The Long Overdue Canadiens Decision To Help Kaiden Guhle

There’s a clear disconnect when discussing Montreal Canadiens defenceman Kaiden Guhle’s importance to the team while also evaluating his underlying numbers in the last few seasons.

Simply put, Guhle’s stats have been well below average, though playing against the opposing team’s top players since he was a rookie certainly has something to do with it. It’s also easy to forget seeing as this is his third season in the NHL, but before Lane Hutson joined the fold, Guhle was the youngest defenceman in the lineup.

In other words, he was thrown to the wolves from the very get-go, and to make matters worse, most of his defensive partners had a long history of producing underwhelming numbers, making Guhle’s assignment about as difficult as it gets in the NHL.

Oh, and did we forget to mention that for the most part, Guhle has played on his off side?

For some players, it’s not an issue, but for others, it complicates things significantly, especially if they’re tasked with quickly retrieving pucks and generating controlled exits out of the defensive zone.

Jordan Harris, for example, did quite well in that regard while he was playing on the left, but having to use his backhand while corralling pucks meant that his breakouts suffered considerably when he was used on the right.

The same phenomenon occurred when Guhle was playing on the right, though to a lesser degree than Harris. The extra half second it took for him to get control of pucks not only led to a downtick in zone exits, it was also paired with a long history of forecheckers hitting Guhle directly in the numbers, resulting in a bevy of injuries.

To The Left, To The Left

The factors that limited Guhle’s impact were impossible to ignore, but without any evidence that he’s best off playing on the left side, it was a theory, at best.

An educated theory, if you will.

Fortunately, head coach Martin St-Louis decided to switch things up for his 22-year-old defenceman midway through the month, as Guhle was finally returned to his left side when the Canadiens faced the Buffalo Sabres on November 11.

The Canadiens won 7-5, marking their first victory since October 27.

As for Guhle, even though the Sabres held a shot advantage, he still managed to control over 55 of the shots during his shifts.

He would go on to produce similar results in the following games, a stretch that featured the Habs winning three of their four games. Coincidentally, or not, the team’s best streak took place while Guhle was playing on his natural side.

It was extremely apparent during Monday’s clinical 3-0 win over the Oilers, in which Guhle and Mike Matheson did a masterful job shutting down one of the best players in NHL history, Connor McDavid.

Cole Caufield outworks Draisaitl and sets up a great goal by Kaiden Guhle. Jake Evans gets the other assist.

2-0 #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/TDyjHtJo9a

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) November 19, 2024

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

To put a fine point on how much the change has improved his results, while playing on the right side this season, Guhle has controlled 42.1% of the shots, 42.5% of the expected goals, and 44.2% of the high-danger chances. Those are below-replacement numbers.

While playing on the left, Guhle has controlled 57.7% of the shots, 63.8% of the expected goals, and 60% of the high-danger chances. The sample size is much smaller, but those are elite numbers.

We can’t plan any Norris Trophy celebration parties just yet, however, the stark contrast in results goes to show that with a tiny bit of help, Guhle was able to improve his play considerably.

To be more accurate, removing one of the many barriers put in his way was a change that was long overdue.

All Montreal Canadiens Statistics Are 5v5 unless otherwise noted. Via Natural Stat Trick.