Canadiens Calder Trophy: The Strong Case For Lane Hutson

There are just a handful of games left in the NHL regular season, and the Calder Trophy race between Lane Hutson, Matvei Michkov, and Macklin Celebrini is about to come to an exciting end.

To get a better idea of how Hutson, Michkov, and Celebrini have fared during their rookie season, we can compare their production to every freshman season recorded by the NHL.

Before we get going, it’s important to note that all three rookies have been excellent this year. Both Michkov and Celebrini have scored many more goals than Hutson, which is worth keeping in mind. It should also be noted that Celebrini will end up playing fewer games than his rookie counterparts, and he’s younger, at just 18 years old, but neither factor should have an impact on the Calder Trophy votes. They’re all rookies, and they all had 82 games on the schedule at the beginning of the season.

The goal here is not to denigrate any player, but rather give everyone a little historical context to properly judge which player is worthy of the 2025 Calder Trophy, awarded to the best rookie in the NHL.

2025 NHL Calder Trophy Race

According to NHL.com, there have been 3758 rookie seasons from defencemen, and 7764 rookie seasons from forwards. That includes every player who played at least one game, which means there’s some white noise in play, however, they have roughly two forward seasons on file for every defenceman, lining up nicely with the typical six defenceman, 12 forward lineups we see in the NHL.

As it stands, Lane Hutson is on pace to score six goals and 63 assists, (69 points).

Celebrini is on pace for 24 goals and 36 assists (60 points).

Michkov is on pace for 26 goals and 37 assists (63 points).

If Hutson maintains his scoring pace, his 69 points will be the third-best result in NHL history, trailing only Larry Murphy (76 pts) and Brian Leetch (71 pts), two Hockey Hall of Fame inductees.

This means that Hutson is on pace to outscore 99.92 percent of all defenceman rookie seasons in the history of the NHL.

As for Celebrini, his 60 points would rank 115th all-time among rookie forwards, whereas Michkov’s 63 points would be slightly higher, at 88th all-time. Both players would be tied with several other prospects who enjoyed solid rookie years, but that doesn’t particularly matter.

is that good? pic.twitter.com/fu2Mr6jXNQ

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) April 2, 2025

Advanced Analysis

There’s more to hockey than just scoring points, and while that tends to be the driving factor for the Calder Trophy votes, it would be disingenuous to ignore the underlying numbers powering the production.

To do this in a reasonable time frame, we’ll turn to Evolving Wild‘s player cards, which keep a bevy of factors in mind, including even-strength play, powerplay and shorthanded usage, based on their goals above replacement (GAR) and expected goals above replacement (xGAR). For a detailed explanation regarding GAR, please visit Evolving Wild’s glossary. You can also consider subscribing to their website, as they offer a great product that is easy to digest.

As you can see in the three charts embedded below, Michkov, Celebrini, and Hutson are all enjoying solid seasons, but there’s no doubt Hutson’s overall performance is the most impressive of the bunch.

Calder Trophy Brass Tacks

There’s clearly work to be done on Hutson’s defensive play, but that’s an issue that has improved by leaps and bounds in recent months. Truth be told, the only negative results for Hutson were produced alongside David Savard, and even if that situation will never repeat, we can’t erase those games from history.

ON TOPIC: Canadiens Mythbusting – Evaluating Lane Hutson’s Defensive Impact

Regardless, his early-season issues pale in comparison with his impressive offensive impact, confirming that the good clearly outweighs the bad.

If you only pay attention to bad plays, you’ll have a skewed grasp on reality, but that’s not new when discussing puck-moving defencemen, just ask Quinn Hughes how some described him early in his career.

There’s absolutely no doubt both Matvei Michkov and Macklin Celebrini are enjoying great rookie campaigns. When it’s all said and done, they’ll rank fairly well compared to other rookies.

Lane Hutson, on the other hand, isn’t just having an above-average rookie season. He is on pace to enjoy one of the best rookie seasons from a defenceman in league history, and the underlying numbers confirm he makes a greater positive impact than his Calder Trophy competition.

There’s also possibility goaltender Dustin Wolf receives some consideration, as he’s giving the Calgary Flames some hope with his excellent .909 save percentage.

But again, just like Michkov and Celebrini, Wolf has been good, but he is not having one of the best rookie seasons for a player in his position.

Only Lane Hutson can claim such a feat, connoting he should probably be the clear-cut front-runner for the 2025 Calder Trophy. He makes his team better, he makes his teammates better, and no other rookie comes remotely close to matching his impact on a daily basis.