Habs Prospects
Canadiens Prospects: Discussing Fowler’s Potential Contract
One of the top Montreal Canadiens prospects is expected to sign with the franchise in the near future.
Goaltending Reinforcements
All eyes are on Jacob Fowler, the Boston College goaltender who has put together two very encouraging seasons in the NCAA.
Fowler maintained a 57-13-3 record in 74 games with the Eagles, not to mention a 1.9 goals against average, and a .932 save percentage. He’s easily among the best goaltending prospects in the entire hockey landscape, and is expected to one day play an important role for the Canadiens, as he does have starter potential.
He takes a stoic approach to goaltending, focusing on tracking and positioning, rather than quick lateral transitions. He wastes very little energy, using his anticipation to eliminate most of the shooting options for opponents. He’s also a fierce competitor, and will not hesitate to protect his own crease should he feel the opposing team is taking liberties.
It remains to be seen what direction the Canadiens will take when it comes to Fowler’s contract, but he will most likely burn a year of his contract by signing his entry-level contract, rather than signing an amateur tryout with the Laval Rocket and delaying his ELC by a year, as some have suggested. By signing his entry-level contract and playing one game for the Canadiens, Fowler will no longer be eligible to play for the Rocket.
Considering the Montreal Canadiens are in the midst of a hard-fought playoff race in the NHL, Fowler’s potential arrival does add an interesting option to the mix.
MUST READ: Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds – Down To The Wire
Samuel Montembeault has struggled in recent starts, and Jakub Dobes has cooled down since enjoying a great start to his NHL career. I’m not convinced this would be the best approach, but seeing as the Habs went out of their way to ‘paper’ Dobes, perhaps they will reassign him to the AHL, where he’s eligible to play in the Calder Cup playoffs, while handing the backup reins to an inexperienced Fowler.
It’s not the most cautious approach, but every single point matters, which means the Canadiens may be willing to throw the dice and bet on Fowler’s potential. He’s shown he can handle the pressure in big games, from his USHL championship with the Youngstown Phantoms, to his many tournament games in the NCAA, connoting there’s a possibility the Habs are attempting to catch lightning in a bottle in a desperate attempt to bolster their playoff odds.
With that in mind, there’s clearly a significant difference in quality between the NCAA and the NHL, and rushing goaltenders to the big show tends to backfire, whereas using the slow-cooker method, set it and forget it, tends to yield positive goaltender development results.
We also have to keep Fowler’s intentions in mind. His camp holds most of the leverage in this situation, and many college players look forward to a signing bonus the moment they leave the NCAA. The Canadiens will have their say, but in the end, Fowler is in the driver’s seat.
How does Fowler have all the leverage? Don’t we control his rights for 4 years? If he doesn’t want to go to Laval, then tough titties, he can stay in the NCAA for another year. I think burning off a year of his ELC is unwise, as goalies take so much longer to develop. If he refuses to go to the NCAA, there’s always playing pro in Europe like Matthews did. Hughes seems to have the silver tongue, so I would be surprised that he couldn’t convince him to go to Laval and a potential Calder Cup championship, just like Price did at the beginning of his career. It doesn’t seem like a negative at all to me.
Ultimately, he can simply tell them he wants to head back to the NCAA, since he has the final word.
I don’t think that’s his M.O., but we do have to keep the player’s point of view in mind, especially when it comes to college players. Money is a factor as well. Don’t forget, if they’re leaving college, they’ll want a revenue stream. A signing bonus + NHL salary for a few weeks looks great to someone who has been eaten ramen in a dorm room for a couple of years.
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Hughes isn’t about to tell our top goalie prospect, and potentially top goalie prospect in the league, “tough titties”. It’s just not going to happen. Besides, whichever contract he signs doesn’t guarantee him multiple games played, that’ll mostly be decided by the coach, and Fowler would understand that. He’d know that signing and playing with the habs means he can’t play for Laval, and if he’s with the habs, he’s not getting tons of games. Heck, even with Laval, he could very well not get many games. Both teams are in playoff scenarios and he’s never played pro, I highly doubt he has the kind of attitude that’s just like “too bad, I’m signing and playing a ton”.
