Canadiens Pros And Cons Of A Potential Mitch Marner Contract

The Montreal Canadiens are looking to add high-level talent to the lineup to ensure the team maintains an upward trend in year four of the rebuild.

To do so, they’ll have to exhaust every avenue, including players who are set to become unrestricted free agents. One of the biggest names that will hit the open market this summer is current Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner.

Before we get going on the pros and cons of a potential offer to Marner, it must be said that signing a former Leaf isn’t exactly a common situation for the Canadiens.

And there’s no doubt Habs fans hold a certain amount of contempt whenever Marner’s name comes up.

That being said, the opportunities to sign elite players in free agency are few and far between. No team, including the Canadiens, can afford to ignore Marner. In other words, due diligence is in order, which is exactly what we’ll do in this article.

Pros Of A Potential Mitch Marner Contract

Marner is an elite forward, as evidenced by the fact that he surpassed the 100 point mark this season, scoring 27 goals and 75 assists in 81 games. With that in mind, Mats Naslund was the last member of the Canadiens to reach 100 points, and that was way back in 1986, roughly 13 years before Nick Suzuki was born.

At 28 years old, Marner is in the midst of his statistical prime, and since he’s a player with an elite skill set, he will likely buck the downward trend that usually takes over whenever an NHL player reaches 30 years old.

He’s one of the most talented playmakers in the league, producing 105 assists at 5v5 over the course of the last three seasons. That places Marner in sixth place among all NHL players, with only Nathan MacKinnon (121), Nikita Kucherov (119), Connor McDavid (116), Sidney Crosby (107),  and Leon Draisaitl (104) producing more assists at 5v5 in that stretch.

In fact, if we focus on ice time, Marner jumps to fourth in the NHL with 1.85 assists per 60, trailing Kucherov (1.88), McDavid (1.88), and MacKinnon (1.85). With all due respect to the other players in the current lineup, I doubt Marner would take long to establish himself as the Canadiens’ best playmaker.

As for his impact in the playoffs, I’d argue that’s a matter that has been overblown due to the intense media coverage in Toronto. He had 13 points in 13 games this year, just two points behind William Nylander for the team lead. That pushed his career totals to 13 goals and 50 assists in 70 playoff games, a very solid production rate when we consider how difficult it is to score in mid-May.

Marner is also capable of playing down the middle of the ice, which would fill a need for the Montreal Canadiens, as they’re currently looking to find a high-level centre to play on the second line with rookie Ivan Demidov. Therefore, you could argue that Marner also fills a very pressing need for the Habs. If Montreal is to compete with teams that are legitimate Cup contenders, they will need more than just one functional line to tread water.

Additionally, if the Canadiens sign Marner as a free agent, they would not have to spend any assets beyond cap space to acquire a player who should be able to turn a few weaknesses into strengths.

And finally, even though I usually invite everyone to leave emotions aside when discussing players from rival teams, it would be rather hilarious to watch Marner become an important member of the Canadiens while also playing a key part every time they face the Leafs.

Mitch Marner is insane. Breaks his stick, races to get a new one, joins the rush, gets an assist on the goal. pic.twitter.com/DpxE60KMfH

— ًًً (@icenineleafs) November 29, 2018

Cons Of A Potential Mitch Marner Contract

While I’m not overly concerned with the theory that Marner disappears in the playoffs, he has dealt with a long streak of heart-wrenching losses in the spring, and just like eating 47 tacos in your basement, the stench of losing is very hard to air out.

A lot like his captain, Auston Matthews, Marner’s body language suggests he’s quick to accept his fate once the Leafs stop winning. That’s far from ideal, especially since Marner has worn the alternate captain badge on many occasions. However, I’d also propose he’s following Matthews’ lead, which means a new leadership group could potentially give Marner the support and mentorship he needs to thrive.

You’ll never see Nick Suzuki or Brendan Gallagher smile as they’re battered and bruised in the playoffs, whereas Matthews will never live down his unserious attitude when the Habs eliminated his team from the playoffs in 2021.

On that note, if the Habs were to sign Marner, he would not be included in the leadership group, at least not at first. Given his track record, removing some of the responsibilities that come with being in a leadership position seems to be the wisest way forward.

As for his value as a centre, he can certainly produce points when anchoring a line, but he’s absolutely dismal at taking faceoffs. He won just 32.5 percent of his draws in the last three seasons, though it should be noted that he only took 27 draws in that stretch. A little more practice at the faceoff dot would be in order for Marner, as he’s essentially spent most of his NHL career on the right wing.

The biggest red flag when evaluating Marner’s play in recent years are his results without Matthews.

With Matthews, Marner has controlled 52.5 percent of the shots while he’s on the ice. Without Matthews, that number drops to 44.8 percent. The same phenomenon repeats when evaluating other key stats. With Matthews, Marner’s expected goals percentage is 55.7, without his most commonly used linemate his expected goals drops to 45.4.

The one saving grace is that he was used in a role that was much more conducive to producing when he played with Matthews. He started 54 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone in those situations, whereas that number drops to 37.8 percent whenever the duo was split up. If Marner were to centre the second line in Montreal, head coach Martin St-Louis would have to ensure he receives plenty of offensive zone starts, a strategy that would also be a boon for Demidov.

When discussing elite players that hit free agency, we always have to keep the cost in mind. Marner is coming off a six-year contract that paid him $10.9 million per season, which means he’ll likely be looking for another raise as teams attempt to convince him to join their organization. It’s hard to project exactly how much he’ll command, but a deal that carries an annual average value of $13 million is not out of the question.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

There’s a lot to like about Mitch Marner.

He’s highly skilled, and that’s exactly what the Canadiens need as they attempt to take the next step in their rebuild.

Often times, a new start is exactly what a player requires to reach the next level, and due to the hate-hate relationship in Toronto, you could argue that joining a new team would do wonders for Marner. On the flip side, the media attention that he loathed in Toronto would quickly reach a boiling point in Montreal as well.

Committing a significant percentage of a team’s overall salary cap expenditures on a player who doesn’t enjoy constant attention is the epitome of a red flag for the Habs.

It would be a situation that Kent Hughes and Co. would have to discuss with Suzuki before coming to a conclusion, to ensure the current group of players would be a good fit for Marner, and vice versa.

Simply put, a rich contract offer for Marner isn’t necessarily a bad idea, but the Montreal Canadiens will have to get all their ducks in a row before considering adding the former Leaf to the lineup.

All Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.