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Canadiens Analysis

Top 3 Encouraging Canadiens Facts Overshadowed By Big Win

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2 weeks ago

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montreal canadiens juraj slafkovsky

While most of the attention following Friday’s exciting game was given to the fight between Montreal Canadiens forward Josh Anderson and Washington Capitals veteran Tom Wilson, there were several positive factors worth mentioning when discussing the ever-changing details of the first-round series.

Both Anderson and Wilson were fined $5,000 for their fight, which ended up spilling into the Capitals bench once Wilson insisted on finding his Canadiens counterpart in a scrum prior to the second intermission.

MUST READ: Montreal Canadiens Playoffs – Big Win Versus Capitals Features Fights, Goals, And Injuries

All things considered, it was a questionable decision by Wilson, as the Habs essentially took over the game following the intense scuffle, however, pinning the win solely on the fight would be selling Anderson, and the Canadiens, short.

First Line Dominance

One of the biggest concerns heading into the first-round series was the presence of an elite shutdown line in Washington.

Throughout the regular season, the Connor McMichael, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Tom Wilson combination was great, mitigating the damage made by some of the top players in the league all year long.

And given that Montreal’s top six is usually closer to a top three, logic dictated that the series would be rather difficult for Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Cole Caufield.

After all, it’s relatively easy to prepare a game plan against a team that mostly relies on just one line.

And yet, a quick look at the numbers confirms that Suzuki and Co. have produced the best results of any regularly-used line in the first three games of the series.

They’ve scored three goals at 5v5, while only allowing their opponents to respond in kind once.

On top of controlling the goals, which takes on much more importance in the playoffs compared to the regular season, the line has also controlled the flow of the game on most shifts.

When Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovsky are on the ice (5v5), the Canadiens have controlled 69 percent of the shots, 68 percent of the high-danger chances, and 67 percent of the expected goals.

In other words, Montreal’s first line hasn’t just done a decent job in a difficult situation, they’re thriving while defying the odds.

Then again, that is Suzuki’s usual modus operandi.

Suzuki is the clear-cut leader, but we should avoid giving him all the credit for the top line’s emergence as a dominant combination in the playoffs. Both Slafkovsky and Caufield are currently playing some of the best hockey of their respective careers. Game 3 gave us all the evidence necessary to make that claim.

Slafkovsky, in particular, was fantastic.

High-Quality Statistics

Montreal has controlled the shots throughout the series, but they’ve struggled when it comes to maintaining their fair share of high-danger chances.

When it comes down to it, not all shots are created equal.

That’s why Friday’s 62% (13-8) control of the quality scoring chances at 5v5 was so impressive. It wasn’t just a reversal of fortunes versus the Capitals, it was a complete turnaround compared to their usual results against any opponent. Montreal has taken significant steps forward this season, but high-danger chances remain an issue.

Anything above 50 percent is healthy, anything in the 60 percent range is worthy of a healthy dose of praise.

For what it’s worth, the Habs only controlled 33 percent of the quality chances in Game 1 (7-14), and 40 percent of the best chances in Game 2 (8-12).

The fact that the Canadiens also controlled the physical play while dominating the underlying statistics is the most encouraging aspect of Game 3.

And it wasn’t just a matter of the first line doing all the heavy lifting, as the newly formed second line with Alex Newhook, Ivan Demidov, and Jake Evans also controlled the play, as did Anderson, Brendan Gallagher, and Christian Dvorak on the third line.

Bonus Factor: Youth At Work

I’d love to take credit for noticing one of the most interesting aspects of Friday night’s big win, but I brazenly stole it from Rob Suzuki.

Mr. Suzuki was quick to point out the average age of the first powerplay unit was just 22 years old, making his 25-year-old son the elder statesman.

It should be noted Demidov took Patrik Laine’s place, which helped lower the average age, but any way you cut it, the Montreal Canadiens are clearly a team on the rise.

It’s a cliché, but it’s also true. The best is yet to come for Demidov (19), Hutson (21), Slafkovsky (21), Caufield (24), and of course, Suzuki (25).

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.

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Habblab

Slafkovsky really stood out and the analytics confirm it. May have been the best of his career.

4
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Louis kirschner

If Heineman can play centre he can replace Newhook.

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Dana

Caufield had 11 shots on goal, think I read that is a franchise playoff record. He scored one and set up another. Before Laine took his spot on the left flank of the pp, Caufied had 5 pp goals in only 2 months. He only had 2 more the last 5 months of the season. I think he’d have scored 45 if he had of been the trigger on the pp all year. He played a heck of a game last night. Totally engaged and committed, I thought he was at his best.

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Greg

I said this in December, and it’s as true now as it was then. If the Canadiens had an actual 2C, they would be a dangerous team. Laine was, in my opinion, dragging that line into mediocrity with his lazy play and unwillingness to do the kind of things it takes to win. Forechecking. Fighting through traffic to get to the net. Back checking. He has been all but useless except when standing still in the left circle on the PP.
Personally, I thought it was hilarious that they healthy scratched him but called it an “upper body injury.”
Hilarious because it’s true–he has no heart, the tin man.
The team really pulled together and played the best game I’ve seen from them in a long time. No waiting until the 3rd to turn it on while down by a goal or two for a change.
It also was very clear that the Capitals weren’t able to execute because the crowd was so loud at times, they had no way to hear each other out there. Habs handled it like champs–the every game volume in Montréal is as loud as many other teams’ playoff crowd volume, and the fans were going hard as the team they were cheering on.
I wasn’t too high on our chances this series, but if we can string together more games like last night, we can win this series.
Go Habs Go!
Golf Leafs Golf!

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Dave

Agreed. Except for some of the laine criticism. Laine didn’t have a proper centre all year. If he has no more injuries, he will score 40-50 goals next season. Perhaps even without a proper centre. But we need that centre with him for it to work in next years playoffs. If we could only get Crosby in between Demidov and Laine. 🔥🔥🔥

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