As for his ELC, who cares if he burns a year. Most top tier NCAA prospects do. It’s kind of expected. But even if it were rare, you just said “goalies take so much longer to develop”, which would mean he wouldn’t be a star right away, and means we likely wouldn’t be paying him top dollar on his next contract. If you’re worried about him reaching UFA status earlier because he might leave, I just don’t think that’s a concern. We haven’t had any young kids refuse to sign long term with this management and if he’s the starter on a contender (which we hope is the case by the time he’d be UFA) why would he leave? Our cap space looks like it’s being handled very well so I doubt money will be an issue, even if Demidov and Hutson do take large chunks.
If burning his first year is what he wants, do it. It’s super common and would make a valuable part of our future happy.
It’ll come down to whether he wants a shot at several pro games this year, or that first year burned. Cuz the former will likely only happen in Laval (but may not at all with both Primeau and Dobes there). I can’t see him getting multiple Habs games with the wild card race so tight and it’s highly unlikely he’d play in the playoffs…. It’s true he could be unreal right away, but the far more likely outcome is he’s at LEAST a year’s worth of AHL games away from being a full time nhl guy.
I didn’t think Hughes would take the “tough titties” approach, I said that he’d use his silver tongue to convince Fowler to do whatever the team wants most. I don’t see Fowler being a dick about anything at all. I just disagreed with the statement in the article that he has all the leverage. I believe that the team has all the leverage. Fowler is going to go wherever Hughes wants him to go is my opinion.
I would welcome the opportunity to watch Fowler debut this season. My assessment is that Dobes has been significantly better than Primeau and I think Dobes has played at least 3 games better than Primeau’s best game while playing far fewer games. I find lots of the critism unfounded, but there has been regression since the first 5 games.
Personally, I question the adages like goalies take longer, defenseman take longer, you can’t win with 2 small defenseman. Let players dictate their own assessment and let’s not bundle them as a group. Lane Hutson should be several years away from his debut because he’s a defenseman, and take longer, and he’s the smallest guy in the league and will need several years in the minors getting used to the speed, size and strength of pro players. Obviously we know that is ridiculous but he was drafted late round2 but is the best player in that draft class currently.
Give Fowler tge opportunity and assess strengths and weaknesses to determine a development plan. I welcome upgrades at any position.who knows, maybe he does a Ken Dryden and carries the team…
I expect him to sign and not make many demands. Going to an exciting young team where there is the potential to earn a roster spot near term is uncommon for goalies. It’s not like he was a top 10 pick with a “guaranteed” long and successful nhl career ahead. He was the fifth goalie selected in the 2023 draft and while this looks to have been a huge win at 69 overall, I hope he recognizes that nothing will be given and he will earn what he gets. I look forward to seeing him play and hope he lives up to the reputation he has earned the past 2 years. Can you imagine the impact an elite goalie would have on the team??!!
Those aren’t just adages, they’re facts based on averages, but you seem to think they should apply in all cases to be relevant, which is fallacious. Obviously they don’t, but they are true in general. There’s a reason the average age of the Norris trophy winner is greater than the average age of the art ross, or rocket, or hart to a forward. Cuz Dmen GENERALLY take longer to fully develop. You can also look at how many teenage and early 20 Dmen and goalies are in the league every year vs how many forwards of the same age. This will again show that forwards, on average, develop into nhl-level players earlier than those other positions. You can look at statistical peaks, TOI relative to position averages, games played etc etc. they all say the same thing: Dmen and goalies ON AVERAGE take longer to develop. Just because some Dmen like Hutson look great in their early 20s doesn’t mean it’s the norm. In fact, it should be very clear just how rare his performance has been.
