Canadiens Analysis
Canadiens Tank Watch: Draft Lottery Odds Becoming Clearer
There are only a handful of games left in the regular season, which means it’s once again time to take a look at the situation of the teams who are competing with the Montreal Canadiens in a race to the bottom of the standings.
The goal is to secure the rights to one of the many interesting prospects available at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft.
Current Situation
The last time we checked in on the competition, the Canadiens were sitting in 27th in the NHL standings. This time around, Montreal has managed to drop one additional spot, as they are currently sitting in 28th.
If the Canadiens were to maintain their position until the end of the season, they would have the following odds at the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery:
1st overall pick- 8.5 percent
2nd overall pick- 8.6 percent
3rd overall pick- 0.3 percent
4th overall pick- N/A
5th overall pick- 24.5 percent
6th overall pick- 44 percent
7th overall pick- 14.2 percent
There are very low odds the Habs will catch the Columbus Blue Jackets for the 29th overall. The Habs are six points up on them and they also have a game in hand, but there’s still a risk both the Ottawa Senators and Arizona Coyotes can finish below Montreal.
All three teams have five games left to play, however, given their recent form of three losses in a row, the Canadiens seem to be well on their way to solidifying their hold on the 28th overall place in the NHL standings.
Strength Of Schedule(s)
29th Place – Columbus Blue Jackets – Strength of schedule: 1st.
Remaining opponents: Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Nashville Predators.
28th Place – Montreal Canadiens – Strength of schedule: 23rd.
Remaining opponents: Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, Detroit Red Wings (x2), New York Islanders.
27th Place – Arizona Coyotes – Strength of schedule: 8th.
Remaining opponents: Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers (x2), Calgary Flames, Seattle Kraken.
26th Place – Ottawa Senators – Strength of schedule: 3rd.
Remaining opponents: New York Rangers, Boston Bruins, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Montreal Canadiens.
As you can see, the Canadiens no longer have one of the most difficult remaining schedules. To make matters even more interesting, the Blue Jackets, Coyotes, and Senators all have significantly tougher schedules.
While the Habs will face teams like the Flyers and the Senators, their competition has schedules filled with opponents such as the Edmonton Oilers, The New York Rangers, and the Boston Bruins.
Simply put, the strength of schedule has been Montreal’s greatest ally down the stretch, but due to the low number of games remaining, it is no longer a favourable situation.
Recent Form
To get a better idea of how the teams have performed recently, we’ll take a look at their record in the last 10 games, as well as their shot control (CF%), high-danger scoring chances (HDCF%), expected goals (xGF%), shooting percentage (SH%) and team save percentage (SV%).
The Blue Jackets are in a terrible league of their own, however, they have also received the best goaltending in the group over the last 10 games.
As for the Habs, they’re not quite at the Blue Jacket’s level of despair, but their underlying numbers are nothing to write home about, which is a positive in this particular case. This means Coyotes and Senators have controlled more shots, high-danger scoring chances, and expected goals.
Brass Tacks
At this point in the season, recent form takes on a lot more value than the scheduled opponents. As we all know, any team can beat any opponent in the NHL, regardless of where they are in the standings. Goaltending and shooting efficiency can go a long way in beating the odds.
And while the Coyotes and Senators have easier schedules, that’s no longer necessarily a good thing.
Teams that are preparing for a playoff run will end up resting some of their best players, and they will also try to avoid injuries, which should lead to a less intense brand of hockey. On the flip side, many of the Canadiens’ opponents are still attempting to qualify for the playoffs, which means there are good odds they will ice their best lineup.
With that in mind, we can start to prepare for the draft range options once the NHL’s Draft Lottery, which is expected to take place around May 6th or 7th.
The Canadiens are likely to end up with a draft pick somewhere between five and seventh overall while having an outside chance to pick in the top three.
All 2024 NHL strength of schedule information via Tankathon. The numbers in the article are accurate as of April 8, at 1 pm ET. All statistics are via Natural Stat Trick (5v5 only).
