Canadiens Analysis
Habs Analysis: Kaiden Guhle Injury Leads To Surprising Results
When Montreal Canadiens defenceman Kaiden Guhle was forced to miss the remainder of the season with a serious laceration on his leg, many assumed the team was in for a very rough ride down the final stretch of the year.
The assumption was rooted in logic, as Guhle absorbs an unreasonable amount of ice time for a team that struggles from a defensive standpoint.
Now that he’s been held out of action for eight games, we have a much better understanding of how the Canadiens have played without the 23-year-old defenceman. At the risk of borrowing a sentence from clickbait artists, the results are quite surprising to say the least.
Team Impact
Before we get going, it’s important to remember that we’re dealing with different sample sizes. Data analysis was invented for this very purpose, using smaller samples to project future developments, however, I still feel the need to remind everyone that there’s a significant discrepancy in the available data, as the Canadiens played 44 games with Guhle, and just eight without.
That being said, the eight games without him have produced some very encouraging results for the team.
With Guhle in the lineup, the Habs managed to control a little more than 48 percent of the shots (25th), 46.4 percent of the expected goals (27th), and 45 percent of the high-danger scoring chances (29th).
Without Guhle in the lineup, the Habs have controlled 50.2 percent of the shots (13th), 52.7 percent of the expected goals (8th), and 55 percent of the high-danger scoring chances (8th).
The uptick in high-danger scoring chances is particularly interesting, as it’s one area in which the Habs have struggled since Martin St-Louis took over as head coach.
There are other factors to consider beyond Guhle’s absence, and I don’t want to give anyone the impression that Guhle was the lone player dragging the team down when he was healthy, but there’s no denying the shocking disparity in results.
Individual Impact
Almost every defenceman has enjoyed an uptick in possession stats since Guhle’s injury. The only player whose shot share numbers declined is Alexandre Carrier, though we expected his fantastic stats to normalize at some point.
Both Lane Hutson and Jayden Struble are controlling over 55 percent of the shots in the last eight games, while Mike Matheson finally made it to the positive side of 50 percent without Guhle in the mix. Both Hutson and Struble have also controlled over 60 percent of the expected goals, yet another impressive improvement. Believe it or not, Hutson is playing less often at 5v5, with the bulk of Guhle’s minutes being absorbed by Carrier.
Even the bottom pairing of Arber Xhekaj and David Savard improved, which is quite a feat when you consider Savard’s stats tend to be well below-replacement.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
So, are the Canadiens really a better team without Guhle?
Statistically speaking, yes, they have been a better team in the last eight games, with important improvements in key areas.
But we need to keep Carrier’s numbers in mind, as he’s starting to suffer the same fate as Guhle, which includes very difficult assignments, almost unlimited ice time, and consequently, fairly ugly underlying numbers.
With Guhle in the lineup, Carrier controlled over 51 percent of the shots, scoring chances, and expected goals. Without Guhle there to absorb the most difficult minutes, Carrier has only controlled less than 47 percent of the shots, scoring chances, and expected goals.
It’s a testament to Guhle’s usage in the NHL, the hockey equivalent of dipping someone in delicious barbecue sauce before throwing them to the wolves. Not only does he play against the best opponents, he’s often forced to perform on his offside, which, in turn, makes everything much more difficult. Puck retrievals and zone exits, in particular, suffer when a defenceman tends to have the puck on his backhand.
However, there’s no denying Guhle is yet to reach the point where the underlying numbers would suggest he has what it takes to be a No.1 defenceman in the NHL, and the last stretch of games does indeed confirm that losing him to injury did not result in a death knell for the Montreal Canadiens, as many predicted.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
Perfect timing. We have 2 amazing games and the numbers all of a sudden indicate what you wanted to promote. If you look at the 6 games before 4 Nations Face Off, you’d have a different result and this article wouldn’t work. Here’s to hoping we continue to build positively as a team.
It included the six games before the 4 Nations Faceoff.
And I clearly mentioned it’s an 8 game sample size, which isn’t ideal,
I get what you’re attempting to say, that I’m manipulating the numbers, but Guhle’s stats have been rather terrible since the very moment he entered the league. A lot of that has to do with his usage, as explained above, but it’s also impossible to ignore. I’ve written about it many times.
So, no tinfoil needed here. I’d argue that glossing over the facts would be a lot more manipulative, but to each their own.
I’d be curious to see the numbers minus those 2 games. Do they paint the same picture you’re providing? I doubt it. That’s why I’m saying it’s convenient timing. We have 2 amazing games, the numbers spike in the opposite direction and now the article comes out. I’m not saying you’re completely wrong. I’m saying the truth is closer to the middle. If you had taken the 10 game stretch just before his injury (our win streak), you’d probably be saying just how important he was to the team because that’s what the numbers would say.
That’s why small sample sizes come with such a huge caveat. When there’s a spike in them, it heavily influences the message.
Odd. My response to you was deleted. Not sure if I said something you disagreed with or if it just didn’t go through.
Great observations as usual Marc. I also love your click bait jab. There’s one podcast in particular that ALWAYS has a sensational title that shows no shame. Kids these days.
One thing that I would add is that sometimes, injuries bring out the best in teams. For example, whenever Austin Matthews is out of Toronto’s lineup, the forwards pick up the slack and the team chugs along nicely. I believe the same is happening to Montreal’s defense.
The young core was forced to improve with the trades of Harris and Kovacevic. Management forced some bleeding to make this happen. What’s happening now is a good sign of the defence’s maturity.
When Ghule returns, the overall burden on the defensive core will lighten. Ghule himself will also have to work less hard and thus be 1) better, 2) less fatigued and 3) perhaps less prone to injury.
Well said as usual Marc. Perhaps as well, this injury is forcing Montreal’s emerging D to pick up the slack. It may be accelerating their development much like the trading of Harris and Kovecivic (pardon my spelling- it’s probably wrong). In the long term, this should alleviate some of Guhle’s workload and make him a better player. It may reduce his fatigue level and reduce his odds of being injured.
So lets see…
He’s been overworked and is playing at a higher level (line) than his play warrants right now.
In essence, he’s being “forced” onto the top D line because, well, nobody else not named Hutson is good enough to play there now.
Gee, how many times in the past 10 years or so have we seen a Habs skater on a line too high up, and that player suffered because of this move?
Not saying Guhle isn’t good. He is. Very good. If he amounts to a great 2nd line Dman going forward, that’s great. But it calls to attention that, other than Hutson, no other Habs is currently deserving of playing on the top line with him. Even Matheson should play on a 2nd line right now.
So unless the Habs make a bigtime trade at the TDL, or sign a bigtime top line Dman in the offseason, or draft one high up and he immediately comes in like Lane and “takes over”…it looks like its Reinbacher or bust herein for next season.
Crosby and karlsson/letang(?) for Matheson , Dach , Newhook and 1st round pick. Are either letang or karlsson 1st pair Dman?
Do we have to keep all the players? If not, I grab Crosby and then do an open auction on the trade market. Let’s get crazy.
What do you mean ? I was trying to solve a top pair Dman problem as well as move the Matheson , the second pair Dman. Who would you want to add from another team (instead of taking letang or karlsson ) to play defence if pens would take that offer and we just took Crosby?
You have no idea of what you talking about – their record without him is worse – the only stat that counts is the won-lost record.