Montreal Canadiens Free Agency: The John Tavares Situation

It’s quite clear the Montreal Canadiens could stand to add a high-level centre to their lineup, however, that’s much easier said than done, especially via free agency.

On Wednesday we discussed the possibility of offering Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner a contract, and while the idea wasn’t rejected outright, it was evident most Habs fans are not interested in his services.

Consequently, some fans pivoted, setting their sights on yet another Maple Leafs player, forward John Tavares.

As per tradition, I will offer a lengthy caveat before we delve into the analysis.

I honestly doubt Tavares is interested in playing in Montreal, a situation that has much more to do with his loyalty toward Toronto than his disdain for the Canadiens. He’s spent a significant portion of his career in Toronto, and he mentioned he would like to be back in the fold next season.

Of course, stranger things have happened, but I don’t want to give anyone the impression that Tavares is in play.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the 34-year-old centre could offer to the Canadiens should his outlook change in the next few weeks, especially since it doesn’t seem like the Leafs can afford a contract extension.

John Tavares Statistics

He’s still a very good hockey player when evaluating his raw production. He’s managed to produce an impressive amount of offence while playing in Auston Matthews’ shadow. With 38 goals and 36 assists in 75 games this season, Tavares reminded everyone that his time in the NHL is far from done.

John Tavares extends the Leafs’ lead with his 25th career playoff goal and 50th career playoff point 🫡

📺: Senators vs. Maple Leafs on Sportsnet pic.twitter.com/iXKJ4RoSvU

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 23, 2025

That being said, his most common linemate was William Nylander, connoting that he was still being used in a situation that’s conducive to scoring. Away from Nylander, his numbers were far from great.

In fact, he finished the year controlling just 45 percent of the shots while he was on the ice, his lowest result since joining the Leafs. The one thing money can’t buy is more time, and as we know, it comes for us all, eventually.

Take a look for yourself if you are unconvinced.

Does that mean he would immediately struggle with the Habs? Not necessarily, but he’s no longer driving the play as he did in the past, and such a significant drop in underlying numbers is usually the first sign that the inevitable statistical decline is on the horizon.

On that note, Tavares managed to produce 41 points at 5v5 this season, his highest output since his first year in Toronto. Only Nick Suzuki (49 points) and Cole Caufield (47 points) outproduced him at 5v5.

His 20 goals at 5v5 would also rank second in Montreal, behind Caufield (27 goals), though we can’t ignore that his shooting average was 16.53 percent, the highest efficiency since he joined the NHL. That’s the epitome of a red flag. His individual stats also suffered, with a significant downtick in individual expected goals, as well as individual high-danger chances.

Considering he’s on the wrong side of 34, it’s not overly surprising. More than anything, it’s impressive he bucked the trend up until this point. It’s the sign of an elite player who is starting to run out of steam.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

If the Canadiens were in desperate need of leadership, I would argue Tavares’ presence would mitigate some of the concern about his decline in underlying numbers, but I’m not convinced Nick Suzuki needs much help at this point, and there are several other players in the Canadiens lineup that can provide him with support if the need arises.

On that note, having a talented veteran alongside Ivan Demidov on the second line would be a boon, even if said veteran has seen better days. Having Demidov play with a centre that is best-suited for third or fourth line would hamper his development.

But even if Tavares wanted to sign in Montreal, which is unlikely, the team would not be able to afford him much stability when it comes to the term. At best, they could offer him a one or two-year deal.

That may work out for all involved, especially if Toronto shuts the door, but it’s important to remember that Tavares is no longer the dominant presence he once was.

He still produces, and an offence-starved team shouldn’t balk at a player who almost scored 40 goals in the previous season, but the stars need to align if Tavares is to sign a reasonable, short-term contract with the Montreal Canadiens that brings a certain amount of value to the table.

All Montreal Canadiens and John Tavares statistics are via Natural Stat Trick.