Canadiens Analysis
Projecting Canadiens Defensive Pairings Including Dobson
There’s an ongoing debate among Montreal Canadiens fans as to which aspect of the lineup needs the most attention.
Even though the Habs finished in the bottom-half of the NHL in terms of expected goals (xGF) last season, only the Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks finished with more expected goals against (xGA), connoting that there’s probably a little more work to be done when it comes to improving the defensive situation.
That’s part of the reason the trade to acquire defenceman Noah Dobson was judged by many analysts as being a masterful upgrade by general manager Kent Hughes.
MUST READ – Dobson Trade Tidy Business by the Montreal Canadiens
On top of being an established top-pairing defenceman, Dobson offered a significant improvement to an area of weakness, immediately slotting in as the team’s top right-handed defenceman. Beyond Dobson, the Canadiens only have one established option on the blue line that would be playing in his natural position on the right side of the ice: Alexandre Carrier.
And now that Logan Mailloux has been traded to the St-Louis Blues, the only RHD prospect with legitimate NHL aspirations is David Reinbacher. Simply put, the options on the right are few and far between.
Montreal Canadiens LHD:Â Lane Hutson, Kaiden Guhle, Mike Matheson, Jayden Struble, Arber Xhekaj, William Trudeau, Adam Engstrom, and Marc Del Gaizo.
Montreal Canadiens RHD:Â Noah Dobson, Alexandre Carrier, David Reinbacher, Nate Clurman.
It’s far from an ideal situation, but such is life in the modern sports landscape. There’s simply not enough talent to go around, leaving almost every team with obvious weaknesses in their lineup.
Thankfully, there are a few players who can survive while playing on either side of the blue line, but suffice it to say the Dobson trade was a necessary decision for a team that hopes to maintain an upward trajectory now that they have dipped their toes in the icy waters of the NHL playoffs.
When evaluating Dobson’s stats with the New York Islanders, the first thing that stands out is the discrepancy in results while playing alongside various defensive partners. While he played with Alexandre Romanov and Adam Pelech, Dobson’s stats were fantastic, but they suffered a significant downtick alongside Ryan Pulock.
This connotes that the best defensive partner for Dobson would probably be Kaiden Guhle, rather than Lane Hutson. Of course, Hutson is better than anyone Dobson played with during his tenure with the Islanders, and there’s a chance head coach Martin St-Louis would want to overload his top pairing with pure talent, but by splitting up Hutson and Dobson, he would ensure that his top-four would maintain a healthy balance of skill and playing styles.
As for the final defenceman in the top four, Alexandre Carrier fits the bill. That’s not to say Mike Matheson is a third-pairing defenceman, but it would be great if Hutson could play on his natural side, rather than forcing him to play on his offside, leaving Carrier as the most logical option.
However, we should point out that Matheson and Hutson played quite well together last season, giving the Habs a decent contingency plan should they judge Carrier needs a lighter workload.
When discussing the third pairing, it’s quite clear St-Louis will have more options than ever, and more importantly, quality options. A reduction in 5v5 ice time could work wonders for Matheson, a player who has been tasked with the type of responsibilities that are normally reserved for $10 million defencemen.
Whether the team decides to run with Arber Xhekaj and Jayden Struble as the third pairing, or a combination including Matheson, it’s important to remember about the inevitable injury issue, making the logjam on defence a great problem to have for a team like the Montreal Canadiens.
Personally, I believe Reinbacher is not yet ready for full-time NHL action, and would be best off spending another season with the Laval Rocket, but he will be given a chance to earn a roster spot at camp.
Things can (and will) change, but for now, here’s a (very) early look at the potential Canadiens defensive pairings.
Projected Montreal Canadiens Defensive Pairings
Kaiden Guhle – Noah Dobson
Lane Hutson – Alexandre Carrier
Mike Matheson – Jayden Struble/Arber Xhekaj
ON TOPIC: Projected Canadiens Forward Lines Including Bolduc
Do you agree or disagree with the Montreal Canadiens defensive pairings we assembled? If so, let us know in the comments below!
Totally agree that splitting Hutson and Dobson is best, gives a good balance down the lines, I’m still hoping Reinbacher surprises us all at camp and one of bottom group gets traded for a 2c
Not sure about Struble getting a 2C in a trade. They would have to trade Matheson / prospects/ picks to get value.
I would consider moving Laine (not sure but think he has NT clause) but he might not really be easy to trade.
While the idea is good, Laine doesnt have enough value right now to be enticing to another team. We would need to give up a pick or prospect to gdt rid if his salary. As for Matheson, while the idea of trading him right now is the right one, we need to see what we could get. I think you would need to target a team that wants to win now and have a good center prospect that would be ready to enter the NHL but is blocked behind a slew of good center (Catton, Savoie, etc)
IDK, IMO it’s pretty clear and obvious how our pairings should breakdown if we don’t make another trade and they all stay healthy.
