Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens Draft Lottery Odds Officially Locked In
It came down to the penultimate day of action in the NHL, not to mention the final game in Arizona Coyotes franchise history, but we now know the exact Draft Lottery odds that will be in effect for the Montreal Canadiens.
Seeing as the Coyotes beat the Edmonton Oilers, the Canadiens are locked into the 28th overall spot in the standings. Another way of looking at it would be that the Habs finished the season as the fifth-worst team in the NHL.
This means they will have the following once the NHL Draft Lottery rolls around, usually sometime in early May.
First Overall: 8.5 percent
Second Overall: 8.6 percent
Third Overall: 0.3 percent
Fourth Overall: N/A
Fifth Overall: 24.5 percent
Sixth Overall: 44 percent
Seventh Overall: 14.2 percent.
Making Sense Of The Situation
Considering the Canadiens were awarded the first overall pick in 2022 and the fifth overall pick in 2023, adding yet another top-10 pick to the mix should serve as a great boon for the team’s long-term rebuild plans.
There’s still a chance the team could secure a top-three pick, but as it stands, Habs fans should expect their team to pick between fifth and seventh during the first round of the NHL Entry Draft.
While selecting Macklin Celebrini first overall is unlikely, the Habs should still have plenty of interesting options once they take to the podium, including several forwards who project to be high-end talent.
MUST READ: The Montreal Canadiens Have Intriguing Options Among Top 10 Forwards At Upcoming Draft
Players such as Ivan Demidov, Cayden Lindstrom, Cole Eiserman, Berkly Catton, Konsta Helenius, and Tij Iginla fit the bill, especially when you consider the team is in desperate need of an injection of pure offensive talent.
Iginla, in particular, has been considered one of the forwards that Kent Hughes and company have kept a very close eye on as they plan to take the next step in their rebuild.
Tij Iginla board play, physicality, and forechecking:
Skill inside contact, intercepting contact early, getting pucks off the wall, net drives, and more. #2024NHLDraft pic.twitter.com/zJsnMl73ol
— Mitchell Brown (@MitchLBrown) April 10, 2024
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How would they end up picking third?
They would finish third if the 12th placed team wins the first lottery spot as they can only move up ten spots to 2nd. If Montreal would get the second lottery spot they would end up third.
Higher chance of moving to 6??
Crazy
I smell Berkly or Tij as the top 7 pick. Unless…..
Dare I say if the Habs win the lottery, they trade that #1 pick (Maklin) for a huge haul? Yes, I would like!
They’d be crazy to trade the 1st overall selection, and insane to trade Celebrini.
See below…
… that makes no sense whatsoever. This team has been starved for an offensive talent like Celebrini. We would get him on an ELC for three years, with team control for even longer, and you’d trade him away?? The whole reason montreal would be making any trade moving forward would be to position themselves to acquire an offensive star… celebrini IS an offensive star… he’s only 17 still and just dominated the NCAA… what on earth would you trade him for?? He’s literally EXACTLY what we need
Crazy, yes. Stupid, no.
Hear me out on this…
Maklin is not projected to be a generational talent – say like Bedard last year. Great, yes. Generational great, no. And no way does he replace Nikki on the top line when Nick is the captain and makes $8M per. So Mak would be a second line center on the Habs. How many pts per season do you think he gets therein…say maybe a pt per game? So lets say 82 pts per season. We already have a centre in Dach who when healthy should be about to get to maybe 60-62 pts per season. So that’s about 20-22 pts less. But imagine the haul for this trade…
Dach stays at #2 centre, and we obtain the following in a trade (which is a reasonable “fleece”, because someone will overpay for this trade):
We make THIS trade, and we are set for years. Mak as a 2nd line centre does not single-handedly set us up for years. We WANT Mak, but we don’t NEED Mak – there is a difference. I would not be opposed to keeping him, for the reasons you stated above (plus he’s back with Lane). However, the Habs would do better down the road if they traded him for a haul.
Franchise altering talent, you keep him. Why would you not allow your captain to be the second line Center? That’s his ideal role on a cup contender-to have that depth and strength down the middle is highly desirable.
You’re suggesting quantity for quality when our situation calls for the reverse. We have as much draft capital as anyone, a surplus of riches on the blue line and all we need is two highly productive top 6 forwards to complete the rebuild, and then a bit of time and experience. Win the lottery and you have your first one and he will be a super elite number 1 Center. Trade some assets for the second or sign a UFA or draft him next year. Keep Nick 1C while Maclin develops for a year, maybe two or until his play necessitates they switch. By the time we need to pony up for the young guys, the bad contracts will be over.
Keep the potential superstar if we get so crazy lucky as to win the lottery.
I hear what you are saying, and all makes sense…except for one thing.