As for the “two small defencemen” thing, I have to double check it, but I saw something today that said the most recent cup winner with a prominent Dman under 6 feet tall was Washington with Orlov….and that’s ONE, not TWO. Florida had 6 Dmen who were 6+ ft. Vegas, Colorado, and Tampa all had 6 as well. St. Louis had 7. It’s not that you CANT win with small Dmen, it’s that recent evidence shows that cup winners have larger D groups. When we went to the final, our top 4 was Weber, Edmundson, Chiarot, Petry… that’s a big top 4. Do you have any examples of recent cup winners with multiple small Dmen? If you do, obviously I’ll correct what I’ve said here. But I can’t think of any right now…
The people who are saying these things about development times and small Dmen generally aren’t like “this 100% applies to everyone”. They’re just pointing out that that’s the clear established trend. Obviously if someone breaks the mold, fine. But it’s also about managing expectations. Just cuz Fowler dominated college doesn’t mean he’ll be a good pro at all, let alone good right away. So pointing out how “goalies take longer” can often be a way of saying “well it’s really not a bad thing if he doesn’t shine for the Habs immediately” while also just describing the factual trend.
Further to your point, defensemen scoring at the rate of Hutson are extremely rare. He in a once every decade plus category. If I recall properly, Carey Price started really well and then underperformed. In fact, there was tremendous debate as to whether the Habs should have kept him or Halak. Price, a generational talent, did not reach his potential until 25ish. Goalies are a separate species in the hockey ecosystem.
Perhaps you’re right about average age, TOI etc by position but you never backed the “facts” up with stats, just generalities. I challenged long held status quo adages but you did little to satisfy my questioning.
So let’s look at the rocket versus Norris winners as you suggested as conclusive evidence supporting your position.
Last dozen Richard winners averaged 28 years old as did the last 12 Norris winners. Exactly the same. 336 aggregate years divided by 12. So the evidence you thought was proof is incorrect. That’s what I’m talking about- are they facts or myths or are they similar. I probably should have qualified my statement by suggesting top 2 rounds of the nhl drafts which produces a significant majority of the best players. I think the average age of tge Vezina trophy winners is even younger despite including Fleury and 36 and renne at 35.
Would 6 Cale makars on a team be the best d core in the nhl? 100% certainty.
Only 1 of the past 6 Norris trophy winners is over 6’- josi is 6’1 201 pounds which is still under league average of 6’2, 203 pounds. So I believe having a blue line with the past 6 Norris trophy winners would likely be the best blue line in the history of the nhl but they are all small by standards. That’s why I challenge the status quo on adages. These small defenseman I think from memory all came into the league without playing minor pro. So maybe the mold isn’t really what you think it is or at least needs to be updated? Your point about recent cup winners not having multiple small dmen is valid but I never claimed otherwise- would Quinn and makar together enhance the Avs or Canucks chances of winning a Cup- I say yes with conviction.
I just looked at 2022 draft. All 9 dmen taken in round 1 have played in the nhl. 15 of the 23 forwards have and 8 have not. That’s a very small sample but maybe there is a story there?
Hope this adds perspective for you. I never made any hard claims, I challenged adages( somewhat hyperbolically with Hutson) but you defended them so I provided some statistical evidence. Nothing conclusive, maybe some things that make you go hmmm.?
My main point was I’d like to see Fowler this year.
Cuz I’m not your databank. And I did point out the Norris age thing (roughly 28 since you apparently lack internet even though you’re posting here)…
Seriously, instead of just complaining and being wrong, then when you’re told you’re wrong, continuing to complain that the person didn’t type down every single relevant stat…. How about just looking it up.
If I say “the sun exists” do you need me to send you a picture?
These are all facts. Look them up, don’t look them up, idc. But you’re wrong and will continue to be wrong if you keep acting like they aren’t facts.
