Canadiens In Unique Spot Heading Into NHL Trade Deadline

The Montreal Canadiens have a plan and it looks like they’re going to be sticking to it, no matter where they are in the standings.

Despite playing well above their expected finish, at least according to NHL betting odds, the Canadiens are still very much in a rebuild, with the best still yet to come.

If Matvei Michkov‘s performances for Philadelphia are any indication, young phenom, Ivan Demidov, is likely to come in next season and shake things up even further.

This all while youngsters like Lane Hutson, Kaiden Guhle, Emil Heineman, Owen Beck, Jakub Dobes and more continue to develop on the main roster over the next 12 months.

But they’re still not quite there yet, as their quality depth at centre and on the right side of their defense, the two hardest positions to fill in hockey are still under league average.

The Canadiens are aware of this, and want to accumulate more assets in order to perform those big trades this summer, with so much money coming off the books. However, based on chatter across the league, they aren’t looking to speed up or later their planning as it pertains to their pending free agents.

It’s a trap that the Nashville Predators fell into last season that could easily become the fate of the Canadiens if they mismanage the next few months.

Why The Montreal Canadiens Should Avoid The Nashville Predators’ Deadline Strategy

The Montreal Canadiens are currently chasing a playoff spot.

If that were to happen, it would be great news for the Canadiens, but not a sign that they should hold onto every player in hopes of a strong playoff run.

Getting the young core a taste of the NHL playoffs would be a bonus, but that shouldn’t come at the expense of their rebuild; a part of their plan GM Kent Hughes has mentioned he wanted to stick to.

The Nashville Predators were in the same predicament last season, where they had a significant amount of pending free-agents on the roster that needed to be either signed or traded, while holding down a playoff spot.

They chose to forgo trading Tommy Novak and Alex Carrier, signing both to three-year deals, but ultimately chose to move Yakov Trenin.

One year later, they ended up trading Carrier for Justin Barron; a deal that looks pretty lopsided at the moment, given Carrier’s underlying numbers. The Predators have also been reported to be making Novak available on the trade market, as they look to improve their depth down the middle in their top 6.

Both players could have returned significant hauls at last year’s trade deadline, with returns going as high as 1st or 2nd round picks.

Instead, Nashville sought to hold onto their pending free agents, and even add the likes of Anthony Beauvillier and Jason Zucker to their lineup; en route to a 1st-round exit.

Taking this surprising success as a sign of things to come, and not a circumstance of an abnormally weak Western Conference, GM Barry Trotz went on a spending spree during the 2024 offseason and completely shellacked the Predators’ team chemistry.

Now, they’re capped out, NHL GMs are waiting for them to make a (another) mistake, and they’ll have to pay through the nose to fix their situation this season.

Weighing The Pros and Cons

The Canadiens find themselves in a bit of a better situation from Nashville, as most of their core is young and locked in long-term.

Like Nashville last season, Montreal has a few pending free-agents that are peaking right as their contracts end, like Jake Evans, Joel Armia and, to a lesser extent, David Savard.

They currently find themselves knocking on the door of a playoff berth after pulling themselves out of last place in the NHL standings not two months ago.

But, unless Jake Evans is willing to sign a hometown discount on the long-term for under $3.5M, or a top defenceman sustains a major injury, then Evans and Savard will likely get a ton of attention come NHL Trade Deadline; and the Canadiens will likely be listening in.

Evans has been one of the biggest surprises in the NHL this season. After posting 28 points last season, just one point shy of his career best 29 points, Evans is on pace to score over 50 points this season, while being one of the top penalty-killers in the game.

This, on top of being a right-shot centre; one of the rarest commodities in the NHL.

The more he continues to play well, the better the chances of him not only asking for more money become, but also the more this value will increase; potentially bringing in a 1st-round pick.

For a player like David Savard, who is 34 and in the final years of a solid career, maximizing his value now, especially after the Carrier trade, would be wise. But Evans is an entirely different animal, as he’s in his prime at 28 years old.

But, despite his offensive coming out party, Evans’ offence doesn’t look to be particularly sustainable on the long-term, as he’s currently scoring at a 28.3% success rate; which is well above the league average of 12-13%. It means that he’s likely due to regress back down to 30-35 points as soon as next season.

Evans would be in his right to ask for upwards of $4M, given his season and contract comparables across the league; however, Renaud Lavoie reports that both sides are interested in getting a deal done. That likely means that a more team-friendly deal is coming, as Evans is looking to stay in Montreal.

That changes the dynamic.

Montreal Canadiens Biding Their Time

Evans and Savard, who both currently occupy bottom-six/bottom-pair roles, could likely get premium assets to improve clear positions of need down the line (Number 2 centre, top-pair/Top-4 Right-shot defenceman), which could be just as valuable as retaining them.

What makes this process even more interesting is that the organization has not yet begun significant contract talks with either camp as of the writing of this article, despite the Canadiens and Evans having mutual interest to talk contract. It would seem like they too are waiting to weigh the pros and cons of the market, like last season with Sean Monahan and David Savard.

They were able to extract a 1st-round pick from the Winnipeg Jets for Monahan and jumped at the opportunity, while setting a price for Savard and choosing to hold onto him when teams balked at the extra year on his contract.

The Montreal Canadiens, who likely want to put the bulk of their cap dollars at the top of their lineup, won’t look to retain any of their free agents if it’s not advantageous to them from a contractual perspective. Thus, if Evans’s camp is able to sign a team-friendly deal, he’s likely going to stay put, as it would provide more value to the team long term than a late 1st-round pick.

However, if he were to go above 3.5M in asking, things may get a little dicey for the long-time Canadiens center, and may force the Canadiens to weight their options on the trade market.

They have a plan, and it would be surprising if they don’t stick to it. But, like the Carrier trade, they may not to effectively weaken their club too much, as to not hurt their goal of remaining in the playoff mix.