Canadiens Mythbusting – Nick Suzuki Is A Number One Centre

Even though Montreal Canadiens captain Nick Suzuki has done a fantastic job dragging his team into the playoff race this season, the same question continues to muddy the waters in regard to the 25-year-old forward’s impact.

Is Suzuki a No.1 centre in the NHL?

Logically, there are 32 No.1 centres in the NHL, which means yes, Suzuki is in fact a No.1 centre by definition.

But let’s take it a step further.

Montreal Canadiens Analysis – Nick Suzuki’s Production

The first thing we’ll evaluate is Suzuki’s production this season.

Raw production totals may not move the needle for some analysts, and we’ll get into the finer details a little later in this article, but you’d have a hard time suggesting Suzuki is better than 31 other centres if he could not provide more offence than his counterparts.

With that in mind, as it stands, Nick Suzuki has 71 all-situation points this season. That’s good for 9th among centres.

But what about his even-strength production? Suzuki has 37 ES points this season, good for 13th among centres.

If we break it down further, his 13 ES goals place him in a tie with Nathan MacKinnon for 33rd among centres, while his 24 ES assists rank 7th.

Therefore, we can safely say that yes, Suzuki is clearly a No.1 centre when discussing his production. You could even argue he’s in the top half of the cutoff, but we’re not here to make that argument, at least not yet. That being said, it would be an easier argument to support than suggesting he’s not a No.1 centre, but I digress.

Nick Suzuki’s Impact On Underlying Numbers

Production is great, but as we all know, there’s a lot more to hockey than just producing.

To get a better idea of his impact on the team’s underlying numbers, we’re going to take a look at a metric I haven’t used very often on this site.

Goals Above Replacement (GAR) keeps a bevy of statistics in mind in an attempt to establish a better overview of a certain player’s impact. For a detailed breakdown, make sure to visit Evolving Hockey’s GAR primer.

The top two centres in the league in GAR happen to play on the same team, which is a hell of a spoiler, but you probably already knew Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are excellent centres.

As it stands, Nick Suzuki ranks 10th overall in the entire league when it comes to his GAR. That’s not just centres, that’s every player in the NHL.

If we isolate the top NHL centres, Suzuki ends up as the fifth-best centre in the league.

Leon Draisaitl – 24.9

Connor McDavid – 20.6

Tim Stutzle – 17.3

Aliaksei Protas – 17.1

Nick Suzuki – 16.9

Sam Reinhart – 16.7

Nathan MacKinnon – 16.6

Gab Vilardi – 16.3

Jack Eichel – 16.2

John Tavares – 15.8

Expected Goals Above Replacement

To take it a step further, we can check out his xGAR, which is the expected goals above replacement. This metric will let you know whether a player’s GAR is sustainable or not.

Suzuki’s xGAR (16.2) is currently 23rd in the entire league, including all positions.

To put a fine point on his impressive impact, Suzuki is tied for 13th among centres. There’s very little discrepancy between his expected and actual GAR, meaning that this isn’t based on luck.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Even if we ignore Suzuki’s fantastic endurance, not to mention his penchant for never missing a game, it’s quite clear that he’s not just a top forward in the league.

It shouldn’t even be a discussion at this point.

Based on the facts, you could probably put together a solid argument to suggest he’s among the top 15 centres in the league, but that’s a topic for another day.

Hockey analysis tends to be rather slow in its application, and out-of-town outlets haven’t been paying close attention to Suzuki’s form in recent years, which explains why many are not ready to admit Suzuki is a No.1 centre.

We should note that Nick Kypreos is far from the only person to suggest Suzuki is not among the league’s best centres, and Justin Bourne did go on to suggest Suzuki is a No.1 centre, something that was not clearly represented in the tweet below. He concluded Suzuki is a top 15 centre, which is what our analysis confirmed.

Nick Kypreos: “When the Habs contend for the Stanley Cup, I’m not even sure Nick Suzuki is a #1 centre for me.”

Justin Bourne: “Yeah you’re probably right…He’s probably the 25th best centre in the league or something you know?”

Nick Suzuki is 8th in points among NHL centres. pic.twitter.com/v8Fmrhv6Cb

— /r/Habs (@HabsOnReddit) March 20, 2025

But once you toss those tired narratives aside and focus on the facts, the truth becomes rather clear.

Some will attempt to denigrate his impact by saying he would not be able to have as much success on a better team, but that suggestion flies in the face of logic. If Suzuki can be a No.1 centre on a bad or mediocre team, he can clearly do the same on a team that would provide him with better teammates. Playing on the mediocre team is much harder than playing for a Stanley Cup contender.

There’s absolutely no grey area in this particular discussion

Nick Suzuki is clearly a No.1 centre in the NHL.

All Montreal Canadiens and Nick Suzuki statistics via Evolving Hockey.