The Montreal Canadiens Are On The Upswing, Here’s The Proof

There’s no doubt the Montreal Canadiens started the season on the wrong foot. Beyond the obvious lack of positive results, the team ranked among the worst clubs in the NHL in a bevy of important statistical categories.

It was a frustrating situation for all involved, as the Habs were expected to take a step forward in the rebuild. For all intents and purposes, October marked a significant regression compared to the previous season, a concerning situation, seeing as the Canadiens were far from a strong club in 2023-24.

Fortunately, there’s very encouraging news for the Canadiens on the horizon.

Montreal Canadiens October vs. November (5v5)

Wins are essential, as are goals, but when you’re in the midst of a rebuild, the process becomes the most important factor. Some losses have value, even if the other team seemingly emerges with a one-sided victory. For example, when the Seattle Kraken dominated the Habs 8-2, Martin St-Louis’ team actually did a pretty good job controlling both the shot share (CF%) and the high-danger chances (HDCF%) at 5v5.

It’s only natural to ignore the process when the Canadiens allow opposing teams to convert two points after a touchdown, but despite the score versus the Kraken, it was a sign things were improving. If we’re being brutally honest, given how poorly the Habs played in October, it would have been very difficult to get worse.

Regardless, the uptick in November’s possession numbers is quite encouraging from a long-term standpoint. To give you an idea of how much they’ve improved in the last stretch, we’ve broken down their key stats to compare the month-to-month change.

Montreal Canadiens Predictive Statistics

In the table embedded below, CF% stands for Corsi For Percentage. It measures how many shots a team controlled, including the pucks that go wide. For example, if the Habs took 53 shots, and their opponents managed 47, the Canadiens would have a 53 CF%. I tend to use the term ‘shot share’, rather than Corsi, because it’s much simpler and more accurate.

High-danger scoring chances (HDCF%) is the percentage of quality scoring opportunities the team controls. This is a crucial statistic, since it’s well known that not all shots are created equally. Almost half the goals in the NHL are scored from the high-danger areas near the crease.

Expected goal share (xGF%) focuses on shot quality to determine how many goals the team (or player) is expected to control during a certain stretch. Shot quality includes location, distance, angle, shot type (rebound, off the rush, etc), and more.

As you can see, the statistics produced by St-Louis’ team in October were awful. For the majority of the month, they were dead last in all three categories, but a few decent outings at the end of October ensured they were no longer 32nd overall.

That was the start of the surge in results, which gained a lot of momentum in November. We’re dealing with a smaller sample size, but there’s no denying the improvements across the board were not only uplifting, but also noteworthy.

It’s much too early to suggest the Canadiens are on their way to a playoff spot, or that the rebuild has really taken a healthy step forward, however, we’re discussing serious upticks in these puck control metrics. Going from 30th to 17th in shot share is a good start, bolstered by the fact that the Habs are knocking on the door of the top-10 in both high-danger scoring chances and expected goals in November.

We should note that ever since St-Louis took over, the Canadiens have had a very hard time controlling high-danger shots. Being 11th in the NHL isn’t just a good sign, it’s unchartered territory for the team’s head coach.

Cole Caufield outworks Draisaitl and sets up a great goal by Kaiden Guhle. Jake Evans gets the other assist.

2-0 #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/TDyjHtJo9a

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) November 19, 2024

Montreal Canadiens Results-Based Statistics

If we move our focus to result-based stats, we can confirm that the strong process has led to improved results. The Canadiens are a mid-pack team in goal share, while their team save percentage has improved as well. There’s still some work to be done for the latter, but based on recent results, it seems that starter Samuel Montembeault has put his difficult start behind him.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Fans are probably a little sick of discussing the process, and I won’t fault anyone if they disregard the statistics posted above, but there’s no denying the Habs have played a much healthier brand of hockey in the last 10 or so games.

It’s also interesting to note their shooting percentage dropped slightly in November, confirming that the recent improvements are not solely based on shooting luck or hot goaltending.

Of course, the Canadiens aren’t out of the forest yet.

It’s more like they finally managed to build a shelter, and no longer have to endure being rained on for weeks at a time. All things considered, that’s a great situation compared to the first few weeks of the year, which was the equivalent of the team lying on the ground in a fetal position, slathered in barbecue sauce while various packs of wolves circled them.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5, via Natural Stat Trick.