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Canadiens – Capitals Series Preview: Top-5 X-Factors, Storylines

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Montreal Canadiens ivan demidov via nhn

With the series set to start on Monday, April 21, take a look at some of the X-Factors heading into the first-round matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and the Washington Capitals.

While the Capitals hold an advantage on paper, the game is played on the ice, and there are a few situations that could end up benefiting the Canadiens if they play their cards right.

X-Factor No.1: Pierre Luc-Dubois Versus Nick Suzuki

Things can change rather quickly in the NHL. If you haven’t been paying attention, you may not know that Pierre-Luc Dubois has become a premier shutdown centre in the NHL.

At the risk of oversimplifying things, the most important factor heading into the series will be whether Dubois can effectively shut down Nick Suzuki and friends.

This will be the most influential matchup in the series because if the Capitals do manage to slow down Suzuki’s line, offence will be very difficult to come by for Montreal. The Capitals, on the other hand, can depend on the Dubois line to play a shutdown role, while the Ovechkin line terrorizes opposing defenders.

The first two times the Canadiens and Capitals met, Dubois did a fairly good job limiting the damage from the top line, however, the line included Alex Newhook and Emil Heineman, rather than the current setup, which features Juraj Slafkovsky.

The only time Dubois faced the team’s actual s top line, Montreal held a significant edge. The Suzuki line controlled upward of 55 percent of the shots on January 10, regardless of who was covering them, while their expected goal share was 75 percent with Dubois on the ice, and 76 percent without.

Cole Caufield scored that night, as did Suzuki, however, Suzuki’s game-winning goal came in overtime, and there’s not much value to discussing results at 3v3 when projecting playoff performances.

X-Factor No.2: Defending The Rush

I had a chance to watch the Capitals face the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday night, and while it was painfully clear Washington was simply playing to avoid injuries, two things quickly came to mind.

The first is that we’re incredibly lucky to have been treated to the Crosby – Ovechkin show for the last two decades. It’s now 2025, but for a few brief moments, it felt a little like 2005, speaking to the impressive level of dominance they’ve maintained during their 20 years in the league.

The second is that the Capitals will be very difficult to stop off the rush.

There was one play in particular that stood out, even if it has now been removed from the annals of history. It featured Dylan Strome quickly making his way through the neutral zone before firing a rocket off the rush. The goal, which was set to be his 30th of the season, was reviewed and denied due to Ovechkin being offside, but it was a good reminder that the Habs will have to do a much better job holding the zone, rather than collapsing and giving the Capitals plenty of real estate in the defensive zone.

Statistically speaking, this may end up being Montreal’s Achilles heel.

No other team scores more often off the rush than the Capitals, and very few teams allow more shots off the rush than the Habs.

X-Factor No.3: Goaltending

This is where the Montreal Canadiens have their greatest advantage.

Well, sort of.

It’s complicated.

Samuel Montembeault has been excellent this season, ranking among the best goalies in the league when it comes to goals saved above average. You’ll note former Hab Jake Allen is also on the list, which isn’t particularly relevant to this article, but it’s always fun to see former players thrive.

With that in mind, you’ll also note a certain Capitals goaltender on the list, and that’s where the waters muddy a little.


Logan Thompson is exceptional. I’d argue he should have been Canada’s starter at the 4 Nations Faceoff, but that’s a discussion for another day.

If we’re comparing Montembeault to Thompson, the Capitals netminder holds an edge in most departments, except for health.

As it stands, Thompson is listed as day-to-day, currently dealing with an upper-body injury according to the club. The 28 year-old netminder has not played since April 2, when he allowed three goals on 10 shots versus the Carolina Hurricanes before being relieved by Charlie Lindgren. A Sean Walker shot ended up hitting Thompson’s mask near the temple, causing it to fall to the ground when a strap let go.

Of course, we never want any player to deal with injuries, but if Thompson is not ready to go for Game One on Monday, the Habs will have no choice but to take advantage of the goaltending mismatch that would then take place.

The Canadiens have one of the best team save percentages in April, to the tune of 93.4 percent. The Capitals, on the other hand, rank 29th, with a lowly 85.6 save percentage in Thompson’s absence.

X-Factor No.4: Youth Vs. Experience

The Canadiens happen to have the youngest lineup to ever qualify for the playoffs, whereas the Capitals are at the other end of the age spectrum.

While there’s no doubt youthful exuberance can lead to interesting results, especially when you’re discussing a team with nothing to lose, such as the Canadiens, there’s certainly a lot of value to having players in the locker room that have gone down the playoff road before.