I’ll also point out that it’s funny you limit your search results, you don’t include the art Ross, you conveniently use “over six feet” so you don’t have to include Makar who is listed as 6ft, and you pivot to the height of Norris trophy winners instead of average height of defenders who won the cup even though the thing you were questioning was wether or not a TEAM could win with small Dmen…. So anything to grasp at straws I guess. Cool
So if we extend to Jarome Iginlas win in 01/02 the average age is a bit over 25 for the rocket. In the last 5 years, with a joint win in the furthest year back, average age is 26. These numbers, and yours, are also skewed by the fact Alex freaking ovechkin is playing. So we have a single player who is an outlier winning the award in his 30s. Not a single other player has won the award in their 30s since at least 98/99. Remove that one player who is an obvious outlier (a fairly standard practice in many, but not all, statistical analyses) and the average age falls even further as he only has 3 wins at an age younger than 28. He has 9 total.
In that same timeframe, EIGHT different Dmen have won the Norris at 30 or later. It’s quite common. And no, that’s not 8 total wins. It’s 8 different players for fourteen total wins, one of those wins the player, Lidstrom, was 40.
6 different goalies who won the vezina were 30 or older in the same timeframe, for 11 total wins.
As for the hart, only 5 players have won the award at age 28 or later in the same timeframe as above. In 25 years. Only 1 was over 30.
If you want the numbers for all time, but don’t want to research (obv that’s too hard for you) THW put out an article last year with average ages:
Vezina: 28.9
Norris: 28.3
Hart (all positions): 27
Rocket: 26.5
Art Ross: 26
You can twist the numbers all you want to make your ignorance sound like patient reasoning and benign questions, but when the data is literally at your fingertips, it really is just ignorance. These are facts, as I said. They aren’t empty adages. You seem like someone who constantly thinks they know more than others, so I get this might be difficult for you. But as another poster put it, tough titties. People say these things for a reason. Forwards who win major awards for forwards are, more often than not, are younger than those in other positions.
Oh… and the stats I gave about 6ft Dmen on cup winning teams is also true. But you can keep twisting that argument as well if you really need to
Oh and one more thing, your point about 6 Makar’s is ridiculous and irrelevant. You can’t just pretend like he’s not 6 ft to sidestep the point, then pretend like there’s no salary cap so you could afford 6 of the best Dmen in the world, then pretend like you’d be able to acquire 6 of them through the draft or trade, then pretend like 6 players of that caliber would all accept less ice time as they have to share it which would mean fewer points and worse contracts without demanding a trade…. It’s literally not possible to have 6 of him. Even if he’s 5 ft 0 your point would make no sense whatsoever cuz you can’t just magically obtain 6 of the greatest Dmen in the league and pretend like that means you can win with 6 tiny Dmen. So maybe stick to reality if you want to have these discussions. Your hypothetical is just so extremely absurd I wonder if you’ve ever formed a logical argument in your life.
Now, after my several replies, you can cram that arrogant, condescending “hope this adds perspective for you”. You’re wrong, you’ve been wrong, you’ll continue to be wrong, and you don’t have a logical thought in your brain.
Though I didn’t get the number of a woman you were flirting with, I believe it’s still apt to ask… do you like apples?
Their also is less opportunity for a goalie or Dman to impress as their is usually only 2 nhl goalie spots and 6-7 Dman spots as opposed to 12-13 forward spots.
That is true but there are similar ratios of drafted players to positions so competition by position is generally about the same. Generally about 20ish goalies taken each draft of the 225 players selected which is a similar ratio to a nhl roster.
But they are competing for the few available spots with goaltenders picked in multiple drafts.
Except that also means there’s less competition because feeder teams ALSO have fewer players in these positions…
i hope it is an April 1st joke, but I am reading this morning news about Demidov.
I hope this story is just a joke.
It is. Read the article to the end.
Its a joke
It is difficult to predict how good goalies will be. For example everyone thought that Spencer Knight would be an exceptional NHL goalie. This has not happened yet, although he is still young and thus he may become better in the future.
If he doesn’t sign, can’t another team sign him in July?
No.