Canadiens Analysis
Top 5 Lessons The Canadiens Have Learned From The Playoffs
There will certainly be some disappointed fans that will focus on the fact that the Montreal Canadiens were bounced from the playoffs by the Washington Capitals. But now that the dust has started to settle, we can focus on the big picture, which reveals a few important truths about the lineup.
The First Line Results
Heading into the first-round series versus the Capitals it was clear that the Canadiens’ top line would be shadowed by one of the best shutdown lines in the NHL.
And yet, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky had a fantastic stretch when we evaluate their underlying numbers.
Simply put, they controlled the play on most shifts. At 5v5, they scored three goals and allowed three goals, which means there’s some room for improvement, but the fact that they controlled more than 60 percent of the shots and expected goals while facing a dominant shutdown line is the epitome of encouraging.
On repeat: Big goals. Big moments. It’s what Nick Suzuki does.
It’s a tie game thanks to the captain. #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/QlXYFlCk4d
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) April 22, 2025
The Canadiens Need More Centres
With all due respect to Jake Evans and Alex Newhook, the lack of depth down the middle of the ice is impossible to ignore. It’s especially concerning when we remember that the player who was designed to take over second-line centre duties, Kirby Dach, is consistently injured.
There’s also some evidence to suggest that Dach would be best suited for the wing, a role that would allow him to eschew some of his defensive responsibilities. He also struggles when it comes to winning faceoffs, much like Newhook, leaving head coach Martin St-Louis with very limited options in the top six.
Now that Ivan Demidov has arrived, the Canadiens would be well served by starting their search for a second-line centre as soon as possible.
ON TOPIC: Top UFA Centres That Should Be Available To The Canadiens In Free Agency
We do have to give Evans a little credit, as his presence alongside Demidov did improve the underlying numbers, but given his historical production rate, he’s not a legitimate option for a long-term solution to the second-line centre problem.
On that note, the Canadiens also need to improve their defensive depth, but they have a fair amount of players in the AHL that could help improve the situation, whereas they’ll likely have to solve their centre issue externally.
The Playoffs Are Greasy
The Capitals weren’t necessarily the most physical team during the regular season, however, their approach to the first-round series revealed a club that can increase their physical play at the drop of a hat.
You may believe the Capitals crossed the line on several occasions, including a few blatant cross-checks that went uncalled, and there’s evidence to suggest that was the case, but such is life in the playoffs.
Greasy. pic.twitter.com/gWx0VOW7Dc
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) May 1, 2025
It was a reality check to a certain extent, a good reminder that there’s a completely new set of unwritten rules that come into place once the playoffs begin. It’s a frustrating situation, both for fans and players, and yet, every team that ends up winning the Stanley Cup has to navigate the inconsistency that reigns supreme in springtime hockey.
Every time a series ends, fans engage in a fruitless debate about which team ended up having an advantage thanks to the referees, with both respective fan bases indicating they got the short end of the stick.
There’s no avoiding it, and to make matters more frustrating, any manner of complaint from players or a coach will only lead to more whistles in the near future.
There’s some inspiration to be taken from one of the most fearless animals in North America, the Canada Goose.
They don’t back down from anyone, and they’re willing to match any sort of aggression with a triple dose of belligerence, regardless of the consequence.
Match the grease, fight like Canada Geese.
Samuel Montembeault Deserves More Credit
Every goaltender will deal with their fair share of criticism, especially in Montreal, and yet, there’s no doubt Samuel Montembeault is still among the most valuable players in the lineup.
During the regular season, he finished as a top-five goalie in the league in goals saved above average (24.6, all situations), a situation that he extended into the playoffs with a considerable improvement in his save percentage, which rose from .902 to .908.
Jacob Fowler and Jakub Dobes represent the future, but Montembeault represents the present.
The moment he was injured, the Canadiens lost their best chance of winning the series versus the Capitals.
It’s also worth remembering that without excellent play this season, the Canadiens would have assuredly missed the playoffs, and thus been robbed of a fantastic opportunity to add important experience to their incredibly young lineup.
Top goalies over their last 20 games https://t.co/RtBkDPbkvW pic.twitter.com/l97sN9mMBP
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) March 18, 2025
The Best Is Yet To Come
A quick look at the average age of the team’s first powerplay unit (22) reveals a young squad brimming with talent. Ivan Demidov (19), Juraj Slafkovsky (21), Lane Hutson (21), Cole Caufield (24), and Nick Suzuki (25) scored on more than 50 percent every powerplay in the final games of the series.
Demidov did struggle at times at 5v5, and that was to be expected, but the moment he took over from Patrik Laine on the top powerplay unit, the Habs enjoyed a significantly more puck movement than they had in the past. Consequently, Logan Thompson was forced to reset more often, which led to a vulnerable goaltender.
Ivan Demidov sets up Juraj Slafkovsky for a crucial goal to tie the game. #GoHabsGo
Lane Hutson also had an assist. pic.twitter.com/0mcbetrLAZ
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) April 28, 2025
Now that Hutson has a full year of professional hockey under his belt, we also have to allow for the possibility he’s somehow going to improve upon his excellent production. This, in turn, should help every other young player elevate their game, because Hutson acts as the rising tide that lifts all boats.
Add a healthy number of draft picks in the upcoming draft, as well as a stable of good prospects currently playing for the team’s AHL affiliate, the Laval Rocket, and you have most of the ingredients necessary to ensure success.
Of course, it’s much easier said than done, and general manager Kent Hughes still has a lot of work to do if he’s to build a roster that can match the current Stanley Cup contenders. There’s even a chance the Canadiens may miss the playoffs next year, especially if a few Eastern Conference teams finally wake up from their decade-long slumbers.
