Canadiens Prospect Rankings: Ivan Demidov Is A Game Changer

We’ve finally reached the peak of the Montreal Canadiens prospect rankings, ending our summer project with one of the most talented players to ever join the organization, forward Ivan Demidov.

Previously Published 2024 Montreal Canadiens Summer Prospect Rankings (Top 5)

To qualify for our list, Habs prospects must be 23 years old or younger, and have fewer than 100 NHL games under their belt.

Canadiens Prospect Rankings – No.5: David Reinbacher’s Complicated Season

Canadiens Prospect Rankings – No.4: Joshua Roy Deserves More Credit

Canadiens Prospect Rankings – No.3: Jacob Fowler The Next Great Hope

Canadiens Prospect Rankings – No.2: Lane Hutson The Phenom

1. Ivan Demidov, 18, Forward (RW/C), SKA-1946 St. Petersburg (MHL), 6’0″, 192 lb. Picked 5th overall in 2024.

Few will argue with Ivan Demidov’s quick ascension as the top Montreal Canadiens prospect. With all due to respect to Lane Hutson, which is a lot, Demidov is the exact player the team was missing in their prospect pool before being able to suggest the organization has talent and depth at every position. Besides, Hutson reigned as the team’s best prospect from the time he was drafted until the moment Demidov was picked by longtime Canadiens fan, Céline Dion, which is a very impressive stretch considering he was a late second-round selection.

While the team has finally assembled what can be considered a legitimate top line in Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield, there was no doubt the overall talent level among forwards left something to be desired, even if we consider Kirby Dach, Joshua Roy, and Alex Newhook as impact players, which they certainly can be when given the opportunity.

As talented as they are, I’d argue none of the aforementioned players have the same type of game-changing potential as Demidov. Slafkovsky is still quite young, and his impressive growth in the second-half of the 2023-24 season points to a player who is yet to scratch the surface of his long-term abilities, but I’m not yet convinced he’s on the same level as Demidov. To be clear, Slafkovsky, Suzuki, and the others can end up being considered among the best players at their position, however, Demidov’s skill set suggests he has the talent to possibly become a top-10 player in the entire NHL.

To get a better idea of how well he played prior to being drafted by the Canadiens, we can compare his production to other NHL players who evolved in Russia. Of course, the overall strength of Russian leagues has diminished in recent years, something we must keep in mind while evaluating his point totals, but suffice it to say he scored enough to mitigate the level of concern regarding the quality of competition he faced in the MHL.

The table embedded below includes results from under-18 seasons in the MHL, and as you can see, Demidov is responsible for the most productive U-18 campaign in league history, both in terms of raw totals (19 goals and 45 assists in 44 games), as well as his scoring pace (1.45 points per game).

The goal isn’t to directly compare Demidov to Nikita Kucherov or Matvei Michkov, but rather, give Canadiens fans a better understand of why Demidov carried so much hype into the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. He followed up his fantastic under-18 campaign with an encouraging performance in the playoffs, with five goals and eight assists in just 10 games. Demidov maintained his production throughout the 2023-24 regular season, to the tune of 23 goals and 37 assists in 30 games. His two points per game ranks as the best scoring rate for an under-19 player in league history. Kucherov (1.87 points per game) and Michkov (1.82 points per game) are the only players who came close to matching Demidov’s output.

To put a fine point on how well be played prior to the Habs drafting him fifth overall, we can focus on his production in the playoffs last season. I know some will suggest playoff production is not indicative of a player’s overall value and potential, but when we’re discussing prospects, playoff production is often the most recent data available, thus making it quite relevant when it comes to projecting a prospect’s impact. Admittedly, his playoff production in 2023-24 also puts Demidov in the best light possible, as it was the best playoff run in league history for an under-19 player, but that’s par for the course when you score 11 goals and 17 assists in just 16 games.

Unfortunately, Demidov’s historic run was cut short when he suffered a lower-body injury, but there seems to be no lingering effect in play as he hit the ground running in preseason action this season.

What The Draft Experts Are Saying About Ivan Demidov

Rather than repeating some of the many, many, many compliments I have given Demidov since he was drafted, we will now turn to professional scouts to give us a better understanding of what he can bring to the table for the Habs. Suffice it to say, Canadiens fans are not the only ones who are excited about his NHL potential.

“Demidov is a dexterous, mechanically sound puck handler with the sort of fast-twitch wrists necessary to bring his ideas to life. Every move serves a purpose, whether improving the quality of his look as a shooter or creating openings in the defence that he can exploit as a distributor. And the same dexterity and touch that makes him so effective as a handler is every bit as present when he’s ready to send the puck elsewhere.” – Elite Prospects.

