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Montreal Canadiens

Canadiens Improve Draft Lottery Odds In Loss To Islanders

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montreal canadiens Islanders

The Montreal Canadiens hit the road Thursday to face the New York Islanders at UBS Arena. It was yet another game against a team desperately attempting to qualify for the playoffs.

But unlike the Philadelphia Flyers, who dropped a 9-3 decision to the Habs earlier in the week, the Islanders are in the midst of a rather impressive five-game winning streak.

The Islanders eventually emerged with a 3-2 win, a well-deserved result given how they controlled the majority of the game.

The loss is a good thing when evaluating the long-term situation for the Canadiens. It means they improved their Draft Lottery odds, the only thing that matters in the final games of the season. For reference, the Ottawa Senators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2 on Thursday.

Alright, let’s dive into the highlights!

Defensive Prowess

Defenceman Jordan Harris opened the scoring for the Canadiens with a point shot that fooled Semyon Varlamov. It’s a recurring theme this season: the defencemen have done more than their fair share when it comes to generating offence. As for Harris, he’s not the flashiest player in the lineup, but he does a better job helping his team win than most of his teammates.

However, we should also note that Juraj Slafkovsky was a key part of the play even if he did not register his name on the scoresheet.

We’re seeing Slafkovsky use his massive size advantage more often down the stretch, which will surely put a smile on both Martin St-Louis and Kent Hughes’ faces.

Slafkovsky is not the strongest player in the league, but he can certainly overpower the vast majority of his opponents to create chaos in the crease, not to mention make life difficult on opposing goaltenders.

Pierre Engval proceeded to put the Islanders on the board early in the second period, which meant it was time to settle a score.

If you remember, Habs forward Brendan Gallagher was suspended for five games earlier in the season when he made the poor decision to target Adam Pelech’s head with his elbow.

It was a well-deserved suspension, as evidenced by the fact that no Canadiens fans bothered to defend it. That’s how you know it was egregious, as fans will typically defend any type of play made by their favourite players. A player could bring a chainsaw onto the ice to start cutting off limbs, and you’d find at least half a dozen fans on social media that justify the chainsaw action with some top-notch mental gymnastics.

Islanders forward Jean-Pierre Pageau decided the five-game suspension was not sufficient, which led to a fight that involved very few, if any punches landing. Hopefully, we can now consider this matter to be concluded.

 

Hockey Logic

Michael Pezzetta is known to make the most of his few shifts. That usually includes hitting anyone in sight. On Thursday he caught Pelech with a heavy hit that resulted in a two-minute minor penalty for boarding.

But it was the Islanders’ response that left me scratching my head. I get it, you’re upset one of your key defencemen got hit during a questionable play, but there’s very little logic involved in pilling half a ton of hockey players on top of your injured player.

Anders Lee had the right intentions, he wanted to defend his teammate.  But his reaction simply led to a very risky situation for his teammate.

Give And Go

The Islanders controlled the flow of the game, but it was the Habs that ended up taking a 2-1 lead in the third period.

Montreal Canadiens sniper Cole Caufield scored his 25th goal of the year, which is fairly impressive when you consider he’s going through some of the worst shooting luck possible.

If 25 goals is considered a bad season, I can’t wait to see a good one.

Once again, it wasn’t a clean shot that found the back of the net. Caufield has done a good job changing things up since his shooting efficiency collapsed.

The lead lasted less than three minutes, as Casey Cizikas scored his ninth goal of the season during a rather chaotic play in the Canadiens’ end.

Johnathan Kovacevic was trying to clear the crease, but his battle with an Islanders forward led to a situation that interfered with Samuel Montembeault’s ability to reset. Jayden Struble was tasked with covering Cizikas, but couldn’t maintain a tight gap between the two players.

But before we blame any particular players, we should note that the Islanders held a 20-4 advantage in high-danger chances at that point of the game.

They were the better team on Thursday. Full stop.

The Montreal Canadiens will be back in action on Saturday when they face the Senators in Ottawa. It may end up being the most important game of the year, at least from a draft lottery perspective. The puck drop is scheduled for 7 pm ET.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted. Via Natural Stat Trick.

