Calgary Rebuild Could Prompt Canadiens To Dangle Pick In Trade

The Montreal Canadiens have two 1st rounders in the 2025 NHL Draft, but Calgary’s apparent rebuild could prompt them to trade one of them.

Owning both their own and the Calgary Flames 1st-rounders for the next draft, it would be the fourth draft in a row that the Canadiens would go into late June with two picks in the top-32.

The Montreal Canadiens initially acquired a conditional 1st-round pick from Calgary in the ever so confusing Sean Monahan trade in the summer of 2022.

When Calgary was still a middle-of-the-pack team in the NHL, the prospect of receiving a pick within the first 11 to 17 picks of the 2025 NHL Draft was a very real possibility.

However, Calgary recent teardown and surprising turn to rebuilding has changed the outlook and could alter the Canadiens’ strategy with the pick they acquire almost two years ago.

Simple Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes hypnotized the entire hockey world when the multitude of conditions regarding the acquisition of this pick were made public.

We’ll try to simplify it for you:

Montreal will receive Calgary’s 1st-round pick if the pick is not a top-10 pick, but, if their pick is a top-10 pick come June 2025, the Canadiens would receive the Florida Panthers’ 2025 1st-rounder.

Calgary initially received Florida’s 2025 1st-round pick in the Matthew Tkachuk trade of 2022, but will only have the pick transferred to them if Florida doesn’t win the lottery in 2025.

Considering that NHL betting odds have the Panthers as favourites to win the Stanley Cup for next season, there’s a very good chance they make the playoffs next season again next year.

So, the worse Calgary does, the more likely the Canadiens will be to receiving Florida’s 2025 1st rounder next season.

But just how bad is Calgary expected to be?

Calgary’s Outlook

The 2024-2025 Calgary Flames will look very different in September than they did a year ago, having lost come key veterans in the process.

After the departures of Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Jacob Markstrom, Andrew Mangiapane, and Nikita Zadorov, the Flames will be in for a fight in the Pacific Division.

Already having to contend with the mighty Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks, they’ll have to outpace the LA Kings, Vegas Golden Knights and the improved Seattle Kraken for a playoff run.

Their forward corps, headlined by Nazem Kadri, Yegor Sharangovich and Jonathan Huberdeau, is good but not great and will be reliant on youngsters taking the next step to remain competitive.

And, with clear weakness on defence, along with an unproven yet promising, Dustin Wolf as their expected starter, things will likely be bumpy in Calgary next season.

So, unless Calgary has a real resurgence and finishes outside the bottom-10 next season, the Canadiens would likely be getting Florida’s 2025 1st-rounder; which will probably slot between 20th and 32nd overall.

Likely Trade Chip?

Banking on the struggling Flames likely continuing to falter and further their veteran fire sale throughout the upcoming season, the Montreal Canadiens could look to flip the pick for a more proven asset.

They’re still on the lookout for some help in their top-six this summer and remain patient to find the right deal, and Calgary’s/Florida’s 1st rounder could be a big piece in such a move.

For the Canadiens, another late 1st would be more of the same; they’ve had one in each of the last three drafts. Of those three selections, only one was used to draft a player (Filip Mesar), the other two were traded to either move up (Michael Hage) or for a promising youngster (Alex Newhook).

With the Montreal Canadiens looking to take the next step in their rebuild, and as the Flames get set to start their own, it almost seems like a foregone conclusion that this pick won’t make it to June 2025.

It’s simply a matter of when.

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