Guhle/Dobson
Matheson/Hutson
Xhekaj/Carrier
Struble
That said I do think Carrier can hold down a top 4 role until Reinbacher is ready and I think a mix of Struble/Engstrom can lock down the 6th/7th roles – so if we can package Mike for a 2C, I’m all for it. 😉
I rate Struble ahead of Xhekaj.
That would be a massive mistake… we already saw how a rusty Xhekaj from the stands was 100% more of an impact once he got into the playoffs… no one in their right mind has Struble ahead of Xhekaj in our bottom pair.
Yeah right. He did absolutely nothing. Guys were still getting bashed around. With Xhekaj in the lineup they wouldn’t even make the playoffs. He’s not a good defensive player at all.
I would prefer Hutson to play with a partner a bit more physicality and size. Carrier is a very solid – might work really well. Just think as they get toward end of season and challenging for playoff spot – opponents are likely to load up a strong forecheck targeting the body.
I thought Enstrom was a viable RD who shots left? Tend to agree Reinbacher may not be ready and no point in rushing him. Maybe Hutson and Matheson should stay together?
Matheson/Hutson looked good together last year, we can’t put Mike on the 3rd pair, and Guhle/Dobson will get tougher assignments.
IF we trade Matheson, Carrier with Hutson and Hutson on the left does make a lot of sense, but as long as Mike is here I would fully expect Mike in our top 4
I thought Hutson and Guhle played really well together last year and Hutson never missed a beat playing on his offside. I just don’t see Matheson as a third pair guy. I’d be tempted to go with
Matheson/Dobson
Guhle/Hutson
Xhekaj(Struble)/Carrier
The two top pairs would play more as 1A and 1B rather than 1 and 2.
two more turnover guys on your top pair? Nah, I like Guhle and Dobson. I think that’ll be a strong first pair and I agree with at least trying Matheson/Hutson.
There’s too many teams looking for a 2C so I personally don’t think just Matheson would bring that strong of a 2C return and I think at this point his experience and leadership on a still young team is too valuable. Unless of course some amazing 2C for him option came up!
Hutson looked fine on the right side.
No way, you need Matheson paired with Hutson or Xhekaj to increase size and grit. Carrier is awesome but much like Hutson, he’s a play maker and should be pair with Xhekaj or Reichenbecher. I believe he’s ready for the NHL and will take a dozen games to adapt but put him in right away.
Reinbacher with Carrier? Two RD on a pair when we have so many LD? That doesn’t make sense and no reason to rush Reinbacher.
It’d be much better to have him as a 1D in Laval than 3D on the Habs
Carrier took a beating on the playoffs. Third pairing and short term IMO.
And his numbers took a beating down the stretch of the regular season. He’s able to handle rough assignments, but St-Louis really poured it on.
For now I like:
Guhle – Dobson
Matheson – Hutson
Xhekaj – Carrier
Top pair are balanced offensively and defensively. Second pair offensive puck movers. Third pair more definitely inclined. Carrier can mentor Xhekaj in this area.
Eventually I see:
Guhle – Dobson
Hutson – Reinbacher
Xhekaj – TBD, but a big, mean S.O. B.
Top pair stays the same. Second pair moves Hutson back to his proper side, and balances the pairing out offensively/defensively. Third pair become a shutdown duo to put on the ice at the end of the game when we want to lock down a lead. I still don’t know if the D group as a whole are going to be big and mean enough to make it through 4 rounds of the playoff wars. I’d prefer it if Reinbacher were a big, mean S.O. B. type like Edmundson or Chiarot, but I doubt we’ll be trading him any time soon. I imagine some playoff failures where we are getting pushed around in our end or outmuscled in front of Fowler and that’s when the fans/media will start clamouring for bigger, meaner guys instead of so many offensive types. We’ve got an offensively inclined team of the future, but as every offensive team ever has learned before they ever win the big prize, defence wins championships. We also will be counting on small guys like Caufield and Hutson to be the key to our offence which is potentially problematic, but we’ll see how that goes because I’m hoping we become a 4 line team that doesn’t depend on just a few guys for all their goal scoring.
fully agree… although I think Carrier could stick around for awhile and be part of the future 3rd pair as well (unless we do find that big, mean, SOB) 😉
I agree. Especially while Xhekaj is still learning, team him with a steady guy like Carrier. Don’t need two “big mean sobs” on the 3rd pair necessarily and besides, Struble and Xhekaj as a pair have been pretty decent, despite their lack of experience, at least based on Dumont’s analysis.
Marc Del Gaizo will likely play for Laval, but last year he played 46 games for Nashville, so if Martin St. Louis likes his style, then Marc may be given some consideration perhaps being paired with his former Nashville teammate Carrier.
I agree
5’9Hutson and 5’11carrier would strike fear in opposing forechecks…terrible pairing
So you say Hutson played well with Matheson. But you failed to point out that he played and paired best with Struble. During the 5 weeks together they ranked 4th best defensive pairing in the league.