’m not sure any team would accept such a trade, particularly since it’s never really been done. In that vein, I assume the team handing over the top-five pick would want to be compensated beyond the values established in the pick chart.
For example, would the Canadiens have accepted the same type of trade ahead of the 2024 NHL Entry Draft? Probably not, chiefly since phenom Ivan Demidov was in play. Even if there was no Demidov to drool over at fifth overall, I’m not sure Kent Hughes would have entertained the proposal for more than a few seconds.
But if a team is looking to add a little more quantity to their prospect cupboard, offering a pair of first-round picks as well as an early second-round pick could build the framework of a very interesting draft-day trade.
There is the mathematics and then there are the circumstances. Teams drafting this year from 1-5 are far more in need of another core player they are likely to select in the early range than support players likely to be selected mid round this year. But maybe the new management in Long Island wants to move a Dobson or Horvat to get picks to build around Schaefer?
Of the next 5 teams, there are multiple teams willing to move their puck. Flyers who have 3 picks in the first round and 4 more in the first half of round 2 are so keen to trade their 6th overall they are sending out weekly sales flyers to the other teams lol, but I suspect they are seeking nhl players and not draft capital. Bruins at 7 are unlikely to get a cornerstone player so they might value quantity. Seattle at 8 hasn’t enjoyed home runs with Beniers or Wright so they might be a wiling partner. They have Catton coming and a strong pipeline (9 second rounders from past 3 drafts) so I doubt they’d be viable. Sabres, hard to know as Peterka is rumoured to be wanting out so they are likely in trade mode.
Pens and Rangers at 11/12 would likely be good trade partner candidates with thin pipelines and GMs under pressure.
What about teams that don’t have decent pipelines or draft capital. Leafs, Jersey, Canucks, Kings, etc . Could we get a player that fills a top 6 role or an established or promising RD? Knies, Nemec, Petterson,Byfield or Clarke? Holland might want to make a splash so that’s something to watch.
The next 5 weeks have the potential to add another key piece with the draft and start of free agency and summer trade season. Lots of options and a GM that knows what he wants.
This aint that Draft
Consensus #1 OA pick only played 17 games before his season ended.
This is after missing nearly 30 games the season before.
Similar to 2012 where Galchenyuk went 3rd OA despites missing more games in his last 2 seasons then he actually played and look at how that worked out.
If and i mean IF Schafer transitions at the NHL level to his Full Projected Potential.
Then you’re looking at best at a Markov at worst a Dante Fabro.
The rest of the top 5 werent difference makers in the playoffs and all crapped out early except Hagens who’s production wasnt overly impressive.(Jay Obrien levels which got him to the same Frozen Four but no NHL contract despite being drafted in the 1st round)
Only NSH in the top 5 gambles on Schafer
They other 4 teams ahead of them have Healthier more skilled young LD
-Matrone will go to NYI, he’s what they need today and could play as soon as next year.
-Misa needs another year but that fits with SJS timeline but Hagens might be that close too.
-Hagens i say CHI snaps up as he’s in a good system with a Coach they’re been linked to.
-Mcqueen i think Utah gambles on over Schafer as he’s missed as at least he battled back from his injury to try and join in on the playoff run. Turns out it was a bad idea and he was limited severely but i like those instincts.Besides Utah is looking for a big Wiger who can score.
I think for this reason NYI will entertain trading down.
The difference between a top 5 prospect rest of the top 20
At least 1/3rd of the top 20 missed a lot of time due to injury or
they hurt their odds due to a weak playoff outing
For PIT trading their #11,#12 and 59th OA picks or NSH with 5th, 26th and 55th OA picks
It would give NYI a shot at getting more depth. It gives PIT and NSH what they need to draft Schafer or Matrone.More so the NSH trade makes sense as a Matrone would change things for NSH as he fits a big hole now that Marchessaults asked for a Fresh Start Elsewhere
In the over 20 mock drafts I have seen Schaffer is #1 in all of them. Pretty bold of you to think he drops to #4. I haven’t seen a lot of him, what is it you don’t like other then the injuries?
