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Canadiens Rebuild Checklist: State Of The Rebuild – Draft Capital

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2 weeks ago

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Montreal Canadiens NHL Draft

Now that the Montreal Canadiens have completed their second complete rebuild season, it’s time to take a closer look at where the organization stands in terms of its long-term plans.

As Jeff Gorton suggested at the end-of-year press conference, this summer is shaping up to be an important phase of the rebuild.

The Habs will have a significant amount of space under the salary cap, giving them plenty of financial maneuverability to pull off a series of trades, UFA signings, or other decisions that could potentially help the team take the next step.

MUST READ: Canadiens Salary Cap Outlook For 2024-25 Provides Team With Interesting Options

This series will evaluate several categories, including current NHL talent, prospect value, draft capital, trades, coaching, contracts, and management.

We will then run a poll to determine how the fans view their various situations compared to our conclusions.

First up, the Canadiens’ draft assets.

Montreal Canadiens Draft Capital

The Canadiens have 12 picks in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, not to mention another 12 draft choices on the docket for the following year.

But we all know that quantity does not trump quality at the draft.

That’s why it’s important to note the Habs have four first-round picks in the aforementioned drafts, a rather impressive amount of quality for a team that has already included several of their young, talented players in the NHL lineup.

Beyond the first-round picks, the Canadiens also own three second-round and five third-round picks in the upcoming drafts.

The odds of drafting a quality player beyond the first round will go down significantly. Even within the first round, a 28th overall pick will carry much less value than a top-10 pick, but we also have to remember that the Canadiens have recently added many talented players to their prospect pool by drafting well in the second and third rounds, including prospects such as Jacob Fowler, Lane Hutson, Owen Beck, Vinzenz Rohrer, and Adam Engstrom.

If the team does not feel like the picks will yield a quality prospect, they can also use them to acquire NHL-ready talent, as they did in the trades that landed both Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook.

Given the overabundance of picks, we could see a situation that leads to another ‘Kent Hughes draft weekend special’, as well as the addition of a few quality players to the organization via the draft.

Winnipeg’s first-round pick, in particular, is likely to be moved before the Canadiens can make their way to the podium toward the end of the round.

As for the other selection, Montreal will probably use their first-round pick to select one of the many talented forwards slated to be available among the top 10 players.

Simply put, the Montreal Canadiens are in an excellent position as they approach the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. A combination of quantity and quality will ensure that Hughes has the assets available to explore every avenue possible.

Brass Tacks

It’s a very encouraging situation, though it’s far from perfect.

Perfect would include adding a player like Macklin Celebrini to the fold this summer. Of course, that’s still a possibility seeing as the Draft Lottery odds do allow for the Canadiens to be given the No.1 overall pick, though it’s not very likely.

Other rebuilding teams also happen to own a higher share of draft capital than most NHL organizations, and that does mitigate the value of Montreal’s situation.

However, when we combine the draft assets with the Canadiens’ healthy salary cap situation, it becomes clear that Hughes and Co. have done a pretty good job setting themselves up for success in the summer of 2024.

Montreal Canadiens State Of The Rebuild Grade – Draft Capital

The Canadiens have the quantity and quality necessary to make waves in pre-draft trades, as well as the draft itself.

What they do with said assets will determine much of the franchise’s potential going forward, but for now, we can safely say the Habs have accumulated an impressive amount of NHL Draft-related capital.

Grade: 9/10

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morrisk

So considering Hughes is likely (likely because its not a done deal, but it looks like it will be) 2 for 2 in the “trading for previous 1st rd draft picks who have fallen out of favor” realm, I do see another similar trade being made at this year’s draft. And I agree that Winny’s late 1st rd pick will be the fodder for said trade.

I also agree that barring the Habs landing the #1 pick, they will NOT trade up to #1 to get Mak, and will take a forward with their fist pick (likely in the 5-7 range). I see Catton or Iginla as the pick.

However, I’m not sure the Habs would then jump into free agency to land yet another forward, if they indeed get two from above methods. If you sort the available UFAs by forwards, PPG, and age (say under 29 or so), there are very few that fit what Hugo would like for this team. And we don’t need a top line winger and don’t need a 3rd line winger…so its second line or bust. If you take out former Habs Sean and Drouin and Domi, and take out Reinhart because he would command about $10M per, then its only Duclair or Sprong who are the likely candidates. If they do sign one of these two, its not a major move…maybe 3-4 yrs at $4M per???

So at this point, assuming they land two forwards in the draft, I would not mind if they passed on free agency altogether and saved all that cash. Can instead be used for another salary retention or buyout (Anderson comes to mind easily). Or they can take on another Monahan for another high end draft pick.

I say wait one more year to make a “huge splash” in free agency (summer 2025). Lets first see what we really have in Dach and Newhook and Slaf and Roy and Hudson and ReinB and Mailloux, Monty, and Primeau, etc. before handing out a $10M per year contract(s)…

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Rocks99

Nevermind free agency, trades is the way to go. With depth at defense, and loads of draft picks, I’m looking for trades this summer.

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Pierre B.

A restricted free agent could be better target. It suffices that one team has cap space issues inciting them to consider trading a RFA who deserves a big raise. That would be an opportunity for Hughes to target a proven NHL top-line forward in roughly the same age group as most of the Canadiens’ core players. Not many teams can accommodate a top-line forward looking for a deal with a cap hit in the 8 M$/year range, even less also have the assets to make such a trade. The Canadiens is one of the few ones, and the team has a stated interested to acquire talent up front.

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morrisk

That’s another good point…an RFA. But, in essence, this is still a trade – we get the RFA, they get a 1st and a 3rd (or something like that)…

But I would not go beyond these two ranges:

$4,290,126 – $6,435,1861 = 1st-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick
$6,435,187 – $8,580,2501 = 1st-round pick, 1 2nd-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick,

Otherwise 2 1st rd picks are the comp and I’m not giving up that.

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Pierre B.

When another team cannot afford to pay for its RFA, its GM will make the player available for trade. Hughes would be better off just negotiating with that team’s GM. The Canadiens have the assets to make a win-win trade; the offer sheet approach would require to give up the 2025 MTL 1st-round pick, unprotected. I’m sure that Hughes could do better than that.

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Patrick

I’d target Martin Necas, he fits the bill !

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Patrick

I would love to see Monahan back.

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DomKing

Casey Middlestadt would seem to be a good target. Colorado has cap issues and very little D depth beyond the top 4. A young defenseman on a cheap contract is precisely what they need.

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morrisk

That’s a great find right there. The Avs are about $9.7M under the cap for 2024-25, but Land comes back from LTIR, so its really only $2.7M under the cap. And they still have 11 players who are UFAs. Casey would cost them at least double his current cap hit…so it seems very likely they would not match an offer sheet from the Habs. He would be in the range of $4,290,126 – $6,435,1861 = 1st-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick. But this would be picks in the 2025 draft.

He would be perfect on the 2nd line.

I’d make that deal…

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Patrick

I doubt the Avs traded Byram, just to let Mittelstadt go.

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Dana

I agree Marc, 9/10 on draft capital. Hughes earned it through well negotiated deals. It’s a core strength currently so it’ll be interesting to see how they convert it ( probably packaged other assets) into players.

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Naslund26

This article is creme de la creme of Habs coverage.

Thank you and keep up the good work.

Where other sites are content to do nothing and cash in this one is bringing real value and analysis.

Worst things the Habs did was fire Dumont, but in glad he’s back to writing killer Habs articles.

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