What I Got Wrong About The Montreal Canadiens: Arber Xhekaj

For the most part, I use publicly available data when analyzing the Montreal Canadiens, while also keeping a close eye on the footage, in an attempt to get a complete picture.

After all, hockey analysis is all about nuance.

But there’s no denying that several of my predictions and projections fell short, an inevitable symptom of working in the industry.

In this series, we will take a look at some of my worst predictions throughout the year for two reasons.

First, there’s absolutely no shame in admitting you’re wrong. But more importantly, it’s always good to take a look back at why certain predictions were made, as to establish why we came to that conclusion, and how we can avoid making mistakes in the future.

Arber Xhekaj – More Than a Fighter

I’ll admit, I probably didn’t give Arber Xhekaj a chance from the moment he joined the organization. I was confused as to why former general manager Marc Bergevin invited him to training camp in 2021, and I rolled my eyes when he offered him a contract shortly thereafter.

After all, Xhekaj’s production with the Kitchener Rangers was mediocre, at best.

But there was also a bias at play.

If a player is mostly known for fighting, he is unlikely to bring anything (of value) to the table in the NHL. I still maintain that in most cases, it’s true, but because of my bias, I essentially wrote off Xhekaj’s NHL potential from the very get-go.

As one NHL agent told me when I explained why I wrote Xhekaj off, “You couldn’t have gotten that more wrong if you tried.”

But even with a very solid 2021-22 OHL season in the books, I was still was not very bullish about his NHL chances. The Montreal Canadiens had way too many defensive prospects vying for a job, and there was no way Xhekaj was going to leapfrog Kaiden Guhle or Jordan Harris.

Fortunately, I didn’t bang the negativity drum very loudly on social media, as it started to become apparent that Xhekaj was going to turn into a fan favourite and I was working for the Canadiens at the time. A poorly filmed, three-second video with bad audio at development camp drummed up well over 100,000 impressions in short order, owing to Xhekaj’s outgoing and affable personality.

By the time the 2022 Rookie Tournament in Buffalo came around, the hard-hitting defenceman had become one of the most popular young players on the team, which meant it was time for an updated teaser video for the throngs of rabid fans demanding more Xhekaj-based content.

For the record, it was Xhekaj’s idea to address fans in French, a nice touch from a young man that would soon make history.

Guess who? pic.twitter.com/fVXwzgpCxp

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) September 17, 2022

Never Been Done

Xhekaj announced his arrival on the scene with a vicious knockout of Ottawa Senators prospect Zachary Massicotte, the culmination of many plays in which the rough-and-tumble blueliner drove the entire Senators team up a wall.

But in between those plays, Xhekaj looked good.

He was driving the play when necessary, shutting down the rush with ease, and overpowering all his opponents while maintaining solid defensive positioning.

I wasn’t sold, yet, but I was starting to think that Xhekaj may be the first defenceman in NHL history to be ignored at the draft multiple times and then jump directly into a team’s starting lineup.

By the time the main training camp rolled around, not only was Xhekaj being considered for the NHL roster, but at times, he seemed like one of the most likely options to earn a job with the Canadiens.

Maybe just maybe they could try Arber Xhekaj on PP1 pic.twitter.com/46kaWvcX2K

— /r/Habs (@HabsOnReddit) December 30, 2022

He’d go on to enjoy a very solid season, all things considered, the type of season that you would never expect from a player of his ilk, especially if you tend to have a bias against bigger, physical players.

This, in retrospect, is exactly what happened when I evaluated his long-term potential with the Montreal Canadiens and it’s something I’ll have to keep in mind as the team continues to navigate the choppy waters of a rebuild.

Arber Xhekaj, if you’re reading this, I owe you my apologies, I got this one wrong.

So very wrong.