Montreal Canadiens Analysis: Evaluating Dobes And Montembeault

The Montreal Canadiens have an interesting situation developing between veteran netminder Samuel Montembeault and his 23-year-old counterpart, Jakub Dobes.

It’s only natural for fans to prefer one athlete to the other, especially when the prevailing narrative uses the term ‘problem’, as in the Canadiens currently have a goaltending problem due to Dobes’ excellent play as a rookie.

I’d argue it’s not a problem.

Or if it is, it’s a great problem to have in a salary-cap world.

Montembeault sera devant le filet samedi, tandis que Dobes obtiendra le départ dimanche

Montembeault will be in net on Saturday, while Dobes will get the start on Sunday#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/ufVhuDZ1e8

— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) February 7, 2025

After all, we’re not discussing a declining 35-year-old player being pushed out by an upstart rookie.

Montembeault, 28, spent several years as the most valuable Canadiens player from a statistical standpoint, and though his numbers have suffered a slight dip this season, he still has the ability to help the team win games down the final stretch of the season.

With that in mind, we’ll take a look at how both goaltenders have performed this season, while focusing on their strengths, as to establish a better understanding of what they bring to the table for the organization.

Montreal Canadiens Goaltender Statistics

It’s inherently difficult to compare goaltenders, especially since the playing field is far from even. For example, Dobes has to deal with playing the second leg of back-to-back games, just as he is scheduled to do on Sunday versus the Tampa Bay Lightning. Montembeault, on the other hand, will play behind a fresh team on Saturday when Habs face the New Jersey Devils.

There’s also the matter of their opponents. Dobes has faced a higher level of competition this year, as evidenced by the murderer’s row of former Stanley Cup winners he defeated to start his career.

Such is life as a goaltender, especially life as a backup goaltender.

To get a better idea of how both players have performed, we will analyze their statistics based on ice time (per 60 minutes TOI 5v5). It’s not a perfect solution, but at the very least we can bridge the gap when it comes to the available data. There are some of the metrics, such as save percentage, which will not be based on ice time.

Dobes and Montembeault Analysis

Both goalies face a lot of shots, but Dobes has had the busier workload this season, though not by a significant margin. The difference in save percentages, however, is fairly drastic.

Dobes’ .924 save percentage during 5v5 play is the 15th best result among goaltenders who have at least 100 minutes of ice time this season, while Montembeault’s .903 is 59th.

Consequently, Dobes’ GSAA (goals saved above average) is much higher than Montembeault’s.

High-Danger Goaltending Statistics

Not all shots are created equal, which is why focusing on high-danger chances tends to reveal which goaltender has done best when the going gets tough.

As you can see, Montembeault faces two extra high-danger shots against per 60 minutes of ice time, which is a considerable uptick. However, Dobes has done a much better job when it comes to stopping those high-danger chances, as evidenced by his high-danger save percentage (HD SV%) and the high-danger goals saved above average (HDGSAA).

Considering the Canadiens have struggled to control quality chances for roughly half a decade now, Dobes’ ability to make important saves in difficult situations is a major boon for the organization.

Montembeault deals with a lot more rush attempts than Dobes, though Dobes has been called-upon to deal with second-chance scoring opportunities with more regularity.

They both deal with shots from roughly the same average distance, though Montembeault’s average shot distance is a little closer.

The biggest difference is their average goal allowed distance (feet). Opposing players are scoring from a little over 20 feet out versus Montembeault, while Dobes’ average allowed goal is five feet further out.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Now that Dobes’ statistics have normalized due to a larger sample size, we can start to suggest that he has, for the most part, been the better goaltender this season. Of course, he’s featured in just 520 minutes of 5v5 ice time, while Montembeault’s is closer to 2200 minutes.

This means Monembeault’s stats are unlikely to change much between now and the end of the season, whereas Dobes’ stats are at risk of changing significantly the next time he takes to the ice. A terrible outing could easily tank his stats.

We have to remember Dobes has enjoyed having stalwart defender Alexandre Carrier in front of him for every start, while that was not the case for Montembeault for the majority of the season. The team has also performed better whenever Dobes is tapped as the starter, though confidence in a goaltender goes a long way in dictating how a team will play on any given night.

All things considered, Montembeault has been fairly good this year.

However, it’s quite clear Dobes has been much better.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.