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Evaluating The Canadiens’ Recent Surge and Playoff Odds

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There’s a lot to like about the Montreal Canadiens in recent weeks. Not only have they played a much healthier brand of hockey, they’re also knocking on the door for a Wild Card spot, which would allow them to participate in the playoffs for the first time since they made their magical run to the Stanley Cup final in 2021.



And while it’s certainly an encouraging step in the team’s long term rebuild plans, the question most fans have on their minds is whether this team really has the chops to push for a playoff position.

To get a better idea of how they’ve been playing, we can evaluate the month-to-month results in a few key statistics, including shot share (CF%), high-danger chances (HDCF%), expected goals (xGF%), and actual goals (GF%) at 5-on-5.

Montreal Canadiens 5-on-5 Statistics (2024-25)

montreal canadiens

The first thing that comes to mind when analyzing the results is that October was indeed a tire fire, and that the concerns about the team’s play were clearly justified.

While most people will point to December or January as the best months of the season, I’d argue November was much better from a process standpoint. The results weren’t quite there since they only controlled a little over 44 percent of the goals, but the Canadiens were on the upswing thanks to a few strong games in which they actually managed to control the high-danger scoring chances, a rarity for this team.

ON TOPIC: November Analysis – The Canadiens Are On The Upswing, Here’s Proof

December is an interesting month, because the results were essentially the opposite of November. The Habs struggled to control shots, scoring chances, and expected goals, yet they did control over 50 percent of the goals.

And finally, with Alexandre Carrier in the mix, January is the team’s best month from a shot control perspective, though there’s room for improvement left when it comes to the Canadiens’ share of high-danger chances, as per tradition.

Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds

So, if the Canadiens are playing much better, and are close to the final Wild Card spot, why do most outlets have them on the outside looking in when it comes to their playoff odds?


First off, the Habs went from negligible odds to 20 percent, which is a gigantic improvement. But when we say “they’re playing much better”, we also have to consider the entire season when discussing playoff odds.

As you can see in the chart below, despite improving in a few key areas, Montreal still ranks among the bottom-10 in the league in key stats, which is holding them back. And the changes from year to year, while somewhat encouraging, aren’t good enough to suggest the uptick in results is sustainable. Their inability to control high-danger chances, in particular, is a stain that will be very difficult to remove for head coach Martin St-Louis.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

All things considered, I’d argue the Canadiens are in the midst of taking that famous ‘next step’, but they haven’t quite turned the corner yet. That will take some time, especially when it comes to controlling the best scoring chances on most nights.

That being said, if they maintain their current level of play, their underlying numbers will improve, and consequently, so will their playoff odds, but for now, it’s probably best to temper all expectations as to the playoffs, and enjoy watching a team that’s starting to figure out how to put things together.

Simply put, there’s still a lot of work left to do before we can really start to get excited about the Habs participating in springtime hockey, but they are on the right track.

After all, rebuilds are a marathon, not a sprint.


All Montreal Canadiens Statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.

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Matthew King

Great analysis Marc. I really enjoyed your work. It is not difficult to understand how averages take a long time (and a lot of data) to meaningfully change. However, it is a little difficult to understand how to interpret the data for December and January with the team’s win-loss record. In theory they could be a wild card team and still be underwater on the four indicators you have selected. Thoughts?

GHG55

This is why (well, one of the reasons) we need to be careful about how we approach the trade deadline. I get everyone likes winning, but this is not a legit cup contending team. Yes we’ve beaten the best teams, but that speaks more to the parity and thin margins in the league than having a dominant team (though clearly it’s a very encouraging step!) On every habs article, thread, forum, etc I see people talking about re-signing Evans, Armia, and Savard. I’ve literally also seen pleas to re-sign Dvorak, though admittedly it’s not nearly as common.
Even with these guys it’s not like we’ve been a dominant team. This is not a cup contender, and the whole point of the rebuild was to get away from the Bergevin-style thinking of “just make the playoffs and anything can happen”, and instead build a top tier, perennial cup threat. Roy, Beck, Kapanen, Reinbacher, and Mailloux all have more upside than the pending UFAs. They need playing time. Until this team has more high upside players with experience, we won’t change these numbers. Keeping the expiring vets might get us in the playoffs this year, but their results aren’t going to improve. These vets are likely at their ceilings. We simply need better players. Gotta stop getting blinded by short term results. If we get good offers, trade them. If not, let their contracts expire without extension and make room for more kids to develop.

We have tons of leadership and experience without these guys, both on the ice and – I think this gets overlooked – behind the bench. Don’t need vet 4th liners/bottom pair guys blocking the advancement of the kids. That advancement is the only thing going to change these results cuz the vets won’t magically be better (and don’t bring up Evans, a lone example on the team, who is already seeing a drop off in production from his hot December… 1 month in 5 YEARS of playing)

Kent

So beating the past 5 stanley cup champs, in succession, in their home barns, isn’t turning a corner? Several comeback wins, brutal scheduling.

morrisk

Yeah, that IS big in my book. But our GM comes out and states it means nothing…”we haven’t accomplished anything yet”…

Thomas

Thanks to yesterday’s win Money Puck odds for Canadiens to make the playoffs has increased from 20 percent to 25 percent. If they beat Dallas maybe this can improve to 30 percent. My personal opinion not based on past wins and losses is that they have a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs as I like what my eyes are seeing.

