Canadiens Analysis
Instant Analysis: Dobson Trade Smart Business By Canadiens
Now that the Montreal Canadiens have completed a blockbuster trade to acquire defenceman Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders, it’s time to take a look at the framework of the deal.
ON TOPIC: BLOCKBUSTER TRADE – Canadiens Trade For Noah Dobson
Fills A Need
The Canadiens were short on talent and depth on the blue line, and though they do have a couple of prospects who may one day ascend to the top-four, Dobson immediately improves a position of weakness for the NHL lineup.
The trade also gives head coach Martin St-Louis more options, a crucial upgrade at a time when the Habs are expected to take the next step in their rebuild. Having Lane Hutson in the lineup is already a significant boon, but every great player needs help, and that’s where Dobson comes into play. He can absorb important minutes while also bolstering the team’s play at 5v5.
The Cost
The Canadiens didn’t get Dobson for cheap, paying a pair of first-round picks (16th and 17th overall), not to mention prospect Emil Heineman. With all due respect to Heineman, his inclusion in the deal is far from a big concern, even if he did provide solid hockey from the bottom-six last season.
As for the picks, given that they’re mid-round, and that the players selected in that range on Friday will likely take a few years before they’re NHL ready, it’s only fair to say this is a decision based on Montreal’s projected Stanley Cup window. At 25 years old, Dobson fits that window perfectly.
It should be noted the Canadiens also signed Dobson to an eight-year contract extension which carries a $9.5 million annual average value, ensuring some stability on the blue line for the foreseeable future.
Underlying Numbers
There have been some concerns about Dobson’s defensive impact, which is fair given that last season was far from his best NHL campaign. That being said, the Islanders were a mess, and Dobson’s numbers still represent a top-pairing defenceman in the NHL, both at 5v5 and on the powerplay.
If you’re looking for a quick overview of Dobson’s underlying numbers, the player card via JFresh provides us with a very reassuring assessment of his impact.
Message To Fans And Team
It couldn’t be clearer, the Montreal Canadiens are dead set on maintaining an upward trajectory, and they’re willing to spend important assets to push toward better results.
It’s a message to the fans, thanking them for their loyalty during the rebuild, while also providing reassurance to key players on the team who are thirsty for success, including captain Nick Suzuki.
We will delve into the specifics of Dobson’s usage in the very near future, not to mention the impact of his new contract, but for now Canadiens fans can rest easy knowing they made a significant improvement to the lineup on Friday.
Go Habs Go!
I am glad they still have Mailloux and Reinbacher.
This is a very savvy move and sets up the Habs on the backend for a long time. Hutson should get very similar dollars. I hope he and his team do not try to shoot the moon on this first post-ELC contract.
I can’t wait for your Column Marc on potential D pairings next year.
… getting him while keeping ALL of Reinbacher, Hage, and Mailloux… wow. And that $9.5 will be the equivalent of like $7-7.5 in short order. That’s nice value for a top pairing guy.
Couple of magic beans and a bottom 6 player for a top pairing guy RHD….
So happy with this trade.
Oh, and thanks for more analytics Marc!
I don’t really understand the analytics, but thank you very much. On the Athletic, Isles fans were pooping all over him saying he was lousy defensively. I know fans do that when a guy is traded, but still nice to hear otherwise.
He’s not above coughing up the puck, but that’s normal for a puck-moving defenceman. And those giveaways tend to stand out in our memories, but overall, he clearly makes a significant positive impact when he’s on the ice, and it’s not up for debate.
I think Matheson might be needing to call a real estate agent soon. I’d be surprised if we keep all 3 of Hutson’s, Dobson and Matheson for the whole year. Perhaps he’s going out for a 1st rounder higher than #16 or #17? It’s tough on your scouting dept to do all that work and then have the carpet pulled out from under you just hours before your moment in the sun. I HuGo are cognizant of that. Stay tuned…
Thart would be sweet but I think he might bring in a couple 2nd rounders at best. Can’t put a finger on good pairings if they keep him though.. Long teem it should be Guhle with Dobson and Lane with Reinbacher. MM just doesn’t fit in anymore.
I can’t imagine Matheson, a minute-munching, puck-moving, offensive Dman on a sweet contract not getting us a 1st+. It’s bittersweet though, because I really like the guy.
Imagine if our 3rd pairing is Xhekaj & Mailloux? We’d have to have one of the best 6 pack in the entire league!
Let us not forget about Carrier. Solid role playing Dman that fit in very well on the ice and respected by his teammates in the dressing room.
Love this trade
So where is the money going to come from to sign the restricted free agents and a second line center?
A foolish trade that will cost the team for years to come. Just think, in 26-27, after Hutson’s extension kicks in, Habs will have about $25 mil/year tied up in their top 3 defencemen. That will be around 25% of the Cap for 3 defencemen. Stupid is too kind a word for this trade. This was going after the shiny new toy on the market. It surely didn’t fill a void, not with Hutson’s rookie season of the ages.
Habs needed a replacement for Savard, as in a shutdown, penalty killing defenceman teams hate to play against and Hughes traded for another offensive defenceman. Great idea.
This instead of filling the black hole at 2C. Dach and Newhook are dreadful at center, and have no business taking faceoffs, period. Dach was -29 with only 22 pts, Newhook barely better even though he played far more games than Kirby Porcelain.
Then he traded our next best trade chip for a 4th right winger.
Whatever happened to Champions build through the middle? This center group only scares their own fans.