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Tyrone

Thank god Ottawa won tonight. We HAVE to finish below them in the standings to ensure the best odds possible to draft ahead of them this summer (however minimal the improved chances may be). Can you imagine that a player we covet drops and he ends up getting selected by Ottawa instead? The Sens and Sabres are going to be our biggest rivals in the next decade in all likelihood. The last thing we need is one of them adding yet another star prospect to their pipeline, especially one that we wanted on our team.

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morrisk

You are forgetting one very important word…

Lottery.

in the end, it may not matter where either of these two teams finish. There is a 50-50 shot one of these teams moves up or down in the order based on the lottery. So you may be fishing in a wishing well.

However, to indulge you, if the Habs lose to OTT in regulation, then OTT has a 3-pt lead over the Habs, and the Habs hold the tie-breaker due to lower ROW…so effectively a 4 pt lead. With just 2 games left after this game, its virtually a done deal. So a Habs loss in regulation means they very likely won’t finish any worse than #6 in the pre-lottery order.

Last edited 17 days ago by morrisk
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Tyrone

I’m very aware of the lottery. That’s why I specifically worded my comment as “best possible odds” and “however minimal”. It’s already a disaster for us that Ottawa had such a bad season, and will be getting another top player to add to the crop they already have. It would be made even worse if they finish behind us and end up taking the guy that we want most. It’s similar to last year when it was obvious that HuGo really wanted Will Smith, and San Jose took him right before us. It’ll be made worse this year if it’s done by a team we’ll need to get through to get to the playoffs and out of our division every season if Ottawa lands the guy we want. It also wouldn’t shock me if the Senators (and their new owner Michael Andlauer) trade up to steal the show and add a little gamesmanship to the proceedings, just to stick it to us. I’m not opposed to using the arsenal in our pipeline, D core, and draft pick bank to beat them to the punch either. We have a very limited amount of spots available in the top 6, so why not add the very best possible player to it?

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Me2

Not just this year’s selection in the 1st round. I think most Montreal fans are expecting Gorton to make moves at the draft, to pilfer players from other teams that those teams can no longer afford, like say Necas from Car.

For me, too much isolation on just the draft, we are not considering the bigger picture.

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Tyrone

What I was implying is that we use our 1st + assets to move up ourselves, to ensure we take the best possible player, and block Ottawa from doing it to us.

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Me2

That’s fine, but if Montreal is going to add the necessary scoring to win more games and make a playoff push, they are going to have to get those players through trades, which means they might be moving draft picks the other way.

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Tyrone

Which is what I mentioned. Players, prospects and/or picks. Whatever combo brings us back the best possible offensive player(s).

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Dana

Marc, in what world is Gally vs Pageau a heavyweight battle?

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Me2

The Habs are now sitting 6th worst record in the NHL. They are tied with Arizona, soon to be Utah, with 73 pts, but Canadiens own the tiebreaker having fewer regulation wins.

Montreal had the 5th-worst record last season so I guess you could say they’ve improved on last year’s record when compared to the rest of the NHL.

Funny how when the team loses the writers on these blogs put it right in the title how the loss is actually a good thing since it improves their draft position.

But when Montreal wins, as they did against Philly the other night, the fact that the Habs worsened their draft position is not in the title of the article.

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John Smith

Good morning sunshine. Now go troll on the other Hab websites. Sheesh. Marc found a ray of hope here and you dissed him. You do realize that this is a free website. You don’t pay a fee. The writers here provide us fans with information and quality insights that helps us pass the time. Stop being a buzz kill. Your commentary has to be very demotivating to these writers. We get that you are unhappy with the way things are. Is it even remotely possible to provide some silver lining in your commentary. You should take up a new hobby and let us fans cheer for our team. Allow us to look at these dark days of the rebuild as opportunities for hope. You remind me of someone who would diss your lawn for not being green yet.