Tyrone

Never thought the Habs would make the playoffs this year, and I still don’t. I’m loving the team success right now, but my eye is still on the long term prize. All UFAs must be traded (don’t forget, we could theoretically re-sign Evans for instance this summer if we wanted to). Right now we’re doing what Ottawa has done the past couple of seasons. Get off to a terrible start, then play great, but fall just short. The Sens have made mistakes thinking they’re further ahead than they were as a result. Let’s not make those same mistakes.

morrisk

Sounds like to you, its not a question of whether or not they make the playoffs…you just don’t want them to. Sounds like you want the tank to continue.

I have stated a myriad of times that just because you tank every season and continue to load up on high draft picks does NOT guarantee your team turns it around and becomes a cup contender, say within about 5 to 6 years. Buffalo, Utah, Ana, SJ, Chic, Det, CLBs…all have been like Ott over the past several seasons.

There is no mistake in going for the playoffs but missing by a point or two. Enough with the hots for the tank. In the long run, it probably won’t matter at this point. Its time to take the training wheels off this tricycle and see what we got…

Tyrone

Sounds exactly like you as well. Read someone’s post, make an incorrect assumption, and go off on a rant.

Nowhere in my post am I saying that I want them to tank or want them to miss the playoffs. I felt before the season began that we didn’t have quite the team that is ready to make the playoffs within the division we’re in. I made it clear I’m loving the success we’re having. I’d be thrilled if we made the playoffs this year, but just because we’ve had a few good weeks, it doesn’t change my initial assessment of where I thought we were in the rebuild. I’m not going to jump on or off the bandwagon based on winning or losing streaks. Before the rebuild began, I felt it would be 5 years before we made the playoffs again. In the first year or two, it’s about stockpiling picks and prospects. In the next year or two it’s about getting those picks and prospects experience. Year 5 is tweaking what should be a pretty good roster and filling any gaps. I fully expect that it won’t be a linear progression either. There will definitely be a step back as the vets age out and get traded away with their experience, and the kids replace them and need time to grow. We can’t expect a guy like Beck to come in and in year 1 or 2 do what Evans is finally doing now after 5+ years. It’s going to take some time and growing pains. Then, there’s still our great hope in Fowler, a goalie, whose position notoriously takes several more years than skaters to hit their stride. Success will come, but it’s still a few years away. Would I like us to make the playoffs and get kids the experience sooner? Heck ya. But I’m not willing to sacrifice what we’ve already suffered through to give us a slightly better chance to get there, and I’m pretty confident the guys running the franchise are in agreement.

morrisk

“Success will come, but it’s still a few years away. Would I like us to make the playoffs and get kids the experience sooner? Heck ya. But I’m not willing to sacrifice what we’ve already suffered through to give us a slightly better chance to get there, and I’m pretty confident the guys running the franchise are in agreement.”

Who said ANYTHING about sacrificing?

I would rather make the playoffs and bow out after RD 1, or just miss the playoffs by a point or two, than play the tank game again…and “hope” for yet another #5 pick. You think Nick and Cole and Hutson want to “sacrifice”?

The success you talk about is here…NOW. Its starting NOW, whether or not you like it or want it. Success is not solely measured by winning the cup, which is still not a guarantee “a few years away”… Sure, that is the pinnacle, but its a journey, not a destination!

If all you care about is the destination, then go route for the Panthers right now and come back “in a few years” when you feel the destination is here.

Size and Tank…Size and Tank…Size and Tank…
That’s 90% of your thinking regarding the Habs…

jb1565

First time posting. I’m not a fan of the newer statistical analytics. They paint one picture that is sometimes opposite the reality of Wins/Losses. This said, they are a useful barometer of trends that should be part of the talent evaluation process. My eyes tell me the team is starting to gel but are to inconsistent to be considered a playoff team. Other than Evans, the other UFAs offer little toward a rebuild and should be traded or let their contracts expire. I can’t agree more that the top prospects should get their chance to play if for nothing else than to see what they really are…some may be over valued but you won’t know until they play. I’ll just enjoy this run while it last, and look forward the the second half of the season that may include a 40 goal scorer and a Caulder trophy winner.

Oh BTW, why isn’t J C Tremblay in the HOF??

Steve

Because he wasn’t that good would be my by guess.

morrisk

Its worth noting that the Habs were decimated with injuries the past two seasons. Either the worst or second worst in the league both seasons in terms of man games lost. This season, by some stroke of luck, they are one of the best in terms of fewest man games lost.

Funny, how winning seems to occur more often when you don’t have injuries! So maybe, the Habs were never THAT bad the last couple of seasons, and only finished that bad because of the myriad of injuries – not lack of talent and/or being too young.

Summary: PuckMoney, and other “playoff odds” websites, can kiss my $ss! They amount to nothing. That’s 0.00% of being correct, in case you were wondering…..

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