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Canadiens Trends: Which Forwards Are Scoring More Often

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Montreal Canadiens

The Montreal Canadiens are enjoying quite a surge in the standings, and thanks to another display of team-wide resilience against the New York Rangers on Sunday night, they are now in the mix for a Wild Card spot, putting a potential playoff berth on the line.



Martin St-Louis’ team has seen an uptick in both offensive and defensive results, a necessary step if the Canadiens are to take the next step in the rebuild and eventually become a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

To get a better idea of which players have contributed more from an offensive standpoint, we’ll evaluate the current scoring paces (points per 60 at 5v5) from the forwards compared to how well they produced in 2023-24. Percentages are represented by two colours, with red serving as a signal that the player’s production has decreased this season.

Montreal Canadiens Top Line Success

Much of the improvements have taken place on the first line, though it’s not captain Nick Suzuki who has enjoyed the greatest increase in scoring. That honour belongs to Cole Caufield, who is registering his name on the scoresheet almost 60 percent more often at 5v5.

Of course, there are other factors in play than just scoring. Suzuki is given more ice time at 5v5 since he has different responsibilities, thus lowering his points-per-60 when he’s dealing with a defence-first situation.

But even when we consider usage, Caufield’s increase in scoring is clearly worthy of praise.

The key to his success? He’s scoring a ton of goals at 5v5. As it stands, only two players (including Alex Ovechkin) have produced more goals per 60 at 5v5 than Caufield, and he leads all NHLers in raw numbers, with 17 goals. In other words, Caufield is one of the best goalscorers in the league at 5v5, and we have the numbers to back it up.

As for Slafkovsky, he’s lagging behind when compared to his linemates, but he’s still seen an uptick in scoring this season despite all the criticism sent his way. His goal scoring is down, but he’s doubled the number of primary assists per 60 he registers at 5v5.

MUST READ: Montreal Canadiens Mythbusting – Juraj Slafkovsky Edition

first line montreal canadiens stats

Second Line Work To Be Done

As expected, things aren’t as rosy on the second line. Both Kirby Dach and Patrik Laine missed significant time last year, while Alex Newhook started the season by taking a big step backwards from an offensive production standpoint.

Truth be told, Newhook’s 46 percent decrease in scoring isn’t just due to his lowered production this year, but rather, a strong production rate last season, which saw him produce more points at 5v5 than any other player except Joshua Roy. He’s still scoring more often than both his linemates, but there’s no ignoring that he represents the biggest decrease in scoring among all Canadiens forwards this season.

Fortunately, the line has started to find its rhythm in recent games, as evidenced by a significant improvement in goals scored at 5v5, especially via Dach.

By isolating 5v5 play, we obviously lose Laine’s incredible powerplay production, which is why I should mention he went from 2.3 points per 60 on the powerplay last season with the Columbus Blue Jackets, to 11.4 points per 60 with the Canadiens. That represents almost a 400 percent increase in year-to-year powerplay production. It’s always sketchy to compare numbers from different teams, but suffice it to say Laine has been a remarkable boon on the powerplay.

second line montreal canadiens stats

 Third Line Value

Most of the attention is given to the top six, and for good reason, but a solid bottom-six is often the difference between a one-goal loss and an impressive comeback victory.

That’s why St-Louis has avoided making any changes to his third line, which features three veterans attempting to extend their time in the NHL via a strong season while dealing with limited ice time.

Josh Anderson is probably the best example of a veteran adapting his game to a new reality. His poor production last season is a significant factor in his improved production rate, which ranks first among all players with a 64 percent uptick in scoring, however, he also went from the least productive regularly used forward to the middle of the pack, an encouraging sign to say the least.

Christian Dvorak also enjoyed an uptick in scoring, while Brendan Gallagher is scoring a little less, but it’s worth noting that Gallagher is still the most productive player on that line when evaluating points per 60. Simply put, Gallagher started playing much better in the second half of 2023-24, while Dvorak and Anderson only found their rhythm this season.


third line montreal canadiens stats

Fourth-Line Prowess

One of the major storylines this season has been the play of the fourth line, which did more than its fair share of scoring when the team needed it most. It was the fourth line that drove the play in many games during the team’s resurgence in December, and though we shouldn’t expect them to keep it up all season, Jake Evans, Emil Heineman, and Joel Armia deserve plenty of credit for their strong work in a limited role.

Seeing as Heineman did not register a point at 5v5 during his four games last season, we can’t actually calculate how much he’s improved via percentage. No percentage increase from zero will result in anything other than zero, but we can point out that he’s fourth on the team in terms of points per 60 at 5v5, trailing only Caufield, Suzuki, and Slafkovsky.

ON TOPIC: Montreal Canadiens Analysis – Jake Evans Contract And Trade Situation

Evans has been a big part of the fourth-line’s success, though his ridiculously high shooting percentage has dropped significantly in recent games, which, in turn, has lowered his points per 60.

He’s still playing well, and he’s enjoying a great season, but the downtick in points was to be expected, because his scoring rate to start the season was simply not sustainable.


All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.

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Dana

I’m curious about the application of this data as management. Do you shuffle lines, adjust ice times, use it in contract negotiations or for targeting players in trades?

I see line 4 should be reversed with line 2 based on this metric but that wouldn’t actually work well for the team. So what is the value and application?

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