Sometimes it seems to me that Hughes and Gorton are always trying (maybe a little to hard) to be the “smartest guys in the room”. Recall the smug look on Hughes’ face when he went off the board at the 2022 Draft and drafted Slafkovsky first overall, and then obtained the Islanders’ 13th overall for Romanov, only to flip it to Chicago for Dach. He thought he had pulled it over on all the other GMs — got the best player at first (still to be determined) and solved his 2nd line centre position (still to be determined, but probably not). And if he had done nothing, we would have Romanov on defence and Nazar up front, which would not be that bad.
Maybe instead of trying to outsmart everyone, Hughes and Gorton should concentrate on doing their homework and drafting well, developing their players well (as they are doing, probably for the first time in decades, in Laval), and engage proper, knowledgeable and experienced coaches to lead and put the players in the best position to succeed. Maybe instead of using analytics and numbers to identify draft picks, the team should instead go back to the old fashioned way of assessing talent, will and desire. At least until the day we have automatons playing the game.
How would we have Romanov and Nazar?
Well we already had Romanov. Not sure how,he gets both?
How was selectiong Slafkovsky going off the board? Wright was expected to go first, and now virtually everyone agrees that would have been a mistake. After Wright, the consensus was either Slafkovsky or Cooley. The biggest mistake made by all teams was letting the best player drop to #62.
How would we have had Nazar drafted 13th overall without trading Romanov for that pick? Are you suggesting that we should have selected Nazar first overall instead of Slafkovsky? That would have been going off the board.
Questioning the drafting of Hughes seems a little ridiculous 3yrs in, especially considering how well the first draft is looking. I am super pumped about the Habs last 3 drafts. Mesar might be a complete miss but beyond that it looks like they picked some gems.
And you assume we would have drafted Nazar.
Hughes’ rationale for trading picks for Dach and Newhook were to move forward the rebuild. When you see prospects who are 19-21 coming along in dev you can say wait until they hit 23 at least before contributing to the NHL team. Maybe even 25. The idea is Hughes wanted to build a competitive team sooner, with players to complement Suzy and gang before they get much older. He knew it would take 5-6 years to become consistent playoff contenders, so he thought why not push that up to 3-4?
Now, Slaf and Demidov were high enough picks, showing that talent/ability, they have been able to join the team young. Slaf will be entering his 4th season and he’s just recently understood what he needs to do to be a consistent impact player. Demidov will be next. He may play 2 seasons before we see his true value explode.
On the D side, Guhle showed his value this year. Hutson is a revelation, true, and Reinbacher? Mailloux? We expect a couple of years before they round into NHL form.
Missing Dach this year showed what it would have been like had the Habs kept their draft pick instead, with that player toiling in Laval this past season. They made the playoffs anyway. I’m not worried about Dach if he’s able to play healthy all season. But we’re seeing it does take time for this young team to climb. And with Savard retired, a vet or two also gone, the young team may take a step back before the tide rises for them together. It’s a long process.
At least we know Hughes has his own ideas and somehow finds a path no pundits predict. This keeps it spicy!
So you are telling me we can’t find better players than the players we lost in Laval or trade or free agency? We are not losing any superstars. We should be pushing for a top 3 spot next season. This team was different once we moved Barron and Carrier and Laine entered the lineup.
