Canadiens Prospect Rankings: Joshua Roy Deserves More Credit

We’ve almost reached the final stretch of our 2024 Montreal Canadiens prospect rankings, which means are now discussing one of the most interesting players in the system, forward Joshua Roy. To qualify for our list, Habs prospects must be 23 years old or younger, and have fewer than 100 NHL games under their belt.

Previously Published 2024 Montreal Canadiens Summer Prospect Rankings

Players Who Missed The Cut And Prospects Ranked No.40 to No.31

Top Montreal Canadiens Prospects: Ranked No.30 to No.26

Top Montreal Canadiens Prospects: Ranked No.25 to No.21

Top Montreal Canadiens Prospects: Ranked No.20 to No.16

Top Montreal Canadiens Prospects: Ranked No.15 to No.11

Top Montreal Canadiens Prospects: Ranked No.10 to No.6

Canadiens Prospect Rankings – No.5: David Reinbacher’s Complicated Season

4. Joshua Roy, Centre/Winger, 20, Montreal Canadiens (NHL)/Laval Rocket (AHL), 6’0″, 200 lb. Picked 150th overall in 2021.

While it’s true the Canadiens prospect pool was rather shallow in terms of elite talent prior to picking Ivan Demidov at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, there were a few players in the mix who owned the type of skill set that easily translates to the professional level. One of those players was Joshua Roy, a prospect who was originally labelled as lazy, which led to every team in the NHL passing up on an opportunity to draft him several times, including the Canadiens.

Before we delve into Roy’s impressive professional hockey debut, it’s worth discussing how we treat young players prior to the draft. While it’s true Roy did coast on his talent at the start of his QMJHL career, it wasn’t necessarily a case of laziness as many suggested at the time, nor was it arrogance. It was a lack of guidance from coaches that led to Roy relying on his pure talent to drive his overall value when he was roughly 16 years old. I do not blame him, as it was the only way he knew how to play hockey, but we do have to give Roy credit for his mature decision to address his issues once he was traded from the Saint John Sea Dogs to the Sherbrooke Phoenix. Many gave head coach Stephane Julien credit for working with Roy, and there’s no doubt his input was crucial when it came to the prospect’s impressive evolution, but Julien himself will quickly point to Roy’s willingness to learn as the most important factor of his growth.

This brings us back to the crux of the issue when it comes to character of players being drafted. We tend to toss harsh labels on players and call it a day. Those labels, which are mostly applied in the early stages of their junior hockey careers, are very tough to remove, regardless of how well the prospect plays. It’s a market inefficiency, one that the Canadiens exploited perfectly when they landed Roy in the fifth round. It’s also a good reminder that teams have to sift through the white noise when there’s a significant amount of natural talent at play.

Roy had the talent to be a first-round pick, but he hadn’t yet had the opportunity to work on the other aspects that would one day help him ascend to the NHL. You can’t teach talent, it’s innate, but a strong work ethic can be instilled by professional coaches. It’s a lesson worth keeping in mind as the team continues to stockpile prospects via the draft.

Joshua Roy Making The Jump To Professional Hockey

The reason many of us were so high on Roy’s ability to transition to professional hockey was that he enjoyed one of the most impressive evolutions from a prospect in recent team history. To borrow from myself, if I may, the best way to describe Roy’s defensive acumen during his first year in the QMJHL was that he would not have been able to identify his own goalie in a police lineup.

Again, that’s not particularly surprising for a young, talented player, but it is the type of issue that will give coaches the impression prospects are not to be trusted with important ice time. However, Roy worked very hard to improve his overall game, to the point that he became a staple on the penalty kill in the final two seasons of his QMJHL career. By adding strong defensive positioning to his repertoire, along with skill in transition, great vision, a deceptive release, and a nose for the net, Roy did what very few Canadiens prospects have done before him, he was a legitimate 200-foot player prior to the start of his professional hockey career.

There’s a reason every player, including Connor Bedard, improves their overall level of play when they’re on the ice with Roy. He’s a cerebral player who creates time and space for his linemates, the true sign of a top-notch hockey player. This allowed him to make a seamless transition to the AHL, to the tune of five goals and seven assists in his first 11 games with the Laval Rocket. Crucially, Roy maintained his excellent shot volume, not to mention his affinity for cutting to the middle of the ice to gain access to high-danger scoring areas before using his deceptive release to score.

