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Canadiens Analysis

How The Alex Carrier Trade Improved Lane Hutson Stats On Top Pairing

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The Montreal Canadiens roster is a puzzle that’s coming together nicely, as evidenced by the fact that they’re among the hottest teams in the NHL. And while most will point to the addition of Alexandre Carrier as the key reason why the Canadiens are a better team this year, he is but one (important) piece of the puzzle. Adding Lane Hutson to the mix was another key piece, but once again, we must recognize his presence built-upon the foundation of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield that was already in place.



That being said, trading for Carrier did give head coach Martin St-Louis more options on the back-end, not to mention a stabilizing presence on what is usually a very chaotic blue line.

Before And After Carrier (5 vs 5)

Carrier has been a member of the Montreal Canadiens for 16 games now, and while there have been some ebbs and flows when it comes to the results produced by the second pairing, which also features Kaiden Guhle, the overall change in stats at 5-on-5 since the trade has been jaw-dropping to say the least.

Prior to the trade with the Nashville Predators, the Habs ranked 28th in shot share (CF%), 30th in expected goals (xGF%), and 30th in high-danger chances (HDCF%).

Since the trade, the Canadiens have maintained an impressive 52.2 percent share of the shots, good for eighth in the league. They’ve also improved their expected goals and high-danger chances by leaps and bounds, though there’s still a lot of work left to be done for the latter.

montreal canadiens alexandre carrier

One day, the Habs will manage to be a top-16 team when it comes to their share of high-quality scoring chances, but for now it’s still their Moby Dick.

Regardless, even their greatest area of weakness enjoyed a significant uptick in stats following the trade, and that, my friends, is quite encouraging.

Lane Hutson and Mike Matheson On The Top Pairing

As we touched upon in the introduction, Carrier’s presence has helped the team because he offers a crucial stabilizing element to St-Louis, but it’s actually been the play of the top pairing, featuring Hutson and Mike Matheson, that has impressed the most since the trade.

And before anyone assumes it’s simply because Hutson is carrying Matheson, I’d like to suggest that the pairing is a good fit. Matheson is playing on his offside, which allows Hutson to develop and evolve on his natural side, and the stats clearly back up the notion that the two mobile defencemen play well together.

I know many have soured on Matheson this year, but we should avoid stepping on his body to prop up Hutson, as it’s not necessary. The Habs are a better team with both players in the mix, and once you see the numbers, I am sure you will agree.

Since the Carrier trade, Hutson and Matheson have managed to control 58 percent of the shots (CF%), 55.3 percent of the expected goals (xGF%), and 54.5 percent of the high-danger scoring chances (HDCF%).

Those aren’t just good numbers, they’re legitimate top pairing stats.

For the record, Carrier and Guhle have controlled 52.7 percent of the shots, 55 percent of the expected goals, and 50.6 percent of the high-danger chances, which is also quite good.

To get a better idea of how well Hutson and Matheson play together, we can take a look at their numbers when playing with another defensive partner in 2024-25. These stats will include the results prior to Carrier’s arrival, which is why you’ll note a slight drop in stats from the Matheson/Hutson pairing.

montreal canadiens defensive partners

Some of it has to do with Carrier and Guhle facing a heightened level of competition on the second pairing, and we should also point out some defensive partners, such as David Savard, are a significant drag on underlying results. That’s currently the case on the third pairing, where Savard plays alongside Arber Xhekaj.

But there’s no way around it. Both Mike Matheson and Lane Hutson have enjoyed their best outings while playing together, a situation that was made possible by the brilliant trade for Carrier in mid-December.


All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.  Editor’s note: The topic of Alexandre Carrier’s impact was previously discussed in December, however, we’re dealing with a sample size that’s three times bigger at this point, which is why we revisited the subject.

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Bill simmomds

Great trade go habs go.

Tyrone

I wasn’t a fan of trading a much younger, bigger and cheaper prospect for Carrier at the time of the trade, but I’ve definitely been won over. I just wish we still had Kovacevic. Giving him away for essentially nothing, to make room for Barron, only to part ways with Barron a few months later, is always going to be a bummer for me.

jb1565

I know making the playoffs would be nice but it’s not as important as continuing the rebuild The next order of business should be trading Savard for futures and give Struble the minutes needed to develop. If he fails the test then audition the top prospects in Laval to determine who’s ready to make the jump.