Canadiens – Capitals Series Preview: Schedule, Key Stats, History

It took until the final game of the regular season, but the Montreal Canadiens finally punched their ticket to the 2025 NHL Playoffs, with the Washington Capitals serving as their first-round opponent.

Montreal Canadiens Vs. Washington Capitals Series Preview

There’s a 20 point discrepancy in the NHL standings between the two teams, as the Capitals finished the season as the top team in the Eastern Conference (111 pts), while the Habs barely sneaked into the playoffs as the second Wild Card team (91 pts).

The two teams have only faced each other once in the playoffs, an exciting series in 2011 that resulted with the eight-seed Canadiens eliminated the top seed Capitals in seven games. Of course, that was a long time ago, and other than Alexandre Ovechkin, none of the current active players on either team participated in the 2009–10 series. Carey Price was in the Canadiens lineup, however, he’s no longer an active player, and it was goaltender Jaroslav Halak that led the charge 15 years ago.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals Series Schedule (*If necessary.)

@Washington, Monday, April 21, 7 pm ET.

@Washington, Wednesday, April 23, 7 pm ET.

@Montreal, Friday, April 25, 7 pm ET.

@Montreal, Sunday, April 27, 6:30 pm ET.

@Washington, Wednesday, April 30, TBD.*

@Montreal, Friday, May 2, TBD.*

@Washington, Sunday, May 4, TBD.*

Projected Washington Capitals Lineup

Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – Anthony Beauvillier

Connor McMichael – Pierre-Luc Dubois – Tom Wilson

Andrew Mangiapane – Lars Eller – Ryan Leonard

Brandon Duhaime – Nic Dowd – Taylor Raddysh

John Carlson – Jakub Chychrun

Rasmus Sandin – Matt Roy

Alexander Alexeyev – Trevor van Riemsdyk

Logan Thompson / Charlie Lindgren

Montreal Canadiens Vs. Washington Capitals Regular-Season Games

Game One

The Capitals ended up winning two of the three matchups versus the Habs during the regular season, however, the first game took place on October 31, and it’s only fair to say much has changed since they locked horns six months ago.

The October 31 match-up was a one-sided game that saw the Capitals hold an impressive 17-4 advantage in high-danger chances at 5v5. Consequently, Washington cruised to a 6-3 win over the Canadiens.

At that point in the season, Emil Heineman was playing on the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, while Juraj Slafkovsky featured on the second line, alongside Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook.

We can’t simply erase the game from the records, but I’m not sure if we can use the game to project future results, especially since Cayden Primeau, who is now playing for the Laval Rocket in the AHL, was the starter for the Halloween matchup.

Game Two

The second game took place on December 7, and it resulted in yet another one-sided win for the Capitals. They maintained a 17-6 edge in high-danger shots, emerging with a 4-2 win.

The Canadiens held a 2-0 lead heading into the first intermission, but a pair of goals from Tom Wilson in the third period put the momentum firmly in Washington’s corner. It’s worth noting Ovechkin did not suit up for this particular game.

Montreal’s first line featured Newhook, Suzuki, and Caufield, a good reminder that the Canadiens have gone through some very heavy growing pains throughout the regular season. Samuel Montembeault served as Montreal’s starter, saving 31 of the 34 shots sent his way.

Game 3

The final game resulted in a 3-2 overtime win by the Canadiens, though the scoreline was a little flattering toward the Capitals.

Charlie Lindgren stopped all 9 shots he faced before leaving the game with an upper-body injury, which led to Capitals starter Logan Thompson taking over. Thompson stopped 18 of the 21 shots sent his way.

Montreal ended up with a 30-17 advantage in all-situations shots, however, the Capitals once again held the edge in high-danger chances at 5v5 (6-4), though it was a much closer battle than the previous two matchups between both teams.

The game ended when Suzuki scored one of his five overtime goals of the season, while also counting as one of his nine game-winning goals of the campaign.

Second-Half Statistics

It was a tale of two seasons for the Canadiens, and in a bid to present a more accurate picture of the upcoming series, we’re going to focus on the second-half of the 2024-25 season.

We’re not trying to erase history, but it is clear that the Canadiens are a different team now that Patrik Laine, Alexandre Carrier, and Ivan Demidov are in the mix. It’s also worth pointing out that Calder Trophy favourite Lane Hutson started his NHL career alongside David Savard, which led to some very underwhelming results, both for the team and the player.

Once Hutson was unshackled, not only did his numbers improve by leaps and bounds, so did Montreal’s team-based statistics. By starting the comparison on January 1, we also ensure Ovechkin is included in the analysis, as he had recovered from his broken in late December.

To establish a baseline, we’ll take a look at a few important 5v5 statistics, including shot share (Corsi%), High Danger Chances (HDCF%), expected goals (xGF%), and goal share (GF%).

As you can see, even if we ignore the chaotic first half of the season, the Capitals hold a significant edge in all four categories. The good news for Montreal is that the Capitals aren’t a top-10 team when evaluating important possession metrics, but they’re still well ahead of Martin St-Louis’ troops when it comes to encouraging results.

Such is life when an eight-seed faces the top team in the conference.

As for their special teams, the Capitals once again have an advantage.

Montreal’s powerplay is running at a 20.1% efficiency (21st), compared to 23.3% (14th) for the Capitals. Montreal’s kills 80.9% (9th) of their penalties, whereas the Capitals are a top-5 team in that regard, with 82.3% (4th).

The Canadiens do have a slight edge in the faceoff dot, (50.8% vs. 50.2%), one of their few statistical advantages heading into the series.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

The other factor that may play into Montreal’s hands is their results over the last 10 games. The Habs have carried a 7-1-2 record in the final 10 games of the year, while the Capitals only managed a 4-6-o record. With that in mind, the Canadiens were fighting for their playoff lives, while the Capitals had secured their playoff berth long ago, which certainly had an impact on the effort level from both teams.

We’ll discuss players to watch, matchup details, and X-factors on Friday, however, it’s only fair to say the Habs will have their hands full while facing the Ovechkin and Co.

It will be a series faced with adversity, though that’s when the Habs tend to play their best hockey, as overcoming adversity has become the theme of the season for the Montreal Canadiens.

All Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick. All-situation statistics via NHL.com