“Demidov is an elite offensive talent with elite hockey sense in high danger scoring areas. He can be deceptive with the puck on his stick when he walks off the wall, or makes plays from below the goal line. Demidov rarely disappointed with his defensive awareness as we went through the process of breaking down dozens of his games this season. Some players are programmed to battle more than others and Demidov’s combination of skill and will is noticeable.” – Sportsnet.

“The most dynamic offensive talent in this draft, Demidov averaged over two points per game in Russia’s U20 league. He was a dominant force, but his lack of KHL games and an inability to get live viewings of him against top peers in international competition like his predecessors does create an element of risk with Demidov. To the eye, however, he’s a natural shot-pass threat player who always seems to make the right read and finishes plays with regularity. His skating is closer to average, but he still has the ability to skate with some power and use his strength to get to the interior. He’s hard to knock off pucks, too. In the level he played at, his off-puck play was mostly strong. He plays an aggressive game in puck pursuit and has made that a significant part of his game, which only helps him to get the puck back more.” – Flo Hockey.

“A fantastically creative, dynamic, intelligent, and potent winger, Ivan Demidov could develop into a perennial Top 10 scorer league-wide. He finds highly effective yet stunningly creative solutions to many problems he encounters, and leverages his variety of elite tools to do so – relying less and less on his handling to do all the heavy lifting for him. He’s an active player off-puck, prodding for holes and riding blind spots, even possessing a plus-level motor on both sides of the puck and a desire to get engaged defensively. But it’s with the puck on his stick where he shines brightest. Featuring a near Datsyukian flair, Demidov can dissect defences all on his own – though he favours possession over trying to do so regularly. He’s the best puck handler we’ve scouted in the past 3 drafts, Bedard included.” – Dobber Prospects.

ON TOPIC: Instant Analysis: Canadiens Hit Home Run With Ivan Demidov Pick

Reasonable Expectations? We Don’t Need No Reasonable Expectations!

As for why Canadiens fans seem to be even more excited than usual, a quick look at the team’s draft record prior to the 2022 NHL Entry Draft will reveal a laundry list of first-round prospects who failed to make their mark. There are various reasons for the first-round failures, and not all of them were a result of the team picking the wrong player, but you’d be hard-pressed to argue the NHL Draft has provided the Canadiens with as  much value as it has for other organizations.

Then there’s the matter of the statistical comparisons. As we already discussed, he was arguably the best player in MHL history, which has led to some rather lofty comparisons. Byron Bader‘s model has Demidov up there with Connor Bedard in terms of projected impact. What’s more, that particular comparison has draft-year comparables such as John Tavares, Paul Kariya, Patrik Kane, and Sidney Crosby, an impressive list to say the least.

Ivan Demidov and Connor Bedard together would be something. Chicago drafting these guys in back-to-back drafts is akin to the Penguins getting Malkin and Crosby back-to-back in ’04 and ’05. Would really jumpstart the rebuild. https://t.co/A1zU9XQ2Rj pic.twitter.com/1WjxlYjpSU

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) April 2, 2024

At the risk of overhyping Demidov, Bader’s model believes the Russian forward’s play in the MHL is on par with what we saw from some fairly well known hockey players prior to their rookie seasons in the NHL. Players such as Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Connor McDavid, among others. I don’t want to suggest Demidov will become one of the best players in league history, but it’s difficult not to get excited when statistical analysis and video evidence points to legitimate comparisons with some of the NHL’s greatest forwards.

The Next Step For Ivan Demidov

Demidov is such an interesting prospect because many of his skills, including his shooting and skating, are hard to evaluate based on traditional scouting. That’s not to say scouts are incompetent, or that Demidov has found a new way to play hockey, but one thing is for certain, he was not cast from the same mould as most hockey stars.

Playing a full season in the KHL will give us a better idea of how far off he is from being NHL ready, though we should guard ourselves from overreacting to every single play. He’s still learning, and consequently, he’s still making mistakes. We also have to remember he’s about to take the most significant step in his career, going from the MHL, the Russian equivalent to the CHL, all the way to the KHL. A grace period is in order so that the talented forward can find his rhythm. There will be much less time and space in play, which calls for an acclimatization period.

With that in mind, expect Demidov to once again produce more than his fair share of highlight plays, because that’s what he does best.

Do you agree or disagree with our Montreal Canadiens prospect rankings?  Let us know in the comments below!

Ivan Demidov statistics via the Elite Prospects. Cover picture via Russia Hockey.