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Montreal Canadiens Roster Talk: The Arber Xhekaj Debate

Published

3 months ago

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montreal canadiens arber xhekaj

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that fans were frustrated with the physical battles between the Montreal Canadiens and the Washington Capitals on Monday night, leading to calls from many to re-introduce rough-and-tumble defenceman Arber Xhekaj into the mix.

Throughout the regular season, the Canadiens were a top-10 team in hits, which led to almost 2000 hits, whereas the Capitals finished 23rd in the league, with roughly 1600 hits.

Before we continue discussing the physical aspect of the first-round series, we should mention that hits don’t necessarily equate to success. Teams that have great possession numbers tend to carry the puck much more often than their opponents, which mitigates the opportunities to land hits. The bottom-four teams in the league for hits are all Stanley Cup contenders: the Edmonton Oilers (32nd), the Dallas Stars (31st), the Carolina Hurricanes (30th), and the Tampa Bay Lightning (29th).

The Bigger Picture

On Monday night, the Capitals enjoyed a dominant first period that gave them the edge in hits and underlying numbers, a clear red flag as to Montreal’s approach to the series.

That narrative stuck throughout the game, but if we set emotions aside, once the initial adrenaline surge melted away from the Capitals, the Canadiens started to control the game.

This may be why Canadiens head coach Martin St-Louis was in no hurry to change his lineup. Yes, the first period was ugly, but that was to be expected for a team populated by players that have little to no playoff experience.

“I might play him,” explained St-Louis when asked about the possibility of using Xhekaj in Game 2. “I don’t know, but it’s a good option to have.”

Don’t forget, even if the Canadiens were outshot 14-7 in the first period, they ended up controlling over 54 percent of the total shots throughout the game, which is a very encouraging sign for an eighth-seed team facing the top organization in the Eastern Conference.

The high-danger chances were an issue, but things got much better following the disastrous first period. We can’t erase history, but if we focus on the second and third periods, the high-danger scoring chances were just 7-6 in favour of the Capitals.

The Arber Xhekaj Situation

We’ll discuss the physical element brought to the table by Xhekaj shortly, but for now, I would like to focus on his on-ice play.

Throughout the regular season, every single player who was paired with veteran David Savard struggled. That includes Lane Hutson, a player who ended up enjoying one of the best rookie seasons in NHL history.

If we dig a little further, it becomes clear that one particular combination worked quite well on the third pairing: Xhekaj and Jayden Struble.

In the interest of brevity, we’ll focus on the three metrics we tend to use the most on this site.

CF%, or Corsi For percentage, measures how many shots a team controls throughout a game. If there are 100 total shots, and the Habs control 51 of them, they will finish the game with a 51 percent CF%. I tend to use shot share, because it’s a much simpler term, but in this case we’ll stick with the original terms.

HDCF%, or High-Danger Corsi For percentage, measures the number of high-quality chances a team controls at any given time. It’s a lot like CF%, but it focuses on the shots that are taken close to the slot.

xGF%, or Expected Goals For percentage, is a metric that keeps a bevy of factors in mind, including the shot type, the location, and pre-shot movement.

Xhekaj, Savard, Struble

When paired together, Savard and Xhekaj struggled mightily. But the moment Xhekaj was used with Struble on the third pairing, the numbers suddenly went from well-below replacement to above-average, a significant change in the right direction.

canadiens stats

But what about when Struble played with Savard?

Well, once again, the difference is staggering compared to his results with Xhekaj. In fact, other than when Savard played with Hutson, no other regularly used pairing struggled as much as Struble and Savard. Except for when Savard played with Mike Matheson. Or Kaiden Guhle. Or…

Well, you get the point.

montreal canadiens

Food For Thought

The main reason I’d add Xhekaj to the lineup is not necessarily his physical prowess, though that is a bonus.

Statistically speaking, the Montreal  Canadiens are a much better team when he plays with Struble.

With that in mind, it’s only fair to point out Savard was far from the biggest issue in Game One. Struble had a difficult outing from a defensive perspective, as did Hutson and Matheson.

You could argue Savard’s experience came to the forefront, while many of his younger teammates desperately tried to adapt to the intensity involved in playoff games.

That’s not to say you can’t remove Savard from the lineup, but we’d be delving into intellectual dishonesty if we ignored his encouraging results from the first game of the series.

As for the physical element that comes with having Xhekaj in the lineup, there’s no (honest) argument available to suggest he would not help the Habs in that department, but he won’t single-handedly change the momentum of a game.

The Canadiens adopted a wolf pack mentality throughout the regular season, and though it took a little while to respond in Game One, they eventually took over the physical play against Washington with many players leading the charge.

In other words, simply riding Xhekaj’s coattails to physical dominance isn’t a sustainable strategy.

Every Montreal Canadiens player must row in the same direction, regardless of the personnel being used.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.

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