Canadiens Analysis
Comparable NHL Contracts For Hutson Mega Extension
The Montreal Canadiens knew they had a drafted a special player when they spoke Lane Hutson’s name toward the end of the second round in the 2022 NHL Draft.
He set records at every level, and despite many stating his physiology wouldn’t translate to an athlete that could thrive in the NHL, Hutson’s rookie season should end with a well-deserved Calder Trophy win.
However, the flip side of the situations is that Hutson is gearing up for one of the most expensive contracts in team history, a deal that could be signed as early as July 1.
Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton briefly discussed the situation on Monday, suggesting they’d like to get the issue settled within a reasonable time frame.
Lane Hutson Comparable Contract Caveat
Before we start discussing comparable contracts, we should establish a few things that will help everyone get on the same page. The NHL’s salary cap is going up, way up. This means there will be a clear discrepancy between the contracts signed prior to the increase, and those signed afterward.
ON TOPIC: Montreal Canadiens Projected Cap Space Heading Into 2025
It’s important to remember, because the Habs attempted to create a salary structure in previous years that keeps captain Nick Suzuki at the top of the list. You’ll note both Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky signed extensions that were slightly below Suzuki’s.
That’s possible in a relatively flat-cap world, but that’s no longer the reality of the NHL’s salary cap landscape, which means we need to use something other than cap hits to project how much a certain player will command.
Thankfully, there’s an easy fix.
We can simply focus on cap percentage, rather than the raw hit.
For example, Suzuki’s cap hit is $7.875 million, which equates to 8.9 percent.
If the Canadiens were to invest 8.9 percent of the salary cap in one player next season, it would cost them $8.5 million. The following season, which is expected to see the cap rise to $104 million, would result in a contract carrying in a $9.25 million annual average value (AAV).
Finding Similar Deals
For now, we’re going to assume both camps are interested in an 8-year extension, rather than a bridge deal.
With the help of our good friends over at Cap Wages, we can quickly establish which contracts can be used to project Hutson’s extension. I’d like to thank Cap Wages for the help they offered. They went out of their way to answer all my questions, a rarity these days. If you get a chance, check out their site. It’s a great resource and the layout is very user-friendly. Their comparable contracts are provided by AFPanalytics.
RESOURCE: Cap Wages – NHL Salary Cap Information
Four different contracts are offered as decent comparables, though we must keep in mind it’s not an exact science. Hutson put together one of the most impressive rookie seasons in league history, which means he could command much more than his NHL counterparts.
The four names listed as good comparables: Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Owen Power, and Thomas Chabot.
It’s a nice mix of elite defencemen and high-end puck carriers.
Again, we won’t focus on how much they make per season, but rather, the cap percentage.
Makar’s deal was 10.2 percent, Hughes’ was 8.9 percent, Power landed at 9.5 percent, and Chabot settled-in at 9.1 percent.
They’re all in a similar range, which means we can quickly establish a potential percentage for a Hutson contract at 9.4 percent.
The last thing we want to keep in mind is the timing of the contract. The Canadiens can re-sign Hutson as early as July 1, but his entry-level contract will last until 2025-26, which means we have to use the projected salary cap for 2026-27, currently set at $104 million.
9.4 percent of the projected salary cap in 2026-27 is $9.77 million.
Therefore, based on the comparable deals, we can expect Lane Hutson to sign an eight-year extension that carries an AAV of $9.77 million per season. That would be more than Suzuki makes per season, but their cap percentage hits would be very similar.
If the Canadiens were to sign Hutson for the same cap percentage as Makar got in 2021-22, it would result in a contract for Hutson that carries an $10.6 million AAV.
We should note that Kent Hughes tends to convince players to sign good-value deals, which may have an impact in the upcoming contract negotiations, but given that Hutson’s statistics are generational, his penchant for saving money will likely be counterbalanced by his player’s elite potential.
WOW!
End-to-end beauty!!
It’s Lane Hutson’s world, we’re just living in it.
