Potential Canadiens Draft Pick Matvei Michkov Can’t Be Ignored

The Montreal Canadiens will have an opportunity to add a game-changing presence to their lineup at the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.

Beyond Connor Bedard, the top five players available in the Draft all present good options for a team like the Habs that lacks elite talent in the prospect pipeline.

However, there is one prospect who may be available that carries a much higher upside than the rest: Matvei Michkov.

Video Room

Unless you live in Sochi or watch KHL games live, it’s rather difficult to get a good read on Michkov’s skillset due to existing copyright laws.

But thanks to a fantastic video breakdown by prospect expert David St-Louis, we finally have an opportunity to get a better appreciation of what Michkov brings to the table.

Simply put, if not for Bedard’s presence, Michkov would be considered one of the most talented prospects in recent draft history. Thanks to his high-end offensive awareness and multi-faceted approach to generating scoring plays, Michkov projects as a forward that can quickly shift the momentum of a game on a whim.

As you’ll see in St-Louis’ video breakdown, Michkov is creative, has a fantastic shot, and can read the ice much better than his counterparts.

By The Numbers

Michkov turned 18 on Dec.9, which means he spent a significant portion of the KHL season as a 17-year-old. But despite facing much bigger opponents with a wealth of experience, the flashy forward managed to impress with his production.

To make matters worse, the team he was playing for, Sochi HC, managed to win just 11 of their 68 games this season. To say they were the worst team in the league is accurate, but it’s also understating just how poorly the team performed

Despite the adversity and his lack of experience, Michkov managed to score 9 goals and 11 assists in 27 games.

In otherwords, even though he played fewer than half of their games, Michkov actively participated in almost 15 percent of Sochi’s scoring plays. Additionally, he finished the season with the second-highest points-per-game ratio by an 18-year-old in the KHL over the course of the last 10 years.

Matvei Michkov's second-half stint in the KHL was arguably the best any draft-eligible prospect has played in a top European pro league over the past 5-6 years, at least from a data perspective.

More charts are featured in David's video below. #2023NHLDraft https://t.co/Tdv0w8y6PK pic.twitter.com/LyTVnHgP0j

— Lassi Alanen (@lassialanen) May 15, 2023

Consequently, Michov’s draft profile has reached generational status. He compares well to players such as Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Connor McDavid, and Auston Matthews, among others.

No player in the model that had the generational profile like Bedard and Michkov (1990 to Present) has been anything less than a superstar producer in the NHL.

Feels weird to say but…

The floor for both is probably a point-per-game over their NHL career.

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) May 15, 2023

Risk Reward

At this point, I can hear people yelling from the top of their lungs, “What about the risk?!”

And though I’m much less concerned than most about the risk involved in drafting Michkov, it’s certainly a factor that must be considered.

Michkov signed a contract with SKA St-Petersburg, which means he will not make his way to North America for a few years. But when we take a closer look at the rest of the players available in the first round, other than Bedard and Adam Fantilli, who will not be available once the Canadiens take to the podium with the fifth overall selection, none of the players project to make an impact in the NHL within the next few seasons.

In that context, Michkov’s delayed arrival in the NHL won’t necessarily take much longer than other available prospects.

And within that time frame, he will be playing for one of the best teams in Europe, while also facing an elevated quality of competitors.

It would also guarantee that the Canadiens, who have a long history of rushing top 5 prospects, would not be tempted to toss him into the mix earlier than needed, which would mitigate some of the risk involved in Michkov’s development.

For the record, no top prospect drafted out of Russia has ever refused to come to North America. Despite the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, we can safely put that subject to bed, especially when considering Michkov has stated his dream is to play in the NHL.

And yet, that doesn’t mean picking Michkov is not a risky endeavour.

But a tremendous reward can be found within that risk, the type of reward that can propel a team like the Canadiens into Stanley Cup contention.

We often discuss risk management as a tool used to avoid risk, but risk is an inherent part of sports.

Teams that fail to see the value in breaking from the norm tend to toil in mediocrity.

In this particular case, the long-term reward seems to outweigh the risk by a significant margin.