Canadiens Top Line Aspiring To Elite NHL Status

The Montreal Canadiens have a few questions left to answer before they announce their opening-night roster, however, the composition of their top line is not among them.

Head coach Martin St-Louis will once again turn to Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky, with their underlying numbers on Tuesday night versus the Philadelphia Flyers serving as a reminder of their potential.

ON TOPIC: First Line, Xhekajs Brother Excel Versus Flyers

Not only did the first line control the play while they were on the ice, they managed to control 94.5 percent of the shots (CF%), on top of scoring two goals while holding their opponents scoreless.

Of course, we have to take preseason games with a grain of salt, but their dominance is an encouraging sign for a line that will be counted upon to do the bulk of the scoring throughout the season.

Before we get going, we’re going to quickly explain some of the statistics that are commonly used on this website. If you have any further questions about their relevance or use, make sure to drop a reply in the comments below. If you want to do a little digging yourself, I strongly suggest you visit Natural Stat Trick.

CF% (Corsi For %) measures shot control. For example, if the Suzuki line takes 9 shots while allowing their opponents to take just 1, they have controlled 90 percent of the shots, and therefore have a 90 CF%. Rather than using Corsi For %, I often call it shot control, because it’s much simpler, and actually describes what’s going on. It should also be noted that we record all shots when discussing CF%, including those that went wide.

HDCF% (High Danger Corsi For %) is the same formula, however, it measures the control of high-danger shots, which are taken within a specific area of the ice near the crease. Not all shots are measured equally, and those taken from a few feet away from the netminder have higher odds of scoring.

via NaturalStatTrick.com

xGF% (Expected Goals For %) is a measure of the probability a shot will end up in the back of the net. It puts an emphasis on shot quality, rather than actual goals. It keeps in mind certain factors as in shot distance, type, and location. This gives us a good idea whether the team or certain players are scoring sustainably.

There are a few other numbers you may notice throughout the year, but these are the base statistics that are most commonly used.

2024-25 Montreal Canadiens Statistics

Montreal’s top line had a successful season, emerging as a real threat to take over a game at any moment, but it took them a while to put together the type of performances that would be considered elite, or at the very least, sustainable.

In the first half of the season, the Suzuki line managed to control 52 percent of the shots, a very respectable number. But once we dig a little, it becomes clear that there were a few areas in need of improvement.

Their high-danger shot control was just 38.1 percent, while their expected goals landed at 43.8 percent. In other words, they were taking more shots than their opponents, but they were taking fewer quality scoring chances, a significant red flag.

The second half of the season also featured roughly the same shot control (52.9 percent), however, there was a healthy bump in high-danger chances (49 percent), as well as expected goals (52.8 percent).

What does this tell us?

Most notably, their second-half numbers were much better, although there’s some work left to be done when it comes to high-danger chances. This is particularly important for a team like the Habs, as they have historically struggled to gain an upper hand when it comes to quality chances. Montreal finished with just a 45.7 percent control of HD chances last season, the fourth-worst result of any NHL team.

We should also note that splitting the season in two is common in analysis, but it’s still very much an arbitrary cutoff.

But in this case, it does suggest an evolution from a young trio of talented players into a top line with legitimate elite potential, especially when we consider 26-year-old Suzuki is the elder statesman.

If the Canadiens are to ensure their upward trajectory in 2025-26, they’ll need more than just one functional line, but in the meantime, the Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovsky combination has the ability to put together the type of underlying numbers that will give the rest of the players in the lineup a longer grace period to find their rhythm.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.