Evaluating Potential Canadiens Fit For Free Agent Toews

It’s no secret that the Montreal Canadiens could use more options down the middle of the lineup, the driving force behind the Jonathan Toews discussion.

Depending on how they navigate their unrestricted free agent situation, the Habs will be able to count on Nick Suzuki as their No.1 centre, with Jake Evans filling out the fourth-line role, leaving a significant gap in the lineup.

Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach could serve as centres if need be, but it would be far from an ideal setup. Both players struggle to win faceoffs, and neither produced encouraging underlying numbers last season. If the Canadiens want to maintain their upward trend, they’ll need to give head coach Martin St-Louis more quality options.

Evaluating Potential Jonathan Toews Fit With the Montreal Canadiens

According to Pierre LeBrun, super agent Pat Brisson has discussed a potential return to play for his client with a few different teams, including the Winnipeg Jets. He also suggested the Colorado Avalanche could be in the mix following their disappointing first-round loss to the Dallas Stars.

If Toews does return to the NHL, he’ll likely want to join a team that is actively shopping for a centre, which makes the Canadiens a decent fit.

However, it’s difficult to project a scenario in which Toews would join the Canadiens and immediately make a positive impact. His last playoff game was in 2020, and due to Chronic Immune Response Syndrome (CIRS) and long COVID, he has not featured in an NHL game in almost 800 days. The unfortunate health issues also forced him to miss the entirety of the 2020-21 season.

It’s only fair to project a certain acclimatization period in this case. Not only does Toews have to remove a few layers of rust, which connotes a strong start is improbable, he’d also have to familiarize himself with new teammates, new strategies, a new coach, and a new city.

It adds a significant wrinkle to the proposal, as the Habs do not have much room for error when it comes to their playoff hopes.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Beyond the fact that he only produced 37 and 31 points in his final two seasons, Toews’ underlying numbers also suffered a noticeable decline.

The last time he managed to produce a season in which he controlled over 50 percent of the expected goals was way back in 2017-18.

His final two seasons in the league saw that number drop below 40 percent (38.2 percent, 37.2 percent), which represents the type of red flag a team such as the Montreal Canadiens cannot afford to ignore. The Habs took a big step forward last season, but they still have a hard time putting together stretches in which they hold an advantage in shots and quality scoring chances.

We do have to keep in mind Toews was playing for a very weak Chicago Blackhawks team, which means he could produce better numbers with the Habs, but we also have to be realistic regarding his potential.

Toews is 37 years old, hasn’t played hockey in a very long time, and when he did, the numbers were quite underwhelming.

All things considered, even if the Montreal Canadiens are actively shopping for centres, the best way forward would be to set their sights on a higher-value target.

All Montreal Canadiens and Jonathan Toews statistics are 5v5, via Natural Stat Trick.