Habs Analysis: Kaiden Guhle Injury Leads To Surprising Results

When Montreal Canadiens defenceman Kaiden Guhle was forced to miss the remainder of the season with a serious laceration on his leg, many assumed the team was in for a very rough ride down the final stretch of the year.

The assumption was rooted in logic, as Guhle absorbs an unreasonable amount of ice time for a team that struggles from a defensive standpoint.

Now that he’s been held out of action for eight games, we have a much better understanding of how the Canadiens have played without the 23-year-old defenceman. At the risk of borrowing a sentence from clickbait artists, the results are quite surprising to say the least.

Team Impact

Before we get going, it’s important to remember that we’re dealing with different sample sizes. Data analysis was invented for this very purpose, using smaller samples to project future developments, however, I still feel the need to remind everyone that there’s a significant discrepancy in the available data, as the Canadiens played 44 games with Guhle, and just eight without.

That being said, the eight games without him have produced some very encouraging results for the team.

With Guhle in the lineup, the Habs managed to control a little more than 48 percent of the shots (25th), 46.4 percent of the expected goals (27th), and 45 percent of the high-danger scoring chances (29th).

Without Guhle in the lineup, the Habs have controlled 50.2 percent of the shots (13th), 52.7 percent of the expected goals (8th), and 55 percent of the high-danger scoring chances (8th).

The uptick in high-danger scoring chances is particularly interesting, as it’s one area in which the Habs have struggled since Martin St-Louis took over as head coach.

There are other factors to consider beyond Guhle’s absence, and I don’t want to give anyone the impression that Guhle was the lone player dragging the team down when he was healthy, but there’s no denying the shocking disparity in results.

Individual Impact

Almost every defenceman has enjoyed an uptick in possession stats since Guhle’s injury. The only player whose shot share numbers declined is Alexandre Carrier, though we expected his fantastic stats to normalize at some point.

Both Lane Hutson and Jayden Struble are controlling over 55 percent of the shots in the last eight games, while Mike Matheson finally made it to the positive side of 50 percent without Guhle in the mix. Both Hutson and Struble have also controlled over 60 percent of the expected goals, yet another impressive improvement. Believe it or not, Hutson is playing less often at 5v5, with the bulk of Guhle’s minutes being absorbed by Carrier.

Even the bottom pairing of Arber Xhekaj and David Savard improved, which is quite a feat when you consider Savard’s stats tend to be well below-replacement.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

So, are the Canadiens really a better team without Guhle?

Statistically speaking, yes, they have been a better team in the last eight games, with important improvements in key areas.

But we need to keep Carrier’s numbers in mind, as he’s starting to suffer the same fate as Guhle, which includes very difficult assignments, almost unlimited ice time, and consequently, fairly ugly underlying numbers.

With Guhle in the lineup, Carrier controlled over 51 percent of the shots, scoring chances, and expected goals. Without Guhle there to absorb the most difficult minutes, Carrier has only controlled less than 47 percent of the shots, scoring chances, and expected goals.

It’s a testament to Guhle’s usage in the NHL, the hockey equivalent of dipping someone in delicious barbecue sauce before throwing them to the wolves. Not only does he play against the best opponents, he’s often forced to perform on his offside, which, in turn, makes everything much more difficult. Puck retrievals and zone exits, in particular, suffer when a defenceman tends to have the puck on his backhand.

However, there’s no denying Guhle is yet to reach the point where the underlying numbers would suggest he has what it takes to be a No.1 defenceman in the NHL, and the last stretch of games does indeed confirm that losing him to injury did not result in a death knell for the Montreal Canadiens, as many predicted.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.