Canadiens Analysis
Evaluating Potential Canadiens Fit For Free Agent Toews
It’s no secret that the Montreal Canadiens could use more options down the middle of the lineup, the driving force behind the Jonathan Toews discussion.
Depending on how they navigate their unrestricted free agent situation, the Habs will be able to count on Nick Suzuki as their No.1 centre, with Jake Evans filling out the fourth-line role, leaving a significant gap in the lineup.
Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach could serve as centres if need be, but it would be far from an ideal setup. Both players struggle to win faceoffs, and neither produced encouraging underlying numbers last season. If the Canadiens want to maintain their upward trend, they’ll need to give head coach Martin St-Louis more quality options.
Evaluating Potential Jonathan Toews Fit With the Montreal Canadiens
According to Pierre LeBrun, super agent Pat Brisson has discussed a potential return to play for his client with a few different teams, including the Winnipeg Jets. He also suggested the Colorado Avalanche could be in the mix following their disappointing first-round loss to the Dallas Stars.
If Toews does return to the NHL, he’ll likely want to join a team that is actively shopping for a centre, which makes the Canadiens a decent fit.
However, it’s difficult to project a scenario in which Toews would join the Canadiens and immediately make a positive impact. His last playoff game was in 2020, and due to Chronic Immune Response Syndrome (CIRS) and long COVID, he has not featured in an NHL game in almost 800 days. The unfortunate health issues also forced him to miss the entirety of the 2020-21 season.
It’s only fair to project a certain acclimatization period in this case. Not only does Toews have to remove a few layers of rust, which connotes a strong start is improbable, he’d also have to familiarize himself with new teammates, new strategies, a new coach, and a new city.
It adds a significant wrinkle to the proposal, as the Habs do not have much room for error when it comes to their playoff hopes.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Beyond the fact that he only produced 37 and 31 points in his final two seasons, Toews’ underlying numbers also suffered a noticeable decline.
The last time he managed to produce a season in which he controlled over 50 percent of the expected goals was way back in 2017-18.
His final two seasons in the league saw that number drop below 40 percent (38.2 percent, 37.2 percent), which represents the type of red flag a team such as the Montreal Canadiens cannot afford to ignore. The Habs took a big step forward last season, but they still have a hard time putting together stretches in which they hold an advantage in shots and quality scoring chances.
We do have to keep in mind Toews was playing for a very weak Chicago Blackhawks team, which means he could produce better numbers with the Habs, but we also have to be realistic regarding his potential.
Toews is 37 years old, hasn’t played hockey in a very long time, and when he did, the numbers were quite underwhelming.
All things considered, even if the Montreal Canadiens are actively shopping for centres, the best way forward would be to set their sights on a higher-value target.
All Montreal Canadiens and Jonathan Toews statistics are 5v5, via Natural Stat Trick.
Dear Marc: subscriber and long time admirer of you and your hockey acumen. Permit me to respectfully say that I believe that you are significantly underestimating Kirby Dach.
You are a better aware of his injuries and their effect than I am; but at his youth and with his very high skill set which he has demonstrated objectively these can in principal be overcome; and “face off ability” is a bit of a “meh” for me— merely some technical skill that can be perfected with perfect training.
Respectfully
Here’s how I look at it.
When Dach had rough faceoff numbers but still produced solid underlying numbers, things were more than fine. I don’t worry about faceoffs if the centre usually finishes with more than 50 percent of the shots, scoring chances, etc.
But if you can’t win faceoffs AND you get outplayed on a regular basis, which was the case last year, there’s a significant issue at play, pointing to a player who should not be used as a centre.
I’m not writing him off yet, but for now, I think the best bet is to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. He will need time to find his rhythm after yet another significant injury, as well. Feels like a lot to ask him to take care of the glaring issue in the lineup given how his season went down.
But even if Dach was good to go as a C, I’d argue the Habs should still find another centre to bolster the lineup. His injury history is well established at this point, we simply can’t ignore it. Contingency plans are necessary.
I think his subpar numbers last season had more to do with the fact that his knee was not healed from the previous year’s injury. IMO, he was trying to play through it and his numbers dipped as a result. If the Habs can better supervise his rehab this summer, and Dach returns to full strength/health, I think we’ll see the player we were hoping for. 🤞
Montreal should have had Dach play on the wing last until his knee was a 100 percent.
Wingers have to take more hits along the boards and participate in more board battles, so maybe that could have been worse. Maybe he also wasn’t being entirely truthful with the training staff. Who knows. I just hope he’s closely supervised with his rehab to make sure he gets it right this time.
I suspect his knee wasn’t right, but that would be an issue for the surgeons, not the lineup card. If I understand correctly, he maybe didn’t do a great job of managing his recovery. Hopefully he does everything right and works hard this off season and comes back ready to go. He might be a great guy to center for Demidov’s development but he’s got to be as good as he can be.
I wasn’t too concerned with Kirby’s face off performance as I thought that experience at the dot in the NHL and some steady attention to it would result in some improvement. However, the little bit I saw of him last season raised my eyebrows quite a bit. I thought he just looked like he was expecting to lose before the puck even dropped. You need intense focus for face offs, not fear and disinterest. At this point I can only hope that maybe his knee didn’t feel right after the first surgery and led to a serious lack of confidence. If so, perhaps the surgeons got it right this time and he can work back to his potential.
Start him on the wing on the third line. No pressure, just play. If he’s looking good and feeling good, move him into the middle or up to second line wing and let him get comfortable there.
Unless there’s a serious need, no second line center duties until at least the 40 game mark. His head has to be right first and permanently.