Montreal Canadiens

Canadiens Have One Option To Play With Suzuki And Caufield

Published

1 year ago

December 29, 2022

Marc Dumont

The Montreal Canadiens have a problem.

Their top line is broken.

To be more accurate, their top line is currently broken, but it doesn’t have to be.

When Martin St-Louis decided to use Joel Armia alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, the goal was to place Armia in a situation that was conducive to scoring his first goal of the season.

Not only did he fail to come remotely close to breaking his scoring drought, but the top line also produced numbers you’d expect from a hastily assembled fourth line that featured a trio of ECHL players.

While on the ice, they controlled just four of the 13 shots, two of the eight scoring chances, and none of the four high-danger scoring chances.

In other words, it was bad. It was really bad.

But it was also quite easy to anticipate.

Suzuki and Caufield have never produced fantastic numbers together unless they’re playing with a winger that has great anticipation, as well as an affinity for creating time and space in the offensive zone.

The third member of the trio must also excel in transition.

If St-Louis is intent on keeping his two best players on the same line, and there’s an argument to be made that they should be broken up, he has two legitimate options in the lineup.

And only one of those options is healthy: Kirby Dach.

Kirby Dach with the perfect feed to Cole Caufield and that's Caufield's 8th of the year! pic.twitter.com/8w0PthaLcH

— Scott Matla (@scottmatla) November 5, 2022

The numbers don’t lie, without Dach on their wing, the Suzuki-Caufield combination struggles to control high-danger chances. Their raw talent still leads to goals, but not in any manner that should be considered sustainable.

The Statistics

As evidenced in the chart below, while playing with Anderson and Armia, the top line struggled to control shots (CF%), expected goals (xGF%), and high-danger chances (HDCF%).

The results were much better when Sean Monahan was given a promotion, but not to the point where sustainability was probable.

Of course, there’s logic in using Dach as the second-line centre. It’s his natural position, and despite his paltry 35 percent efficiency in faceoffs, he immediately improves the underlying numbers of most lines he’s placed on.

But it also leads to frustratingly poor results from the team’s two best players, which is a very heavy cost to pay for a team that has earmarked Suzuki and Caufield as the foundation of their rebuild.

Without a functional power play or a suitable winger for the top line, the Canadiens are essentially neutering their best offensive talent, not to mention they’re also robbing fans of one of the few elements on the team that provide a reasonable level of excitement during games.