Canadiens Contracts: Finding Justin Barron’s True NHL Value

It should be a relatively easy summer for Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes, with the list of notable restricted free agents seeking an extension limited to Arber Xhekaj, Jesse Ylonen, and Justin Barron.

While Xhekaj’s value to the franchise is clear as day, the same cannot be said for Barron.

Evaluating Justin Barron’s Value To The Montreal Canadiens

From an offensive standpoint, Barron has been quite the revelation.

In parts of three seasons with the Canadiens, the right-handed defenceman has produced 12 goals and 18 assists in 94 games, quite a respectable production rate when you consider he’s spent limited time on the powerplay. He has also had to deal with relatively lengthy AHL re-assignments in both 2022-23 and 2023-24.

You’d be hard-pressed to argue he’s been shown any semblance of consistency in his usage.

To be fair to both the Canadiens coaching staff and the management group, Barron’s play on the ice prior to the AHL assignments also epitomized inconsistency.

Of course, his seven goals in just 48 games this season are worth keeping in mind, but there have been long stretches in which Barron’s decision-making has been questionable, at best.

Head coach Martin St-Louis demands a lot of his defencemen, especially when it comes to driving the offence from the blue line, but there are times when he seems to lose his confidence, leading to blown coverage in the defensive zone.

Justin Barron has a lot of offensive value, but he’s having a very hard time in his own zone lately.

This goal isn’t all on him, but it’s not his greatest shift by any means.

2-0 #Chicago pic.twitter.com/bQutLb5DAQ

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) December 23, 2023

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He’s also prone to turnovers deep in his own zone when he’s attempting a breakout.

When he relies purely on his instincts, he can quickly corral the puck and generate a tape-to-tape pass that leads to high-danger scoring chances, but when he has too much time to think he complicates the process, leading to discombobulated plays.

Matthew Knies scores shorthanded. Barron got caught. pic.twitter.com/DqXa69Acsm

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) September 30, 2023

Context Is Everything

Playing in Montreal means it’s impossible to fly under the radar. What’s more, given that Barron was acquired in a trade for a team favourite (Artturi Lehkonen), he has come under intense scrutiny.

But we do have to remember that Barron is one the youngest players on one of the youngest lineups in the league.

At 22 years old, he’s a few months older than Kaiden Guhle, which means he’s younger than Jayden Struble, Arber Xhekaj, and Jordan Harris.

The unprecedented addition of several rookies to the blueline since Martin St-Louis was named head coach has led to the perception that playing in the NHL at such a young age is normal.

It is not.

At least not for most players in the history of the league.

We also have to consider Barron has responded well to his AHL assignments, returning to the NHL with a renewed sense of confidence.

He’s also a right-handed defenceman, one of the most important positions in the sport, and he fulfils a rather crucial role: that of a puck-moving defenceman.

Unfortunately, puck-moving defencemen have an uphill battle when it comes to dealing with perception.

They carry the puck much more often than their counterparts, which means they’re also bound to lose the puck more often. Many of those turnovers can lead to scoring chances due to the nature of the role, which means fans will have an easier time remembering them.

That’s called the ‘availability heuristic‘.

A puck-moving defenceman can make 12 clean breakaways in one game, most of which will be forgotten, but if they lose the puck once and it ends up leading to a goal, it will haunt them for at least a season, if not longer.

It’s up to the coaching staff to remind them that it’s a process that should lead to better results in the long run.

Robidas in teacher mode with Barron: pic.twitter.com/FpZ982IZU9

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) January 1, 2024

Justin Barron Brass Tacks

Barron is likely to be given a short-term bridge contract so the management group can continue evaluating his NHL potential, but there’s enough good in his game to suggest that he may be worth taking a gamble on.

Not a significant gamble, mind you.

A deal in the three-year range could give them enough time to work with Barron while also taking advantage of his underrated offensive impact. It would also afford the young defenceman a little stability, which would surely improve his overall confidence.

Just like most of the young defencemen in the organization, Barron needs more experience to work on his weaknesses and polish his strengths.

And though some may not consider him to be at the same level as a player like Harris, Struble, or even Xhekaj, it’s impossible to ignore that Justin Barron has already established himself as a defenceman who can make a positive impact on a nightly basis, unlike the aforementioned players.