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Habs Daily: Playoff Team Lessons, Questions Heading Into Draft
Lessons The Montreal Canadiens Can Learn From Playoff Teams
Biggest Questions for Canadiens Headed Into 2024 NHL Draft
Habs Daily: Berkly Catton Interview, Slafkovsky WC Start Delayed
Canadiens Checklist – State Of The Rebuild: Defensive Prospects
Canadiens State Of the Rebuild – Current NHL Talent – Forwards
Montreal Canadiens Prospects Set To Join New Teams
Habs Daily: Defensive Prospects Give Options, Draft Lottery Set
I would say the SOS means almost nothing at this point. Very recently, Habs beat AVs and FL, OTT beat EDM and Winny, and Ariz crushed Nashville and Vegas. Anyone can and will beat anyone, even down the stretch, as playoff teams play non-playoff teams.
It will come down to the last game of season to determine the 5, 6, and 7 positions.
I know there are a few sexy Dmen who could go in the top 10 of 1st rd. However, this year, Habs need to take a forward. Unless a big trade is forthcoming, or a big UFA signing, to bring in a top forward. In the absence of such a big move, Habs should get one of either Demidov, Lindstrom, Eiserman, Catton, or Iginla. All 5 will likely be picked in the top 10. Maklin goes #1, so even if every single one of those 5 get picked in a row (which won’t happen), Habs guaranteed to get one of them at pick #6. Of course, the lottery will determine the actual pick spot…
I hope they do a Habs draft special afterwards so we can see the inner workings of the management discussions and the scouts etc and how they think and ranked the prospects.
Is a big gifted Center iceman valued more than the pure sniper or puck magician or a combo guy? I have my preferences but I’m not privy to who they are favouring in trade targets or free agency as it would alter the drafting priorities.
I’ve been also looking at late first round options should they keep and use the pick. Like many others here have indicated through comments, I’d like to see them leverage that pick ( and possibly another like the lesser of out 2 first rounders in ‘25 ) with a prospect or two and or a lower roster player to get impactful top 6 help.
I’ll throw one out there. Matt Boldy and third rounder 2026 for our 2nd first rounder this year and second first round pick next and Kovacevic or Harris plus Farrell or Kidney?
I’m just going on NEED first. Unless they miraculously win the lottery and can pick Maklin (who I doubt they would pass up), the need is for a top 6 winger who can score. Already have Nick and Dach. Already have a talent-laden D prospect pool.
Anything can happen with that late 1st rd pick, so I won’t bother speculating. I care more about that top pick as of now.
Giving up too much imo.
You’re likely right but two late first rounders a solid depth defender and a mid level prospect for a 23 year old guy, former 12 overall who has a similar stat line to Suzuki and has size. good speed and a good shot- nice skill set. I’ll give up quantity for quality at this point but it has all the makings of a win/win. Don’t think guerin is a likely trade partner
How does Montreal have any chance at the #3 pick? A quick sanity check shows that there are bugs in Tankathon’s algorithms. Montreal has no chance of having less points than San Jose, Chicago or Anaheim. Meanwhile there’s a small chance that Columbus might pass them in the standings so that Montreal can pick #4.
The #3 pick is actually the only one Montreal CAN’T get. There are scenarios right now that can get them every pick from 1-10 except the 3rd pick.
Incorrect.
At the moment they have a 0.2 percent chance to get the third overall pick.
They CANNOT draft 4th or 5th (if they keep their current spot in the standings).
Source: https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds
Yes Tankathon shows that Montreal has a small chance at the 3rd overall pick, but having a web site doesn’t make it correct. Please explain Tankathon’s odds if you believe it is correct or indicate where I’ve made a mistake.
Montreal is currently in 28th place in the league standings giving them the 5th best odds for the lottery. The 4 teams below them in the standings can not pass them in the standings, e.g. 29th place Columbus is 8 points back with only 3 games left. At a high level, Montreal’s odds are very simple. If they win one of the two lottery draws they get to first or second pick overall. Otherwise the best they can do is draft 5th overall, with absolutely no possibility of drafting 3rd or 4th.