I don’t see Mak being so much better than Nick will be to justify drafting him and having him play #1C. Nick is on his way to being the first Hab since Naslund in 85-86 to record 100 pts in a season. I say he gets it either next season or the season after. Mak isn’t going to be “that much better” than Nick. He isn’t going to be McJesus or McKinnon and produce 125+pts per season…I don’t see it.
We already have young and improving top 6 centers on this team, both soon capable of scoring 100 and 60 pts per season, respectively. Center is no longer a big NEED on this team. Dynamic scoring wingers are. My trade proposal gets us that, plus add ons (and gets rid of Anderson!).
While I like your thought process I can’t agree. Celebrini is a clear cut first overall offensive machine without a peer in the draft and he will absolutely produce better than Nick , who is more in the Bergeron, Kopitar, Toews ilk. I think very very highly of Nick, he’s a 211 pound puck hound with soft hands, great vision, elite hockey IQ and he oozes leadership. He’s 24 and in his prime and might be the best 200’ center we’ve had in 3-4 decades. I am a huge huge fan, but that’s not the decision making criteria I’m using.
Macklin is going to be that much better offensively. I hope we need to discuss this further meaning we win the lottery.
Agreed. Let’s kill this unless it warrants further attention…
I rather sign Stamkos or trade for Crosby(they need to move on and he has said during his draft year, he would like to be an hab one day)and get an excellent winger in the draft. Or imagine if we get another top end defencemen. 😆
Nope. Mackllin could take over from Suzuki as no 1 centre in a couple years. Dach can be dominant 3rd centre as we have 3 offensive lines. Dach could eventually traded.
we have the offense bro. just we need to solidify our future scoring
Here’s to whoever they pick turn put to be a bust!
Assuming San Jose wins the lottery, I’d love to see HuGo swing for the fences and offer the Sharks a boatload of our quantity for the #1 pick. Picks, prospects, players, you name it. Make them an offer they can’t refuse. And if they don’t go for it, try to do the same thing to get Will Smith. Hugo coveted him last year but missed out on him. Perhaps if the Sharks get Celebrini, they’d be willing to part with Smith for a package that would stock their sparse pipeline?
Now there’s a thought I like!! Sharks have no good prospects on the blue line so if you offered the right package to Grier, he’d likely jump as their last three or four first round picks were forwards so this type of deal would accelerate the rebuild without compromising it.our two firsts, Kovi and Strubble? He likely gets a top 2 Dman in the draft which really helps balance his prospect pool and addresses the greatest need of the team. Win win….
If it’s Smith we’re talking about, our 1st would not be a part of my package if you are including all those other assets. Smith was drafted 4th overall last year. We have the 5th overall pick this year (assuming nothing changes), so to add all that other stuff to move up essentially 1 spot is way too much imo. I’d do the WPG 1st, one of Kovacevic (hope to keep him though), Harris, Struble or Barron, and anybody in Laval like Farrell, Kidney, etc. to get it done. If that’s not enough, then I’m fine adding multiple Laval guys, or some more later picks.
I was thinking celrbrini but I’d pay for smith as well. They took Elkund 7th in 2021, and Bysted in 2022 and tgen Smith in 2023 so they have nothing of value on their blue line or in the pipeline. In a defence rich draft they would be enticed to trade down anyway, but not too far as I’m sure they have a group of 2-3 they covet so we would be an excellent dance partner. We need the home run and your proposed solution is the best I’ve heard.
😁👍
Forgot a piece of information that may be consequential. Macklins Dad works for the Golden State Warriors so his family lives nearby and he has made it know that he would love for Macklin to be drafted by the sharks. Not sure that it matters but I’m not sure that it doesn’t.
Somebody over at The Hockey Writers site mentioned that to me today too. It’s certainly good intel, but it’s not going to impact anything in the end. The 1st overall pick never gets traded, so all our talk is purely for entertainment purposes. It’s fun to play armchair GM, but we can’t get invested in any of it. It’s never going to happen. 😁
You’re right. We have a much better chance of winning the lottery (8.5% I believe) than swinging a deal
So by that logic, if the Habs win the lottery, they should allow another team to swing for the fences and make the Habs an offer they can’t refuse (like I stated above)? But everyone is against that…
No, no, and no.
He ain’t the next McJesus.
I’m NOT giving up the farm for one guy. The farm is worth more.
Besides, SJ was tied for the fewest goals scored this season. They NEED Mak and Smith next season…no way they trade any of these two.
Next.
Except we already have the farm, we don’t need to trade for another one. What we need is to populate that farm with a couple of more studs. We have the assets. The crop is going to die or spoil before we can use it all, so we might as well convert some of it into something we really need instead.