A healthy mix of both is ideal, but there’s no doubt this first-round series will feature two teams with a significant discrepancy in playoff experience. Brendan Gallagher is Montreal’s oldest forward at 32 years old, with 71 games worth of playoff experience in the bank. Ovechkin has played in over 150 playoff games, and he’s far from the only player in the lineup to be overflowing experience.

If we’re being realistic, Ovechkin won’t remain in the NHL forever, which means the Capitals should be extra motivated to add another hard-earned Stanley Cup to his thrice-enlarged trophy cabinet.

Another way of looking at the experience issue would be to note John Carlson has more playoff experience than the entire Montreal Canadiens blue line combined.

In that vein, we can also suggest that despite a lack of experience, few defencemen in the NHL can match the impact of rookie Lane Hutson.

X-Factor No.5 – Physical Play And Injuries

As we previously discussed, the Thompson injury recovery will play a major role in deciding this series, but he’s not the only important player that is on the mend. For the record, Thompson has resumed skating, but he’s still considered as day-to-day by the club.

Aliaksei Protas, one of Ovechkin’s usual linemates, is dealing with a deep laceration on his foot. He has not resumed skating yet, making his presence in the lineup on Monday doubtful.

Beyond the current injuries, we should expect the Habs to lead the charge when it comes to physical play, and as we all know, the playoffs are when attrition becomes a crucial factor.

The Habs are a top-10 hitting team in the league, whereas the Capitals are ranked 23rd. This means the Montreal Canadiens tend to throw roughly five more hits per game.

That being said, it’s important to note teams that control the puck have fewer opportunities to hit in the first place.

Bonus X-Factor: Ivan Demidov

Beating the Capitals with one legitimate top-six line is a big ask, but if rookie Ivan Demidov can stabilize the second line and give Montreal Canadiens head coach Martin St-Louis a few more options, it will make life much more difficult for the Capitals coaching staff.

Rather than coming up with a simple game plan that involves shadowing Suzuki and Co, the Capitals would have to spread their defensive prowess a little more evenly in their usage.

The numbers suggest Demidov can improve the second line to the point that it would be treading water at 5v5, but we’re dealing with a very small sample size, and a very young player.

Demidov emerging as a top talent in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs would certainly suit the theme of the season. The Habs are playing with house money, on a season-long adventure that is part Fear And Loathing, part Hangover, and 100 percent entertaining.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick and Money Puck.

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gig young

Montreal plays better against good teams instead of the now bottom feeders, so I expect them to competitive. Also no one seems to mention that the NHL added an assist on Montreal’s empty net goal by Evans to Suzuki, so he now has 90 points for the season.

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Dave

Espn and nhl.com doesn’t show 90 points.

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Tony

The Caps are an elite group of wily veterans who can beat you with multiple weapons. In my opinion the biggest factors for Montreal will be: Thompson’s health, Hutson avoiding a big hit, and Demidov’s potential breakout. On paper this series looks like a blowout for the Caps. But then again it also looked that way 11 years ago. Allons les boys!

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Tyrone

Totally agree on everything, especially the defending the rush part. We back in right up to Monty’s face half the time. We end up screening our goalies and have pucks deflect off us into the net probably more than any other team. Guhle has at least 3 goals in off him alone since returning from his quad injury. We have to stand up at the blue line and offer more resistance. To me, that starts with putting Xhekaj back in the lineup. The “win one for Savvy” narrative is a nice story, but the reality is he’s been our worst Dman all year. He knows it too, which is why he’s retiring at “only” 34. I think the team should say he’s “injured” after the first game and then put him on the bench as an inspirational coach like they did with Denis Savard in 1993. We won our last Cup with an inspirational player/coach named Savard on the bench. Why not try it again?

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Gwen

I agree Savard has struggle mightily this year. But, at least according to The Athletic’s stats cards, Xhekaj has been even worse. Statistically, he’s been in the same range as Hamonic and Pierre-Olivier Joseph, among the wost Ds in the East. He skates better, and he has the odd fight (which rarely gives much of an edge), and no one has as many hits as him among our Ds by far, but he is even more prone to errors, he spends way too much time in the box + can’t play PK and he blocks way less shots.

Best Marty can do is to play our top-4 as much as possible without burning them through.

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Captain Kirk

If Demidov and Laine can bring added scoring, it will be interesting. Skate hard, play the body and forecheck all the time. WC are an old team, keep the skating and forechecking on. The longer it goes, the more it favours the Habs.

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