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Canadiens Mailbag: Slafkovsky’s Usage, Draft Concerns, Michkov

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1 year ago

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Montreal Canadiens scouts

Welcome back to another edition of the Montreal Canadiens mailbag.

This week we discussed Juraj Slafkovsky’s ceiling, concerns about the Canadiens’ scouting team, Sean Monahan’s potential return, and potential UFAs.

Let’s dive right into it.

 

This is an interesting question because we’re dealing with several variables, the most important of which will be their usage.

In Slafkovsky’s case, consistency will be key.

The Canadiens must avoid constantly changing his linemates or his spot in the lineup. Frankly, playing the majority of your ice time on the fourth line is the opposite of a situation that’s conducive to thriving, and is something that should be avoided in year two.

If he starts the season in the NHL, an increase in ice time will be in order.

When Vincent Lecavalier explained he received the same amount of ice time as Slafkovsky in his rookie year, two things came to mind.

Slafkovsky finished the year with a little over 11 minutes of ice time per game, which is less than 18-year-olds Alex Galchenyuk and Jesperi Kotkaniemi received in their first year in the league.

Not to mention, Lecavalier received almost two additional minutes of ice time per game during his rookie season, which may not sound like a lot but is a significant uptick in opportunities.

Here’s the kicker.

During his second year in the league, Lecavalier’s ice time rose all the way to 19 minutes per game. His quality of teammates also rose since he was playing in the top six.

If Slafkovsky follows the same trend, he’d receive almost 18 minutes of ice time and much better linemates, which could lead to a 40 or 50-point season.

‘If’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence, and is about to do the same in the following sentence.

If the Canadiens do decide to trust Slafkovsky with important minutes, which was definitely not the case in his rookie year, he’ll have an opportunity to cement his place in the top 6.

As for the second player in question, I’m not convinced Xhekaj has a guaranteed spot on the roster next season, especially if the Canadiens sign a veteran defenceman to shore up their defence.

His underlying numbers were quite good to start the year but saw a steady decline throughout the season. I’m of the opinion that the focus on fighting was the catalyst for the decline. That’s not to say Xhekaj shouldn’t fight, but when he wasn’t busy fighting some of the toughest players in the league, he showed he can be a good secondary source of offence ancouldto drive the play through the neutral zone.

But due to the logjam on defence, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up starting the season with the Laval Rocket, and makes his way back to the Canadiens lineup once injuries inevitably occur.

 

There are legitimate concerns in Michkov’s case.

The NHL does not have a transfer agreement with the Russian Ice Hockey Federation, and given that Russia is currently attempting to invade Ukraine, there are war-related issues as well.

Some may also bring up his father’s recent demise, which is very tragic, but should never be mentioned as a reason not to draft the young man. We don’t know what happened, and frankly, it’s none of our business. All I can say in this case is that I hope Michkov is receiving the support necessary to process his loss.

But when it comes to the lack of a transfer agreement, I wouldn’t worry for a single minute.

When was the last time a Russian player drafted in the top 5 refused to come to North America?

As far as I know, it’s never happened.

Teams may have to wait a little longer for Michkov to cross the pond due to his KHL contract, but I don’t necessarily see that as a negative factor either, seeing as it would allow him to develop into an NHL-ready player while also enjoying some of the creature comforts that come with playing in your home country.

I honestly can’t see him drop below the 5th spot, because in most years, Michkov would be the No.1 overall pick. This just happens to be a stacked Draft.

When it comes to Slafkovsky, I truly think he needs to be playing in the top 6 to establish an identity in the NHL. If the Canadiens cannot guarantee stability or ice time they should not hesitate to send him to Laval.

That may seem like a step back, but playing top-line minutes in Laval would help his development much more than playing on the Canadiens’ fourth line.

As for Mesar, I still think he should probably play anywhere else but Kitchener, mostly because the team has dealt with internal strife all season, which is not a situation that’s conducive to proper development.

Depending on the roster, Laval is likely the ideal situation for Mesear.

But there has to be a caveat for both players: give them healthy ice time and as many opportunities as possible. Winning in the AHL is important, but not more important than the development of two very important prospects.

