Canadiens Playoff Hopes: Honest Analysis Of Montreal’s Chances

The Montreal Canadiens are still in the playoff race, but thanks to Saturday’s 1-0 loss to the Calgary Flames, there’s almost no margin of error left.

In this article, we will discuss the remaining schedule, the strength of said schedule, other teams vying for the same playoff spots, and most importantly, the realistic chances the Habs will end up qualifying for the playoffs.

Rather than painting the picture and then hitting you with the number, we’re going to flip the script a little, because Habs fans are well aware the team is not in an ideal situation in regard to springtime hockey, and this isn’t their first rodeo.

Various outlets will present different odds, but as it stands, most agree the team’s playoff chances are in the vicinity of 10 percent. There are some more encouraging outlets that will pin the team’s hopes at a little over 20 percent, but suffice it to say, the Canadiens do not control their playoff destiny at this exact moment.

Broader Eastern Conference Picture

There are 19 games left in the Canadiens’ season, but as we know, not all opponents are created equally. From here on end, the strength of schedule (SOS) will pay an important role, not just for the Habs, but for all teams hoping to extend their season beyond 82 games.

To give you a good example of how the SOS impacts playoff odds, we need not look further than Detroit. The Red Wings are currently tied with the Montreal Canadiens, as both teams have banked 66 points in 63 games.

However, the Canadiens have a much easier SOS compared to their American counterparts.

In fact, the Red Wings have the most difficult strength of schedule to close out the 2024-25 season, whereas the Habs are a mid-pack team (18th). This difference has led some outlets to suggest the Canadiens’ playoff odds are two times healthier than the Red Wings’ (22 percent vs. 11 percent).

This is where things get even more interesting. The New York Islanders and the New York Rangers, two other teams fighting with the Canadiens for the last Wild Card spot, have the third and fourth-most difficult remaining SOS, giving the Canadiens an important edge at a time when any advantage is worth exploiting.

via Tankathon.com

As for the Ottawa Senators, they have a very easy SOS, among the easiest in the league (28th), a key reason why they’re almost considered a lock to make the playoffs (in the 75 percent range), even if they’re just three points ahead of the Habs, with one game in hand.

Of course, things can change in a hurry, especially since the Canadiens and Senators are set to face each other twice before the end of the 2024-25 campaign, on March 18 and April 11. It’s not as simple as saying the Habs absolutely have no choice but to win both games in regulation if they want to make the playoffs, but, well, the Habs absolutely have no choice but to win both games in regulation if they want a legitimate chance to make the playoffs.

The last time these two teams met, the Habs enjoyed a key 5-2 win in a rather violent outing, an exploit they’ll have to repeat at least twice between now and the end of the year. Well, not the violence part, necessarily, but an aggressive approach against a hungry opponent can often set the tone in important matchups.

The Senators aren’t the only team the Habs are chasing. The Columbus Blue Jackets may be ahead of Ottawa in the current playoff race, but I’d wager they’re a much more vulnerable opponent. They have a very difficult strength of schedule (7th), and their playoff odds are pegged at just 32 percent on outlets such as Money Puck.

Canadiens Remaining Schedule

Of the 19 remaining games on the Montreal Canadiens schedule, nine will be against teams that are currently in the playoffs. The Habs will face the Florida Panthers (x3), the Ottawa Senators (x2), the Colorado Avalanche, the Carolina Hurricanes (x2), and the Toronto Maple Leafs, which means they won’t just have to beat playoff teams to improve their odds, they’ll have to do it multiple times against the same teams if playoff hockey is in the cards.

Beyond the games versus Ottawa, the three matchups against the Panthers carry significant playoff implications for the Habs. It won’t be easy, but those are essentially ‘must win’ games for the Habs. You could argue all the remaining games qualify as ‘must win’, and you’d be right, but there’s no way the Habs will make the playoffs if they lose all three games against Florida.

The good news is the Canadiens beat the Panthers 4-0 in their only meeting this season, a game that happened to be Jakub Dobes’ NHL debut. The bad news is that maintaining a perfect record against the defending Stanley Cup champions will be incredibly difficult, however, if Martin St-Louis’ team does manage to defy the odds, they will bolster their playoff hopes by leaps and bounds.

Montreal may even get a lucky break if some of the playoff teams decide to rest their best players in the final games of the year, but depending on other teams is not a strategy by any means, therefore they should prepare to face the best possible lineup every night.

The teams set to face the Canadiens that are currently outside the playoff race are as follows; the Vancouver Canucks, the Seattle Kraken, the New York Islanders, the St-Louis Blues, the Philadelphia Flyers (x2), the Boston Bruins, the Nashville Predators, the Detroit Red Wings, and the Chicago Blackhawks.

It’s one of the reasons the Montreal Canadiens have an easier SOS than many of the other teams vying for a Wild Card spot. They do have a fairly easy schedule when it comes to non-playoff opponents. That being said, many of the teams, including the Canucks and the Blues, are still very much in the Western Conference playoff race, connoting they do not project to be an easy opponent.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

If you’ve skipped to the bottom of the article, hoping to avoid a 1000-word explanation behind what’s powering the Canadiens’ low playoff odds, you’re in luck.

Simply put, the Habs have very poor odds of making the playoffs. Money Puck currently suggests the team is at just 9 percent.

The Canadiens have 19 games left, with a little less than half of them against current playoff teams. The key games will take place against the Senators (x2), as well as the Florida Panthers (x3), but if we’re being honest, every single game can qualify as a key matchup from here on end.