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John Smith

Going forward, I will be keeping my comments to myself concerning Me2. He/she just doesn’t get it. Must have missed out on polite discourse in finishing school.

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Dana

And your comments are better how John? You do the same thing to Me2 that appears to bother you about what Me2 does to the writer.
I believe we are free to express our opinions. You either don’t believe in freedom or only when it aligns with your perspective, which isn’t freedom. Or maybe it’s only permissible to disagree when you pay to express your opinion? I’ve listened to and read all the experts the past 4 years and the intense pressure to make people comply no matter what- no freedom of choice and no freedom of speech. It’s the last thing we should face on this type of forum John so please stop the personal attacks and deal with the issue that you disagree with.

To me, Me2 makes a valid point about team position but I’d counter by saying we have a higher winning percentage, more points, a better goal differential and improved metrics in many other significant ways. We’ve also been competitive more often than last year as indicated by the one goal games so yes we are in a similar standing but we’ve been better. Regarding a stories angle, the writer is free to write. If someone doesn’t like it, they can either say so ( like Me2did) or stop reading the writers articles or be silent as you stated you will do going forward in your last post.

And to your point about dark days, I disagree as I see this as the most exciting time in decades for the franchise. We are building something significant, we have a good young core, high end prospects and a lot of draft capital and a very favourable cap situation plus excellent management. In hockey, they say go where the puck will be and not where it us- apply that your evaluation of the Habs. Next year, we will compete for a playoff position, 25/26 we are definitely a playoff team and each subsequent year, we will be a legitimate contender with a significant competitive window. Timeline will vary a bit depending on the moves management makes but based on their track record, that’s my projection.

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Me2

Players drafted this summer won’t be cracking the lineup for a few seasons.

For the Habs to be better next season, they have to add scoring, best way to do that is pick up players from other teams that can’t afford them any more due to cap issues on their part.

Montreal has the prospects and draft capital to make those deals. That’s where my attention is, and I think that’s where the writers here should also be focused. Not on whether or not Montreal picks 5th, 6th, or 7th.

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Dana

Agree, celebrini will play nhl next season and perhaps another forward or two depending, but I am looking at natural progression of young guys, a healthy Dach and a full season of Roy plus I think Beck could make the team. Add a settled goaltending situation ( relative to this year) and any moves Hughes makes that helps the nhl roster next year as those ingredients will make the team playoff competitive. If we roster the first rounder this year, great but I’m not accounting for that.

We will have the opportunity to select a high end offensive forward to add to the top 6 at some point with a pick no later than 8 at which point it gets riskier. I can see several clubs drafting in front of us favouring a defenseman based on their current rosters and prospect pools.

I personally like articles that project our picks, intel on our prospects or provide insights into the potential trade market rumours that align with the goals.

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Me2

I re-read my comment. Don’t think there’s anything untoward in it, just pointing out an inconsistency in the coverage.

I get the writers here prefer to present the positive, so that in this case when the Habs lose the idea that losing betters where they pick gets top billing.

I hope Montreal wins every game, where they draft is not what I think is important, it’s improving the roster for next season by making trades for what they miss, which is scoring.

Guys drafted this year are not making the club next season, probably not the season after. They’re for re-stocking the shelves for down the road.

Good night, suite prints.

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Me2

I think there’s too much focus on where the Canadiens pick. (The draft order can change once the lottery is carried out once the season ends. No team is absolutely guaranteed to pick in the spot assigned to it according to the standings. Teams can move up or down in the draft order).

Agree that drafting first overall is better than drafting 6th, but I’m not sure that drafting 5th over 6th merits the same attention.

Plus, isolating where a team picks to the exclusion of everything else isn’t right. Canadiens, like some other teams, have a lot of picks. Not only that, most of us think that Gorton is going to be making moves to acquire players from other teams, like say Nick Robertson of the Leafs, who are coming out of their ELC. They are getting raises and their current team might not be able to afford them anymore and would consider moving them in exchange for draft capital.

So, it’s not just where you picks. It’s how many picks you have, how many prospects you have and working out deals with other clubs to pick up what you need from them.

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