2-1 #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/kdPirGJei2
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) April 6, 2025
Lane Hutson is a great player and deserves to have an excellent contract. That being said on December 17 after 31 games the Canadiens were on a pace to get 71 points. Then on December 18 they acquired Alex Carrier and they immediately became a much better team. It seemed like Alex Carrier may have been more valuable this year than Lane Hutson even though Lane had an amazing season.
I think Carrier filled a very important role. Justin Barron was all offence, Alexandre Carrier is all defence, so it was an important trade to shore up the defensive zone.
But statistically speaking, there’s no comparison between the two. Hutson’s impact was miles above Carrier’s.
Carrier also struggled down the stretch, but we’re not going to blame him for that. He was absorbing huge minutes while Guhle was out, and he was paired with Matheson. Those two were given hellish minutes.
Carrier played better defense in the playoffs that’s for sure. He had a goal, an assist and +/- was 0. Hutson had 5 assists but he was -5, a liability in the back end.
The Habs had the greatest control of shots and scoring chances while Hutson was on the ice, compared to…any defenceman. It was well above 60%, and that’s great for a team that it’s usually closer to 45%.
To be fair, usage matters, and that definitely works in favour of the argument suggesting Carrier may have been better, seeing as he had the harder assignment.
I like your using the percentage of cap as a comparator. Would you think he might be open to a home discount? especially knowing how much he loves playing in Montreal. So, maybe at 9% or 8.9 bringing it closer to the 10.0M mark. Not to split hairs but the visuals might count.
I’m going to bug his agent in the near future to gauge the situation, but for now, my best answer would be… “maybe”.
Building a winner takes money, and he could leave some on the table. That being said, I never assume there’ll be a discount. If it happens, it’s a nice bonus.
I love Hutson, but we aren’t paying him Makar or Quinn Hughes money based on one rookie season… I do fully expect Lane to sign for less than Suzuki… Hughes is a master at this stuff.
For less money than Suzuki?
That would be the greatest discount in team history.
It could end up being lower in terms of cap percentage, that would be more reasonable (but still a discount).
I assume he would be in the same category of Quinn Hughes. I think he’ll sign something around 8 years 9,25 M per. I think this is more then a fair deal
I guess that fits with my prediction of 8 x $10M.
It’s crazy that we are talking about handing a rookie defenceman an 80 million dollar contract!!! What’s even crazier is that with the cap jump he will likely vastly outperform that deal.
Those darn kids today!
Yikes! 10 million for an undersized rookie? Macar just scored 30 goals. I don’t see Lane doing that. I was wrong about his stamina down the stretch and I was pleased that he held up, for five games at least, in the playoffs. But that’s an awful lot of money to commit to a defenseman who although will be very good may not ever win a Norris. I’d accept the same cap hit percentage as Suzuki, so I dislike this trend to using cap percentage.
He just had one of the best rookie season in NHL history so i dont know what you are on about. Also if he matches or surpasses his totals this year he will command even more money, lock him up now for 10m and call it a good deal.
Guess what the vast majority of players don’t ever sniff an NHL award, while this guy will already have a Calder and will probably be in the top 10 discussion for a Norris every year, does he win it though? Who knows it’s his first season I would assume if Carlson can get one anyone can.
I wouldn’t call it a trend. It’s just the standard business practice. It’s been going on for basically as long as the salary cap has been around. I’d prefer not to pay a kid $10M after 1 season as well, but that’s the way it is. If we wait another year, someone will give him an offer sheet for sure, and then we either lose the phenom or blow up the salary structure that Hughes has so deftly created this far. Giving him around $10M is kinda the happy medium unfortunately.
*Btw, my original response I posted to this article was actually referring to a conversation Marc and I had a few days ago where he had mentioned Hutson getting north of $11M (maybe $11.7?). I had stated that I’d be surprised if he got over $10M. Then this article came out with numbers closer to what I had mentioned in our conversation, hence my posting. 😁
I would think Lane’s management team looks more for a 4 year term and sees what the cap looks like in 2030. He could potentially end up a top 3 D in the league, if he manages to work on his shot.