But one thing can be certain, the Canadiens are on the right track just a few years into their rebuild, connoting that they’re ahead of schedule as well, a rarity in the modern professional sports landscape.
WOW!
End-to-end beauty!!
It’s Lane Hutson’s world, we’re just living in it.
2-1 #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/kdPirGJei2
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) April 6, 2025
The success we earned this season can be connected to the growth of our youth, but the contributions of our vets are what enabled us to hang in long enough to squeak into the playoffs. In the past our PK would kill our chances of winning games. But this year, thanks to career years (not necessarily offensively) from Evans and Armia, along with Dvorak’s best season in a Habs uniform, and Anderson’s and Gallagher’s resurgences, we had a top end PK team that kept us in games, and numerous clutch goals from all these guys. That was a perfect storm that is very unlikely to happen again next year. Our premier PK duo of Evans and Armia in all likelihood won’t exist as Armia departs via free agency. Dvorak will most certainly be gone too. Anderson and Gallagher will be hard pressed to maintain their success of this season. The influx of several rookies next season (and the inevitable errors they commit) along with the departure of key veteran contributors could be too much to overcome from the growth of our young core and a full season of Demidov. Our best hope is that we can outscore many of our deficiencies to mask the flaws in our game. Factor in the unlikelihood that several teams in the Eastern Conference are not likely to crater at the exact moment we needed to back into the playoffs, and another trip to fight for the Cup is anything but assured. Having said that, this season was a great gift overall, and watching the kiddies develop to the potential we had dreamed about was awesome. I’m full of hope for next year, but will it be enough?
Actually agree on most of your points. Improvement on this season is NOT guaranteed.
And even the size thing now comes into play. Well, maybe not just size, but toughness. That’s why the Habs lost this series…they got out muscled when it mattered. Seemed like 80-90% of the time there was significant “contact”, it was the Habs player falling to the ice. But, alas, its been this way for years now…
Also, they just can’t get enough shots on net. And they don’t get enough high chance scoring…and when they do, they don’t “bury” them as often as they should. This is lack of elite talent…or significant talent…whatever you want to call it.
They NEED 1. A true 2nd line center. 2. Another solid top-4 Right Dman. 3. Another 3rd line center, if Dvorak is not resigned therein. Preferably, ALL are reasonably tough guys who can make plays or just flat out dominate defensively.
I don’t think any other significant moves are needed at this point. Lets see what we got in Demi, Slaf, Roy, Hein, Kapo, ReinB and Mailloux (and maybe Beck?). But not Dach…he’s done.
“Also, they just can’t get enough shots on net. And they don’t get enough high chance scoring”… That’s another reason size is needed. You need the beef and the snarl to get to the dirty areas. Glad you are finally understanding the reason why I feel size is such an important factor in playoff success. What happened to us in round 1 was exactly my concern from day 1 of the rebuild. Skill is the most important factor in success, but size and snarl are what allow that skill to do their thing. Just look at the Leafs. Tremendous skill players, but haven’t done anything. Although, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go all the way this year because they finally have backed up that skill with playoff hardened players and a top end goalie. Having said that, I’m praying they blow the 3-0 series lead against Ottawa and have a choke of epic proportions (even though it’ll benefit probably our biggest rival for the next 10 years or so, assuming Tkachuk doesn’t bail for the States at some point). We actually have a fair number of big boys, but the problem is our most important pieces are little. Our D revolves around Hutson, and our best scorer is Caufield. We couldn’t make it through 1 round at this point of the rebuild (which is totally expected), but once we’re supposed to grind our way through FOUR rounds of the war, will our most important players be able to survive the battle? We saw Hutson and Caufield both take some big hits in the past 5 games. All it takes is one of those to potentially end our playoff dreams. Hugo have done a phenomenal job so far, and probably through the most difficult part too. The next stage will be surrounding our skill players with elite grinding 3rd and 4th liners, and hopefully adding 1 or 2 to the top 6 too. Same goes for our D core.
Height wise we may appear small, but weight wise we are middle of the pack… I never understood when people look at height and not weight,, core strength and playing with some grit is the more important factor to me than height 😉
I thought the Caps shutdown game was a more consistent difference maker than their physicality, but their physicality just kept turning up at key moments and constantly changed the momentum, so yes it was an issue too – but I thought we matched the physicality pretty good throughout – they just had the bigger momentum changing big ones (especially in game 4) and even their top 6 does a lot of hitting where as it was our bottom 6 trying to match it…
I think a lot of next year is gonna depend on who we add as our new 2C and whether we need to add a top 4 RHD or whether we give Reinbacher or Mailloux a shot to emerge… for me, those are the biggest questions that need addressed in the off season… I do expect the kids to keep improving, but we need the right balance and support for them if we want to take the next step…
I’d say more like the Habs need a 2C with the health of Dach in the balance . We do have some fine looking young pivots already in the system , Kapanen , Beck , Xhekaj and Hage all between 19-21 . I like the chances of at least some of them making it in the bottom 6 over the next 2 years .
A few comments.
The youth need to continue to improve.
Galley, Anderson, Carrier and Matheson need to keep everyone honest.
They need a 2C – and that is not Dach or Newhook. A trade is an option but who is important.
Do not discount Beck as a legit C who can play in top 6. He has the speed, more offence then given credit for, brains and desire to play with a Demidov. And Dach on a wing might be a good mix with these 2. Defence from Beck, physicality from Dach and a chance for Demidov to learn. Internally this looks plausible. Assume one of Beck or Kapenen plays with Canadiens at C in 2025/ 2026.
Not sure where Roy or Farrell can fit (need some grind and size on 3rd & 4th line) so AHL candidates look like Xhekaj, Davidson and or Tuch.