When asked about his future with the Canadiens, Monahan’s answer was purposely vague.

“It’s a special place to play,” said Monahan regarding his desire to return. “You get chills walking on the Bell Centre ice. I’ll see if I can make something work.”

Let’s be honest, that doesn’t sound like someone who is on the cusp of signing a contract.

Or perhaps, Canadiens management isn’t ready to offer him a contract.

Health is a significant issue in Monahan’s case, and if the Canadiens move on, they can already declare the Monahan situation a win, seeing as they acquired a first-round pick alongside the 28-year-old forward in the first place.

But if the Canadiens are interested in re-signing the centre, I’d suggest they’d only be looking at a one-year contract with a guarantee of decent ice time.

That would allow Monahan to prove to the rest of the league that he can stay healthy, which, in turn, could lead to a long-term contract with another team at the end of the year.

Monahan is reaching the point in his career where, realistically, he only has one money-making contract left to sign, which means the aforementioned proposal may pique his interest.

The question becomes, would Monahan want to sign another deal with little to no job security? If he gets injured, that would essentially put the kibosh on his long-term aspirations.

If a team is prepared to offer him a multi-year contract this summer I’d be surprised if he doesn’t jump at the chance to sign.

I get the sense Kyle is worried about Nick Bobrov’s Draft record, which is questionable, to say the least.

Last season we saw Bobrov convince Canadiens management that Juraj Slafkovsky was the best bet for the first overall pick during an impassioned speech that described many intangibles, as well as Slafkovsky’s scoring pace in recent tournaments.

It reeked of recency bias and flowery imagery, but it was an incredible sales job.

That’s not to say Slafkovsky was the wrong pick, time will tell in his case, but it’s clear Bobrov is a master salesman, one who tends to prefer big forwards with very raw skill sets.

And oftentimes, those big forwards end up being busts.

However, we must also remember the Canadiens drafted Mesar in the first round, as well as Lane Hutson in the second round, so there are definitely members of the scouting team that appreciate high-end talent, which should balance out the Canadiens’ draft strategy in the future.

I’ll admit, I have very little confidence in Bobrov’s preferred prospects, but I do have a lot of confidence in the group of players the Canadiens drafted last season.

Should you be worried? Perhaps a little. Bobrov isn’t the only one in the room that likes selecting big players. Both Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton have mentioned they want to build a team populated by players that have good “size”.

But it’s not worth losing any sleep over, in my opinion.

The Canadiens reached to pick Slafkovsky last season and let’s face it, it was a rather weak Draft, overall. I don’t get the sense they’ll do the same this year.

It’s too risky and to be a successful NHL franchise, you HAVE to hit on your first-round picks. Kent Hughes and Co. are well aware of this fact.

I think Hughes will attempt to sign a right-handed defenceman, one that can become a mainstay on the top pairing with Mike Matheson as the rest of the young players on the blueline develop into regular NHL players.

Someone along the lines of Damon Severson, though I heard he’d prefer to avoid playing in a market like Montreal.

I am guaranteed to get this wrong, but I see Lane Hutson, Logan Mailloux, and Adam Engstrom in the mix.

But, realistically, it will probably be closer to Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle, Mystery UFA Defenceman, and Jordan Harris/Justin Barron.

The most important development, by far, is the development of a development team.

And yes, I am well aware I used development way too often in that sentence, which is a concerning development.

But back to the development team.

The Canadiens essentially went from a team without any semblance of a plan when it came to their prospects, to a team that has put an onus on helping their young players eventually earn a roster spot in the NHL.

It was beyond overdue.

As for things they’ve gotten wrong, I’m not sure there are many nits worth picking. I appreciate that Hughes sticks to his guns in trade negotiations, though you could argue it backfired at times this season since veteran wingers were given too much ice time, and other than Evgenii Dadonov, the team did not see any return on their ice-time investment.

I’d also say they completely botched Slafkovsky’s first season in the league.  He simply was not put in a situation that was conducive to proper devel….growth.

But for the most part, they’re taking a slow and steady approach to the rebuild, which is exactly what you want to see from a team that is hoping to become a consistent Stanley Cup contender.

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