Canadiens Could Be In the Mix For A Lottery Pick, And That’s Okay

The Montreal Canadiens have once again been hit by the injury bug, and it’s put a major damper on their playoff hopes, just a few weeks into the season.

At the start of the season, NHL betting odds predicted another bottom-five finish for the Habs, and that’s exactly where they find themselves today.

With injuries to key players like Juraj Slafkovsky, Patrik Laine and Kaiden Guhle, the Canadiens’ glaring lack of depth has become ever more apparent.

But, to be fair, what team wouldn’t be hurt from losing two top-six wingers and one of their top-pair defencemen?

With Ivan Demidov still a few months away from joining the Canadiens, the only home-grown forwards in this current rebuild to have cracked the Canadiens’ roster are Slafkovsky and Oliver Kapanen.

Therein lies the problem.

Factor in Kirby Dach’s expected rustiness from missing a year of action from MCL and ACL surgery, and the Canadiens’ secondary scoring is practically nonexistent.

It puts the Canadiens, who have started the year strong the last two seasons, in uncharted territory.

Canadiens Scoring Woes

Despite losing Kirby Dach early last season, the Canadiens were in the playoff mix for the first two months of the 2023-2024 season; thanks to a notable offensive boost from their defencemen.

The Canadiens led the league last season with goals from the backend, and, unfortunately for them, that has not been the case so far through seven games.

Only Justin Barron, Logan Mailloux and Kaiden Guhle have found the back of the net; a 16.7% share of the club’s goal totals. For reference, the Canadiens defencemen accounted for nearly 21% of their total goals during the 2023-2024 season, so the drop-off has had an effect.

But a team’s defensive brigade isn’t supposed to bail out their lack of forward scoring depth year after year; and the Canadiens are seeing it come full circle at the moment.

Through seven games, only Cole Caufield (6) has more than two goals on the year so far; with Nick Suzuki, Emil Heineman and Brendan Gallagher posting two goals on the year.

Yes, Laine’s loss hurts the Canadiens’ scoring, but, even without him, this seems to be a continuation of the same problem the Canadiens had last season.

The biggest difference between the start of last year and this year? Goaltending isn’t bailing out the club anymore.

Cracks In The Defence

Despite there being a trio of goaltenders splitting time in Montreal last season, Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau were among the best in the NHL last season for stealing games.

They began the year with some great performances last year, which helped propel the Canadiens into the playoff discussion early on, before things took a turn prior to the 2023 Holidays.

This season, it seems the goaltending has become a little more unpredictable. Despite having allowed three or more goals over his last three starts, Montembeault walked into the Tuesday night’s game against the New York Rangers with 2.04 goals saved above expected.

It was actually the highest among Canadian-born goaltenders in the NHL, until he allowed four goals in the first period against the Rangers.

Meanwhile, Primeau, who showed promise at the end of last season, has been shaky at best in his first few starts, and looked even more shaken when he came in relief of Montembeault against the Rangers.

Having their goaltending steal games for them in the past is what separated the Montreal Canadiens from the worst teams in the NHL over the last two seasons.

So what happens to their level of competitiveness in a very tight Atlantic division if their goalies can’t regularly stand on their heads? Well, it doesn’t bode well.

A lot of it can be attributed to the Canadiens’ extremely young defensive corps, one of the youngest in the NHL. Outside of David Savard (34) and Mike Matheson (30), youngsters Kaiden Guhle (22), Lane Hutson (20), Arber Xhekaj (23), Justin Barron (22), Jayden Struble (23) and Logan Mailloux (21) make up the rest of the defensive brigade.

That’s a significant amount of youth, with many being asked to play more minutes than they should; due to a lack of veteran depth.

Unless the Canadiens can quickly turn their defensive tactics around, it may be a tough year of learning for the young brigade, as they continue to gain new responsibilities.

It may mean more difficult nights for Montembeault and Primeau in the short-term, but it’s part of the process of a rebuilding club; as defencemen usually have the longest progression curve of any skater in hockey.

Another Lottery Pick For the Montreal Canadiens?

So should fans already be throwing in the towel for the season?

Probably too soon to say, but, given how the Montreal Canadiens have teetered off in the standings as the seasons have worn on, their rough start is not a good sign.

And it’s very unlikely that the Canadiens will make a trade to rectify the defensive and scoring issues in the short-term.

There is some hope for Canadiens fans, as Patrik Laine is slated to come back around the Holidays later this year, but he’ll likely be rusty from over 12 months of in-season inactivity. It was unfair to expect him to be the Canadiens’ saviour after missing so much time with the Columbus Blue Jackets, and it’s even more true with his latest setback.

In the unfortunate event where the Canadiens do find themselves in the basement of the NHL standings again this season, there are quite a few options to help supercharge their scoring at the top of the 2025 NHL Draft.

As of right now, Boston College rookie James Hagens appears to be the front-runner at the top of the draft; with his blazing skill, elite Hockey IQ and silky hands causing all sorts of damage at last spring’s U-18 tournament; en route to breaking the tournament’s scoring record.

Then there’s power-forward Porter Martone. the 6-foot-3, 208-pound winger has been scoring at over two points-per-game to start the season, with 10 goals and 20 points in just 9 games for the Brampton Steelheads.

Another interesting profile is that of Roger McQueen, a 6-foot-5 behemoth of a centre who has been lighting it up for the Brandon Wheat Kings with eight goals and 11 points in eight games. He’s unfortunately now out of action with an injury, but a centre of his size, with that kind of skill, could change the face of any team’s top-six.

There’s also Michael Misa of the Saginaw Spirit; a former teammate of Owen Beck’s in junior. The former Exceptional Player got his season started on the right foot this year, putting up 14 goals and 21 points in just 10 games. The 6-foot-1 scoring winger has been lighting the lamp with ease so far, putting the Spirit in a good position to potentially go another long post-season run.

There is also a long list of other talented players like Anton Frondell (C), Malcom Spence (F), Ivan Ryabkin (C) , Matthew Schaefer (RD), Logan Henlser (RD) that can be real difference-makers for the future.

It’s likely not what anyone wants to hear at this junction of an NHL season, but it very-well may be the last time things look this grim for the Montreal Canadiens moving forward.