For the record, I don’t think Celebrini is the greatest player ever, but he seems like another Suzuki with a strong 200ft game with maybe more offensive upside. What’s better than 1 Suzuki? How about 2 of them? 😁
Of course 2 Nikki is better than 1. But not at the price we’d have to pay to obtain the 2nd one. Not worth it.
This team is NOT one Celebrini away from competing for the cup. Its like 3 to 5 real good players away. If we win the lottery and they pick him and don’t trade him…fine. But Hugo will not anti up the farm for this guy, you can put that to bed now.
The #1 pick never gets traded anyway. All of this is for pure entertainment purposes.
We are 2 excellent offensive players in the top 6 away from competing for the Cup, that’s it. Defense is rostered, just needs time. Maybe a goalie but maybe not? Everything else we need is in our system today, plus time to get there.
Line 1 is set
Line 2 Dach celebrini/ Lindstrom /Dedimov and ?
Line 3 Roy Beck and Newhook
Line 4 Florian Xhekaj with Anderson and Gallagher or Armia, Kidney, Tuch etc.
3-5 real good players means 3-5 of these forwards are out and replaced with really good ones Say 4 and really good means top 6 maybe leaking one into into top 9.
Explain how you get there- that is not at all valid logic. It appears you’re saying that if it’s good for us then it’s good for everyone regardless of the situation?
I don’t see how you can say we are giving up the farm? Which core young roster players are being sacrificed? How does moving any of the pieces suggested set us back in the short, medium or long term?
Based on your comments you seem to think he’s potentially Ryan Nugent Hopkins or Nico Hischier. Good players but not big stars. This kid is a stud, and he will be a huge star. He will produce more points than any Hab player of the past 40 years. His ceiling is very high. He will out produce Nick Suzuki, his skill set is just better and geared to generate offense at a higher level.
Connor mcdavid, no. Nate, no. Who claimed that?
I named the sharks picks from past few years. They have no good nhl defenseman prospects in their system. Name them if you disagree. Smith hasn’t played for them so no he hasn’t contributed. Grier traded Hertl and Karlsson and Meier, his 3 very good players. He’s rebuilding and has no defenders in the pipeline. I’m suggesting he is smart and may want to balance things out in his system. They will be a bottom team for a few more years and there are some high end forwards coming up in the next two drafts. If you’re right and Macklin is just fair, then he’d gladly move on from him or at least recognize that he will have opportunities going forward
Because all I see here is trade whatever to get Mak, “make them an offer they can’t refuse”. But if we draft him, we are not open to trading him “for an offer we can’t refuse”? Funny the flip-flop.
Any whatever offer we consider is “an offer they can’t refuse”, just multiply that by 50%…then you have a real offer they can’t refuse. That basically means:
Mak for our 5th-7th pick, Dach, Hudson, and probably another 2nd rd pick (this or next season)…
There’s your offer they can’t refuse.
We want to do that FOR JUST ONE GUY???
But if I got that kind of return for Mak, you’re darn right I’m trading him!
And whoever thinks we are 2 players away from competing for a cup can zip it. We are AT LEAST 4-5 players away – probably even 6 or 7. There is no guarantee that all or even most of our top prospects will hit it. And our goalies at this point are B- at best. We have three producers on this team now. Three. Nikki, CC, and Matheson. Slaf and Dach and Newhook are budding producers who are almost there but not quite yet. Who is our shut-down Dman?
We need players. Not Player. That’s why I trade Mak for a haul if I land him at #1…and that’s why I DON’T trade for him if I don’t get him.
Your trade proposal is ridiculous and ludicrous. You’ve seen Hughes deal, and look what Grier has gotten for his aces, and then tell me your hyperbolic proposal is realistic. It’s fake news all day long. Hughes wouldn’t offer a fraction of that and Grier would accept far less. So because it’s so far beyond realistic I have to look at your motive…
Which of these players is not on the team Montreal coukd ice as a group that competes for the big prize in a few years when they enter their primes
Forwards top 9 Slav, Nick, Roy, Beck, Dach, First round forward pick this upcoming draft, Newhook, Caufield 1 spot empty that needs to be filled.
Defenseman- Hutson, Reinbacher, Mailloux, Xhekaj, Guhle, Matheson, 1 of Harris,/ Barron/ Kovacevic/ Strubble
Goalie- Sam M, Primeau
I’m naming names, and I’m challenge you to tell me where I’m wrong in thinking these are roster players on a championship caliber team instead of some pie in the sky 6-7 players. To add 6-7 you have to make roster spots so tell me which of the top 9 forwards are you dropping and which of the top 6 D are you dropping to make room for these 6-7 guys?
You dropping Nick? No Caufied? Go through the list and tell me but I know you won’t because you can’t!!