Fun read, but zero chance of happening. I’ve been a proponent of packaging tons of picks each year to jump up and grab players at the very top of the draft, only to be disappointed that it never happens. It seems so simple. Throw a mountain of picks at teams in the top of the draft in order to get elite players. The lower picks are very unlikely to yield any game changers anyway. Then, sign bottom 6 players as free agents. They’re a proven commodity already, so it’s like hitting 100% of the time on your late round picks that you would normally be throwing darts at a board in the hopes that maybe one or two might possibly play for you some day. The draft was made so teams could all have a chance at getting their hands on the best players, rather than a few teams hoarding them all like in the Original Six days. We would just be using the draft in a different manner. Instead of waiting our turn every round and getting 1 guy with decreasing probability of ever playing for us, throw tons at the teams with the best picks, build an elite top six of skill, and then use our money to buy the rest of the supporting cast in the bottom six. The best part is, we’re not starting from scratch. We already have at least 4 great pieces in Suzuki, Caufield, Demidov and Slafkovsky. If Dach could stay healthy, we might even have 5 pieces. Worst case, we need 2 more elite pieces for our top 6. Our pipeline is already bursting and we are going to be letting guys walk for nothing because we can’t sign them all already. Why not throw everything and the kitchen sink pick-wise to jump up and grab Misa, Desnoyers or McQueen and slot in another blue chip kid? Do it again next year and we’re set for the next decade plus. I’ve wanted to do a version of this when franchise players have been available in the past, but maybe we’re at a point where we can do something similar for top end (but not necessarily franchise) prospects. Yes, I know there’s never a guarantee the top guys are going to be as good as expected (Daigle, Yakupov, etc.) but I have confidence in our modern scouting systems and analytics departments that it’s far less likely we pick a flop. I remember when we tried to do this to get Mario Lemieux at the ‘84 draft. It didn’t work, but can you imagine if it had? Can you imagine #66 in bleu, blanc et rouge? OMG. Obviously, there aren’t any Lemieux’s available, but the strategy could work for a top end kid from this draft. How fun would that be?
On top of draft picks, Hughes and Gorton also have a few NHL-ready, or almost ready, prospects. There are a few who will be waivers-eligible next season, but who are unlikely to earn a roster spot with the Canadiens: Farrell, Primeau, Trudeau among others. Farrell has 8 points in 9 AHL playoff games, including 3 goals, thus far. This is representative of his pace for 2nd-half of the season. While Primeau failed to keep the backup role in Montreal’s pressure cooker, his AHL stats (1.96 GAA, 0.927 SV% in 26 regular season games; and 2.03 GAA and 0.924 SV% in 5 playoff games) are outstanding. These two American prospects will certainly be claimed on waivers if they are not traded in the off-season.
This scenario is likely to repeat itself next year; so there are a few more who could be dangled as trade bait. As the Canadiens’ roster is getting filled with good young players, it becomes increasingly difficult to make the roster.
Defensemen: if we consider the top-4 with Matheson, Carrier, Guhle and Hutson, top prospects such as Engstrom, Mailloux and Reinbacher will be competing with Struble and Xhekaj for 3rd-pair minutes. Matheson is signed for one more year, and Carrier, two.
Forwards: if we consider a top-9 with Caufield, Suzuki, Slafkovsky; Laine, Dach, Demidov; Gallagher, Newhook, Anderson; we have Evans and Heineman on the 4th-line. Three top prospects, Beck, Kapanen and Roy, should be competing for a roster spot this season, while Hage will come one season later. Laine is signed for one more season, Gallager and Anderson, two each. By then, some prospects like Davidson, Thorpe, Tuch, F. Xhekaj might be NHL-ready and better suited for bottom-6 duties than the like of Mesar, Kidney and possibly some of the previously mentioned prospects.
As if this does not constitute enough of a hurdle for prospects fighting to earn a roster spot with the Canadiens, Hughes and Gorton could acquire NHL-proven players to improve the team in the off-season.
There are teams with very little in their prospect pipeline. Some prospects lower in the CH depth chart may become top prospects in one of those teams’ depth chart.While many would frown upon giving significant value to former late draft picks, I’m sure that a few teams would gladly take one of these players instead of a 2nd-round pick as there’s far less uncertainty about their development.
Flaw with that is all teams have different draft boards. Habs could have a player they ranked in their top 10 slide to 16. They may be giving up the 8th and 12th pick on their board for #5 overall. More likely they just package #16 and #41 to move up a few spots for someone they really like.
I agree, this is the most probable option. #16 and #41 to Pitts for #11 makes a lot of sense to me as Pitts would get back their 2nd round pick. Habs could then pick McQueen if lucky or Bear
Habs simply don’t have the room to use all the 2025 picks. There are limits to roster size. Either they bundle some in a trade or make an offer of picks for someone who is an RFA.
Given our rebuild is ongoing would not want to give up both first round picks.