#Habs prospect Joshua Roy scores his first AHL goal off a nice little move to deke his coverage. pic.twitter.com/ywXCt1Xbxu

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) October 13, 2023

Despite the calls from fans and media alike to immediately promote Roy to the Canadiens lineup after his strong start, Kent Hughes and Co. wisely gave him a little more time to get acclimatized to the speed of play in the AHL before throwing him to the wolves in the NHL. It paid off, as Roy went through two dry spells shortly after his great start, a perfectly normal situation for a player with little to no professional hockey experience. Being in the AHL meant there was less scrutiny, and consequently, Roy quickly worked out his early-season issues before putting together what can only be described as an excellent rookie season. Roy finished the year with 13 goals and 19 assists in 41 games with the Rocket.

Joshua Roy Joins The Montreal Canadiens

While there’s value to giving a young player a little time to get up to speed before a promotion that could lead to a baptism by fire, it reached the point that the Canadiens simply couldn’t justify keeping their top forward prospect in the minors, especially since the team was struggling from an offensive standpoint.

From the very get-to, it was clear that Roy wasn’t just treading water in the NHL. He quickly established himself as one of the team’s best forwards, and I’d go as far as suggesting he also eventually established himself as a player that deserves top-six usage. I’m not a fan of big proclamations, especially in the current sports media landscape that rewards people for being loud while providing very little substance in their analysis. With that in mind, I have no issues proposing Roy not only deserves a roster spot next season, he should also  be pencilled in as a favourite to play on the wing of the first or second lines.

RELATED TOPIC: Montreal Canadiens Analysis: Improving Depth Among Forwards

Training camp will go a long way in determining where he’ll start the year, but the numbers powering Roy’s first NHL audition point to a player who has the potential to become a core forward in the organization. We all know he scored four goals and five assists in 21 games, which equates to 14 goals and 18 assists in an 82-game prorated season.

But a close look at his underlying numbers reveal that from an individual standpoint, Roy’s offensive contributions at 5v5 were incredibly impressive. He ranked first in a bevy of crucial metrics among all forwards who played 200 or more minutes at 5v5, including shot share (CF%), expected goal share (xGF%), high-danger scoring chances (HDCF%), assists per 60, points per 60, and individual expected goals (iXG%).

via https://www.naturalstattrick.com

What’s more, as you can see in the table above, if he wasn’t first on the team he was almost always in the top five. The cherry on Roy’s rookie sundae was his reliability with the puck, something that takes usually takes a few years to perfect. Roy had the most takeaways per 60 on the team, while he coughed the puck very rarely. In other words, when Roy was on the ice, not only did he play well, he also made his linemates better, which, in turn, made the Canadiens a better team.

That’s the type of impact we’ve seen from players like Nick Suzuki and Kirby Dach, though it’s only fair to point out it took them a few seasons before they had the ability to drive the play and maintain great statistics are both ends of the ice, whereas Roy immediately made a significant positive impact.

Joshua Roy Going Forward

At this point, it feels a little hypocritical to tell Canadiens fans they should temper their expectations as to Roy’s play in 2024-25, but we do have to allow for a sophomore slump. It should be noted Roy will officially still be considered a rookie next season, as he has only played 23 of the 25 games allotted to players before they lose their rookie status.

Regardless of the Calder Trophy race, we should give Roy the same type of grace period that we would give other young players. But if the numbers are any indication, and they usually are, the odds that Roy will regress are quite low.

He’s well-rounded, smart, versatile, talented, and has quickly adapted to every level of play throughout his hockey career. As long as the Habs continue to give him opportunities, he should be able to improve his value to the club.

And to think, 149 players heard their names called by an NHL team before the Canadiens eventually landed Roy in the fifth round of the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. Again, the reason Roy fell was because a few scouts decided he was lazy when he was a teenager. Ironically, given his development, you could easily suggest their early reports on Roy’s potential epitomized laziness, as they focused on his one fixable weakness rather than his many strong points.

Do you agree or disagree with our Montreal Canadiens prospect rankings??  Let us know in the comments below with a respectful reply that follows our community guidelines. No personal insults will be tolerated.

All Montreal Canadiens and Joshua Roy statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.