Canadiens Tank Watch: Situation Improved Ahead Of Draft Lottery

Welcome back to another edition of the Montreal Canadiens 2023-24 NHL Draft Lottery tank watch.

Things have changed since the last time we checked in, and that’s fantastic news for fans hoping the organization will add an impact player to the mix at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft.

The Habs are now sitting in 27th overall in the NHL.

Current Situation

In the last Tank Watch, we noted the Arizona Coyotes and the Ottawa Senators were two teams the Canadiens could beat in the race to the bottom of the standings.

At the time, the Habs had 60 points, whereas the Senators and Coyotes had 56 and 57 points, respectively.

Fast forward to 10 days later, and things are looking much better for Kent Hughes’ team. The Canadiens are now tied with the Senators and are just one point ahead of the Coyotes. Montreal also has fewer regulation and overtime wins (ROW) than Ottawa, which means the Senators will finish ahead of them if both teams finish the season with the same number of points.

As for the rest of the teams in the mix, the San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, and Anaheim Ducks aren’t realistic targets anymore, but the Canadiens can set their sights on the Blue Jackets.

Montreal has a six-point advantage over the Blue Jackets, who have one game in hand, which means it will be a difficult proposal, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Strength Of Schedule(s)

The Habs no longer own the most difficult strength of schedule in the NHL. That honour belongs to the Boston Bruins, believe it or not. Boston will face the Florida Panthers and the Carolina Hurricanes twice down the stretch.

On that note, the difference in between the strength of schedules for both the Habs and the Bruins is negligible. It’s closer to a 1A and 1B situation, and it doesn’t have much of an impact on the Canadiens’ draft hopes.

However, the Blue Jackets went from having the 12th to the fourth most difficult strength of schedule, which is not great news for the Canadiens’ chances of finishing in 29th.

The good news is that the two teams that are more realistic targets, Ottawa and Arizona, have a much lower strength of schedule compared to the last time we took a look at the remaining 2023-24 calendar.

29th Place – Columbus Blue Jackets – Strength of schedule: 4th

28th Place – Arizona Coyotes – Strength of schedule: 13th

27th Place – Montreal Canadiens – Strength of schedule: 2nd

26th Place – Ottawa Senators – Strength of schedule: 11th

Recent Form

To get a better idea of how the teams have performed recently, we’ll take a look at their record in the last 10 games, as well as their shot control (CF%), high-danger scoring chances (HDCF%), expected goals (xGF%), shooting percentage (SH%) and team save percentage (SV%).

After a very strong push in January and February, the Canadiens’ results have taken a dip in recent weeks.

Their shot share is well below the league average, as is their expected goals percentage. Unfortunately, the same can be said about the Senators and Coyotes. The Habs have also enjoyed a better shooting efficiency in the last 10 games than their competition in the race to the bottom of the standings.

On the flip side, their goaltending has taken a big step back, which means the Canadiens are stealing fewer points than they did in the first half of the season.

Simply put, all four teams have played rather poorly in the last 10 games, with the Senators emerging as the best of the worst.

Brass Tacks

With just 12 games left to play in the season, the Draft Lottery ‘race’ has become very interesting.

It will take a little luck and some help from the Coyotes, but there’s a very real possibility the Montreal Canadiens can finish 28th overall.

But even if the team does finish below the Coyotes, it won’t have much of an impact when it comes to their top-3 Draft Lottery odds.

It would improve their odds of drafting either fifth or sixth overall, which would mean they’d have an opportunity to put their hands on one of the top players at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, including some very interesting options when it comes to available forward prospects.

All 2024 NHL strength of schedule information via Tankathon. The numbers in the article are accurate as of March 25 at 5 pm ET. All statistics are via Natural Stat Trick (5v5 only).